????上個月底，中國政府宣布取消實行了30多年的獨生子女政策，允許一對夫婦生育兩個孩子。中央政府并未解釋政策為何轉變，但分析師指出，此舉正逢其時，作為全球第二大經濟體，中國的適齡勞動人口正在減少，越來越多國民步入老年，這引起政府擔憂。

????然而，這一人口政策變化產生了新問題，其中之一就是對職業女性的影響。世界銀行數據顯示，中國64%的勞動者都是女性。不少分析師和社會學家認為，大批中國女性之所以能躋身企業管理層，也要歸功于國內自1980年推行的獨生子女政策。

????此言不虛。設在上海的市場研究公司胡潤研究院新近發布的報告披露，十大白手起家的女性億萬富豪多數來自中國。百度、SOHO中國等多家知名企業都有女高管的身影。阿里巴巴集團董事局主席馬云此前甚至公開表示，女性是阿里“成功的秘訣”。

????不過，對于新政策的影響，美國喬治城大學麥克多諾商學院的戰略與經濟學教授亞瑟·董表示，人口新政并不會妨礙中國女性在職場上更上一層樓。他說：“憑借自身的積極進取和對個人成就的奮斗期望，中國女性在商界取得了巨大進步。眾多女性進入大學深造，尋求獲得專業領域的高學位。”

????中國有依靠家人的傳統，假如要撫養好幾個孩子，職業女性倒可能得到家人幫助。亞瑟·董這樣解釋：“中國的小夫妻通常會依賴家中長輩，在夫妻二人忙于工作的時候，祖輩會伸出援手，照看孫輩。對許多家庭來說，這是一種歷史悠久的傳統，長輩也愿意接受。”

????另外，新政策可能促使一些有遠見的企業增加現場托兒設施，更便于育兒的女員工回到工作崗位。

????但另外一些中國觀察者認為，這次的政策調整可能導致職場性別歧視更為普遍，企業可能覺得女性會花更多時間照顧孩子，所以變得不愿雇用女員工。2010年一項有關中國女性平等就業權利的研究顯示，70%以上的女性受訪者覺得自己沒有得到就業或者提拔的機會是由于性別原因。

????對很多女性而言，生養第二個孩子的影響，更多是關乎家庭收入而非個人事業。上海一家投資公司的首席財務官告訴《財富》雜志，他認為二胎政策不會影響白領女性，因為“與其說是政策在限制，不如說是因為生育意愿。生了孩子之后，家庭開銷負擔加重，這種影響很大。”

????近些年，養育孩子的成本增加成為中國人越來越擔心的問題。倫敦經濟研究顧問公司Capital Economics的研究人員在最近一份報告中寫道：“任何人口政策調整，城鎮居民都是最大的受益者。可他們普遍不想多生孩子。”報告提到，2013年一項調查顯示，將近半數城鎮居民不想多生養孩子。

????市場數據供應與分析機構歐睿信息咨詢有限公司的研究經理喬伊·黃說：“為了孩子，只要買得起，中國的父母就會挑選最好的嬰兒產品。因此，兒童產品占家庭支出的很大一部分。”黃所說的兒童產品是指進口的配方牛奶、減少空氣污染的空氣凈化器等商品。

????短期來看，新的人口政策可能不會影響中國的勞動力結構。但再過幾十年也許就會出現難以預計的后果，因為更多的女性不得不面臨抉擇，是要晉升到管理層還是以家庭為重，保證養育孩子的時間充裕，或者她們得設法在兩者之間取得平衡。

????放開“二孩”的消息傳出后不久，我和一個中國中產階級女性朋友聊過此事。她新婚燕爾，正在考慮懷孕生子。她對新政策表示歡迎，但又擔心女性專注在工作上的時間會減少。“很多人會說，女同志兼顧不了，”她頓了頓又說，“可事實上，女人能力很強。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：Pessy

????校對：詹妮

????China lifted its decades-old one-child policy, allowing families to have two children. While the central government didn’t explain its reasons, analysts say the move comes at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is worried about a drop in its working-age population and its growing ranks of elderly people.

????One of the questions raised by the change is how it will affect women in the workforce. Women comprise 64% of China’s workforce, according to World Bank data, and many analysts and sociologists have said China’s one-child policy, which was put in place in 1980, contributed to the large number of women climbing the corporate ladder.

????Indeed, a recent research report by Shanghai-based market research firm Hurun revealed that a majority of the top 10 self-made billionaire women came from China. Many of the nation’s high-profile companies, such as Baidu and SOHO China, have female executives and Alibaba CEO Jack Ma has gone as far as saying women are his company’s “secret sauce.”

????Georgetown professor Arthur Dong, who teaches strategy and economics at the McDonough School of Business, said he doesn’t expect the new policy to deter women from pursuing high-powered careers. “Women in China have made great strides in the business world as a result of their ambition and expectation of what is attainable,” he said. “Women are enrolling in college and seeking advanced professional degrees in large numbers.”

????China’s tradition of relying on family may help working women when it comes to caring for multiple children. “Often, couples will rely on extended family. Grandma or grandpa to step in and mind the child while the couple is working,” Dong said. “For many families this is a time-honored tradition and one that grandparents willingly accept.”

????In addition, the new policy may spur forward-thinking companies to increase on-site childcare to make it more convenient for employees to return to work.

????But other China watchers say the shift may make gender discrimination in the workplace more prevalent, as companies could become reluctant to hire women, knowing they may take more time off to have children. In a 2010 study of women’s equal employment rights in China, more than 70% of respondents said they thought they were not hired or promoted because of their gender.

????For many women, the impact of having a second child may be less about their career and more about their family’s finances. The CFO of an investment company in Shanghai told Fortune that he didn’t think the two-children policy would affect women in the office because “it’s not about the restriction, but more about the willingness to give birth, which is fairly restricted by the high burden of financial cost.” (The executive asked that his name be withheld over concerns about how the government would view his comments.)

????Concern over growing costs of raising children in China has been rising in recent years. “Urban residents, who would be the biggest beneficiaries of any changes in the rules, do not generally appear to want more children,” researchers from London-based Capital Economics wrote in a recent note, citing a 2013 survey that showed nearly 50% of urban residents do not desire multiple children.

????“Chinese parents would choose the best baby-related products they could afford for their children, hence, baby-related products account for a big part of the family cost,” said Euromonitor International research manager Joy Huang, referring to buying products such as imported milk formula and air purifiers to combat pollution.

????In the short term, the policy probably won’t have an effect on the workforce. But over the next few decades, there could be unforeseen consequences, as more women have to choose between—or try to balance—moving into executive positions and having ample time to raise their children.

????Shortly after the news broke, I asked a Chinese middle-class female friend who’s recently married and thinking about getting pregnant. She said she liked the new rules, but was concerned about women having less time to concentrate on work. “Many people will say women can’t do this,” she said, before pausing and adding, “but the fact is women have a lot of abilities.”