本文明確的七大趨勢必將對各類職業、創業機會、未來員工所需的技能產生影響。文中對未來大趨勢的預判旨在幫你了解可能會受哪些影響，以及今后需要為職業道路做怎樣的準備。

全球化：你真的不是一個人在戰斗！

當前全球商業正在發生重大轉變。咨詢公司麥肯錫預計，全球半數大企業都將把總部設在新興市場，如巴西、印度和東歐國家。由于世界范圍內競爭的壓力和其他因素，2000年曾入選《財富》美國500強的企業中，竟然有四成以上在2010年都落榜了，新上位的都是業界新貴和科技企業。

改變工作的定義：靈活適應完成新任務

什么是工作？在網上可以搜索工作的定義就不難發現，已經幾乎沒人會局限于谷歌搜索引擎提供的第一種定義：一個穩定的帶薪崗位。當然，我們干活拿薪水，但只從一個收入來源，還要穩定？

如今的工作更像是谷歌的第二種定義：一項任務或者某種工作的一部分，特別是帶薪的那種。眼下的新常態是，同時將多個職位合并在一起，或者聘請自由職業者完成一系列工作。

由于工作量不斷變化，無論勞動者的技能和意愿是否完全匹配，都要靈活適應完成任務。83%以上的高管告訴我們，今后幾年計劃增加臨時的兼職人員或者工作時間靈活的員工。這意味著，企業會為某個具體項目聘用具備相關技能的人才，而不再提供全職崗位。

工作完成的方式也在迅速轉變。隨著工作時間和個人時間相互交織，工作日和私人時間的界限也越來越模糊。工作不再指代某個場所，而是指一件事。

復雜性：越復雜，越挑戰

企業和個人都越來越復雜。在企業方面，隨著各國政府監管層級累加，復雜性隨之增加。而不同客戶的獨特需求，也將進一步增加這種復雜性。

在這種情況下，企業唯有精簡結構，進一步簡化流程、系統，重振企業文化，才能夠在未來擁有競爭優勢。

而對于個人而言，一方面要把握復雜形勢，另一方面要平衡各方面不斷增長的需求。斯坦福大學的研究者就指出了影響員工整體健康和幸福的許多壓力因素，包括長時間工作、對職業的不安全感、工作與家庭生活的沖突等。

相關研究一致認為，這些大趨勢將確立未來職場的格局。一些趨勢也許看來和日常生活無關，還有些趨勢可能正在經歷。但所有趨勢都有可能完全改變未來的工作方式，還有可能令很多人，甚至某些領域的專家徹底過時。

人口結構變化：退休年齡整整延長了10歲！

在全球多個經濟體，醫療保健的進步和出生率下降已經導致人口老齡化、勞動力規模萎縮。隨著國民壽命和工作年限延長，預計當前大部分勞動人口的平均退休年齡將為66歲。這整整延長了10歲！二十年前評價退休年齡是57歲。

在大部分國家，千禧一代是目前人數最多的勞動群體。他們通過社交媒體積極發聲，日漸改變了職場文化。

數據爆炸：重新會學挖掘新機會

專家預計，2009至2020年，數據總量將增長43倍。一些數據是過去的存量內容，可以很方便地導入這些數據庫，另外一些日漸增長的數據則是非結構化的，例如來自Twitter、Instagram、Facebook、Vine等社交媒體網站的數據。

認真挖掘數據并從中找出消費趨勢的機構，將成為未來市場的領軍人物。

新興科技：機器人來了！

在眾多新興的科技之中，機器人是尤為值得一提的。到2030年，預計日本人口三分之一超過65歲，每五人中有一人年逾75歲，老年人看護的需求極大。這就難怪日本在研發服務型機器人方面走在最前面了。

在一家2015年新開的酒店里，一款名為Actroid的仿真機器人已經上崗，為客人們提供入住服務。此外，一些護理機構里也正興起讓機器人參與看護。這些都意味著護理行業許多入門級工作將不再需要人類。

氣候變化：每個人都在碳排放計算之列

氣候變化未來將對經濟產生很大影響。經合組織預計，到2050年，全世界40%以上的人口都將遭遇嚴重的水資源壓力，而面臨洪災或者旱災風險的資產價值，更是會增長至創紀錄的高位。

節省資源是一項社會責任，也有益于節省成本。政府控制能耗、浪費、漏水、城市擁堵、運輸效率、土地退化、貨運影響等其他因素的監管措施越來越多，企業應該適應形勢，允許員工遠程工作，這不但可以削減對硬件設施的需求，也能夠幫助企業盡量減少碳排放。（財富中文網）

本文節選自卡里?威利爾德和芭芭拉?米絲蒂克合著的《伸展力：如何為未來的職場做好準備》。

譯者：Pessy

校對：夏林

We have identified seven megatrends that will certainly have an impact on the types of jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, and skills needed for workers in the future. This big-picture review is meant to help you see how they might affect you, and what you will need to do to prepare for the workplace of tomorrow.

Globalization

A major shift in where business is conducted is occurring now. McKinsey estimates that half of the world’s largest companies will be headquartered in what are now emerging markets, such as Brazil, India, and eastern European countries. Pressure from global competition and other factors resulted in over 40% of the companies that were in the Fortune 500 in 2000 falling off the list by 2010. These were replaced largely by new global entrants and technology companies.

Redefined Jobs

What is a job? Look over a few definitions on the web and it’s easy to see that few of us are still limited to Google’s first meaning: “a paid position of regular employment.” Sure, we have paid work, but from only one source and in a regular fashion?

Instead, the definition of a job looks more like the second meaning from Google: “a task or piece of work, especially one that is paid.” Piecing together multiple gigs at the same time or freelancing in a series of work-for-hire roles is a new normal. The nature of fluctuating workloads requires moving to meet those needs, whether your skills and motivation match or not. Over 83% of executives told us that they plan on increasing their use of contingent, part-time, or flexible workers in the next few years. Those with in-demand skills will be hired to accomplish one specific project, rather than given a full-time position.

The nature of how work gets done is rapidly shifting. Even the lines between workday and personal time are blurring, since work and personal time blend and overlap. Work is no longer a place, but a thing.

Complexity

Complexity is increasing for both organizations and individuals. At the organizational level, complexity multiplies with layers upon layers of government regulations, in multiple countries, combined with requirements from customers with their own unique specifications.

Organizations that can streamline and simplify structures, processes, systems, and cultures will have the competitive advantage in the future.

At the individual level, the need to master this complexity and balance competing demands is also on the increase. Stanford researchers identified a number of stressors that affect overall health and wellness for employees, including long hours, job insecurity, work-family conflict, and others.

Studies agree resoundingly that these megatrends are forging the working landscape of the future. Some trends may seem far removed from your everyday world; others you may already be experiencing. All of them have the potential to change the way we work in substantial ways, threatening to make many people and even experts in their fields obsolete.

Demographics Shifts

In many economies around the world, advances in healthcare and declining birth rates have resulted in a population that is graying and a workforce that is shrinking. People are living and working longer, with the average retirement age for most people working now expected to be 66, up from 57 two decades ago.

Millennials are now the largest generation in the workplace in most countries, and their voices, connected through social media, will increasingly alter the workplace culture.

Explosion of Data

Experts estimate that from 2009 to 2020, data will grow 4300%. That data will be in the form of content from the past that can be readily structured into a database, and will also increasingly include unstructured data such as that found in social media sites like Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Vine, and so on.

Organizations that can mine this data to reveal customer trends will lead the markets of the future.

Emerging Technologies

One of the many emerging technologies worthy of mention is robotics. Japan is expecting one in three of its population to be over the age of 65 by 2030, and one in five to be over 75, creating a major requirement for the care of the elderly. Not surprisingly then, Japan is on the leading edge of using robots in service roles. A hotel opened in Japan in 2015 with lifelike robots, called actroids, serving as the check-in staff. Aid assistance in nursing facilities is on the horizon, meaning many of the entry-level jobs in those areas will become obsolete.

Climate change

Climate change will have a strong economic impact in the future. The OECD anticipates that by 2050, more than 40% of the world’s population will live under severe water stress, resulting in floods or drought that, combined, can put the economic value of assets at risk at record highs.

Becoming efficient with resources is socially responsible and cost beneficial. Organizations need to adapt to increasing regulations controlling energy efficiency, waste, water leakage, urban congestion, transportation efficiency, land degradation, freight impact, and other factors. Allowing employees to work virtually also reduces the need for facilities and helps organizations minimize their carbon footprints.

This article is excerpted from STRETCH: How to Future-Proof Yourself for Tomorrow’s Workplace by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Copyright 2016 by Karie Willyerd and Barbara Mistick. Published by Wiley; used by permission. All rights reserved. This book is available at all bookstores and online booksellers.