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????吉姆?達(dá)林普本周一在The Loop網(wǎng)站上發(fā)表了一篇報(bào)道，稱蘋果公司（Apple）在今年六月的全球開發(fā)者大會(huì)（Worldwide Developers Conference）上將不會(huì)發(fā)布任何新硬件。幾位華爾街分析師最終總算明白了這篇報(bào)道的重要性。

????正如滿銀資本市場(chǎng)（BMO Capital）的分析師基思?巴克曼和杰富瑞公司（Jefferies & Co）的分析師彼得?米塞克本周三向客戶們所解釋的那樣，這篇報(bào)導(dǎo)意味著自從2007年以來，蘋果公司今年夏天將首次不推出一款新iPhone。

????消息一出，華爾街不出所料地出現(xiàn)了一些拋售行為。截止到當(dāng)天10點(diǎn)30分，蘋果股價(jià)下跌了3.05美元（0.9%）。美國知名金融分析師詹森?施瓦茨也在“尋找阿爾法”博客（Seeking Alpha）上發(fā)表了一篇“憤怒聲討博客圈”的博文，文章開頭就火藥味十足。

????“今天我們算是知道史蒂夫?喬布斯為什么不喜歡寫博的人了。”

????然后他繼續(xù)口誅筆伐，譏諷這則“最近的謠言”是從“博客圈的北大荒”里冒出來的。然后怒斥達(dá)林普和另一位在TechCrunch博客上發(fā)表了類似報(bào)道的博客寫手MG?西格勒是“想為自己揚(yáng)名立腕的無名博客人”。

????這從何說起呢？

????首先要聲明的是，關(guān)于蘋果是否發(fā)布、以及何時(shí)發(fā)布傳說中的iPhone 5，我們沒有任何內(nèi)幕消息。

????不過我們已經(jīng)關(guān)注西格勒和達(dá)林普很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間了，足夠明白這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)——施瓦茨分辨不出誰是好的博客人。

????多年以來，事實(shí)早已證明，西格勒在蘋果公司有極佳的新聞來源，而達(dá)林普的新聞來源可能更加可靠，他曾擔(dān)任《蘋果世界》（Macworld）的新聞總監(jiān)近10年之久。

????在我們輕易下定論之前，我想我們應(yīng)該先問問達(dá)林普，看看他那篇名為《今夏蘋果全球開發(fā)者大會(huì)將不會(huì)發(fā)布新iPhone、iPad或Mac硬件》（"No iPhone, iPad or Mac hardware coming at WWDC"）的博文里，究竟有多少信息如施瓦茨所說，是達(dá)林普根據(jù)全球開發(fā)者大會(huì)邀請(qǐng)函的措辭推測(cè)出來的；又有多少信息來自于他在蘋果公司的新聞來源。達(dá)林普回復(fù)道：

????“本文完全不是我的單方猜測(cè)。我有很好的新聞來源，他們已經(jīng)證實(shí)我本周一的博文屬實(shí)。”

????施瓦茨過去曾經(jīng)寫過一些很有道理的文章，分析了對(duì)沖基金如何能夠通過散布恐慌、不確定性和疑慮等情緒來操縱蘋果的股價(jià)（延伸閱讀：《乘上蘋果的火箭》）。最近有關(guān)iPhone 5的傳言沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)，這次施瓦茨在“尋找阿爾法”博客上發(fā)表的檄文的確為這個(gè)問題的探討做出了一些有用的貢獻(xiàn)。

????他寫道：“過去幾天里，蘋果的價(jià)格動(dòng)向波瀾不驚，說明有關(guān)iPhone 5的傳言并不是來自對(duì)沖基金。如果是對(duì)沖基金想要進(jìn)攻蘋果，那么蘋果的股價(jià)會(huì)下跌20美元。盡管蘋果的表現(xiàn)弱于大盤，不過它仍然頂住了關(guān)于iPhone 5的傳言的壓力，并在本周二以升幅收盤。一般來說在三四月份，3到5美元的跌價(jià)拋售是很正常的。如果超過這個(gè)幅度，就應(yīng)該引起我們的關(guān)注了。地球上每支對(duì)沖基金都知道你想趁三月份的低位買入蘋果，所以如果對(duì)沖基金想散布虛假謠言的話，他們不會(huì)選在這個(gè)時(shí)候，而最可能在蘋果股價(jià)處于高位，并且準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)行技術(shù)調(diào)整的時(shí)候出手。”

????長(zhǎng)見識(shí)了。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Several Wall Street analysts finally caught on to the significance of Jim Dalrymple's report in The LoopMonday that there would be no new hardware unveiled at Apple's (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

????What this may mean -- as BMO Capital's Keith Bachman and Jefferies & Co.'s Peter Misekexplained to clients Wednesday -- is that for the first time since 2007, summer will come and go without a new iPhone.

????All this triggered some predictable selling on Wall Street -- by 10:30 the stock was down $3.05 (0.9%) -- and a furious note on Seeking Alpha by Jason Schwarz that began with a bang:

????"Today we have a perfect example of why Steve Jobs hates bloggers."

????He goes on to ridicule the "latest rumor" out of the "wild west of a blogosphere" and to characterize Dalrymple and MG Siegler, who posted a similar report on TechCrunch, as "no-name bloggers looking to make a name for themselves."

????Well now. Where to begin?

????Let's stipulate at the outset that we don't have any inside information about when or even if Apple intends to release the much-rumored iPhone 5.

????But we've been following Siegler and Dalrymple long enough to recognize that Schwarz doesn't know a good blogger from a bad one.

????Siegler has proved over the years to have excellent Apple sources and Dalrymple, who was the news director at Macworld for nearly a decade, may have even better.

????But before we went too far out on a limb, we thought we'd ask Jim how much of his "No iPhone, iPad or Mac hardware coming at WWDC" post was, as Schwarz suggests, speculation based on the wording of the WWDC invitation, and how much came from his Apple sources. His reply:

????"This isn't speculation on my part at all. I have very good sources that have confirmed my Monday post to be true."

????Schwarz, who has written some sensible things in the past about how hedge funds can manipulate Apple's share price by spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt (see Riding the AAPL slingshot), does make a useful contribution to the discussion in his Seeking Alpha piece.

????"Apple's calm price action over the last few days," he writes, "would indicate that these iPhone 5 rumors did not originate among the hedge funds. If the hedge funds wanted to blast Apple, the stock would be down $20. Although Apple has underperformed the broad market, it was able to withstand the pressure of the iPhone 5 rumor to finish Tuesday in positive territory. $3 to $5 selloffs are typical during this March/April run; anything more than that would have us concerned. Every hedge fund on earth knows that you want to own Apple off the March low; if those guys wanted to spread a false rumor, they would most likely do it when Apple is at a high and ready for a technical correction."

????Good to know.