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????“如果你有本事讓一只好股下跌，那你也能讓它蓄勢上揚(yáng)。就象彈弓，你拉得越用力，推進(jìn)力就越大。” ????在2009年12月發(fā)表的題為“短線交易者青睞蘋果股的七大原因”（ Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It）的文章中，作家、投資咨詢顧問杰森 ? 斯瓦爾茲這樣描述這場對(duì)沖基金與蘋果之間的游戲。文章發(fā)表第二天我們還進(jìn)行了專題報(bào)道。 ????他提出的幾點(diǎn)中，有一點(diǎn)現(xiàn)在仍值得回味。當(dāng)時(shí)，這支股票的價(jià)位三個(gè)月以來都在低谷徘徊，而蘋果公司在那個(gè)周三將會(huì)發(fā)布創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的第二季度收益報(bào)告。 ????蘋果總能絕地反彈。從長期來看，蘋果的基本面將不斷推動(dòng)其股價(jià)上揚(yáng)。但對(duì)沖基金卻希望將收益最大化。拉低一支績優(yōu)股持續(xù)下跌，對(duì)沖基金就能從快速換手中獲利，而不必始終保持滿倉操作。 ????針對(duì)蘋果自今年三月末以來一直表現(xiàn)低迷，任何一位關(guān)注蘋果的投資者都可以列出個(gè)中緣由：日本海嘯和供應(yīng)鏈問題、iPad 2缺貨、iPhone 5延遲上市、納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)（NASDAQ-100）權(quán)重調(diào)整以及一直以來媒體對(duì)史蒂夫?喬布斯健康問題的炒作。 ????但請記住：直至上周五，蘋果股票的歷史市盈率為18.27，如果扣除其600億美元的現(xiàn)金及有價(jià)證券，這個(gè)數(shù)值則為14.7。 ????納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)成份股公司的平均市盈率為17。這其中有多少公司的年收益增長率能達(dá)到70%至80%呢？ ????蘋果股票本周會(huì)如何表現(xiàn)，我們現(xiàn)在還無從定論，但可以肯定的是，摩根大通（J.P Morgan）的馬克 ? 莫斯克維茲上周五發(fā)給客戶的關(guān)于蘋果公司的報(bào)告標(biāo)題是“蘋果[股價(jià)]回調(diào)過頭了。” |
????"If you can keep a good stock down, then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate." ????That's how Jason Schwarz, an author and investment adviser, described the game that hedge funds play with Apple (AAPL) in an article entitled "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," -- a Dec. 2009 piece we liked enough to feature the next day. ????One of the points he made then is worth remembering now, with the stock hovering near a three month low and the company expected to report record second fiscal quarter earnings on Wednesday: ????Apple always bounces back. Over the long run, Apple fundamentals will certainly take the stock higher, but hedge funds want to maximize the ride. Keeping a great stock down allows them to profit from quick predetermined trades rather than being fully invested all the time. ????Any Apple investor who's been paying attention can list the reasons being trotted out for the stock's dismal performance since late March: the Japanese tsunami and supply chain concerns, the iPad 2 stockouts, the iPhone 5 "delay," the NASDAQ-100 rebalancing and the usual concerns about Steve Jobs' health. ????But remember this: Apple's shares as of Friday had a trailing P/E of 18.27 -- 14.7 if you subtract out its nearly $60 billion in cash and marketable securities. ????The average P/E of the NASDAQ-100 is 17, and how many of those companies are growing their earning at 70% to 80% a year? ????We can't say for certain what Apple's shares will do next week. But we can report that the headline of the Apple note J.P Morgan's Mark Moskowitz sent to clients Friday was "The Pullback Is Overdone." |
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