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????從商業計劃到選舉結果，預測性分析在消除不確定性方面已經做了很多工作，它的下一個目標則是學生們的考試成績。

????美國高校及中學在線教育服務商Desire2Learn首席執行官約翰?貝克表示，該公司的新技術能提前幾個月預測學生的期末考試成績，而且能精確到小數點后兩位。

????這是一種實時預測，也就是說并非一成不變。如果學生加以努力，就能很輕松地改變Desire2Learn預估的期末成績。貝克指出，這就是要點所在，預測成績的作用就是讓學生和教師在學期遠未結束時就能發現哪些人有考試不及格的趨勢。

????貝克說：“最重要的一點并不是告訴學生‘你得這樣做’，而是真正有助于（建立）一種教育體系，從而讓每個人都獲得專門為自己定制的學習體驗。”

????這種新技術叫做學生過關系統（Student Success System）。它能綜合考慮學生對一門課程中關鍵概念的理解以及他們按要求完成家庭作業的情況，預測他們的成績。教師可以在整個學期中跟蹤學生的學習進展，以確保他們能順利通過期末考試。

????學生過關系統是Desire2Learn現有學習平臺Degree Compass的補充。這個平臺能根據以往的學習情況向學生們推薦適合他們學習風格、并且最有可能通過考試的課程。今年1月份，Desire2Learn從奧斯汀皮耶州立大學（Austin Peay University）手中收購了Degree Compass，但沒有披露交易金額。貝克說，從那時起，通過這個平臺選課的學生已超過70萬人次。因此，Degree Compass按字母評分制預測成績的準確率達90%——甚至可以在課程開始前就做出預測（貝克認為判斷學生過關系統的準確程度還為時過早）。貝克指出，目前使用Degree Compass的有四所大學——奧斯汀皮耶州立大學、孟菲斯大學（University of Memphis）和兩所社區大學，預計其他高校將很快成為這個平臺的用戶。今年夏天，Desire2Learn將向幾十位用戶推出學生過關系統。

????在奧斯汀皮耶州立大學，Degree Compass已經改變了學生們的學習情況。這項技術的發明者、該校教務長特里斯坦?登利表示，2011年春天使用該系統以來，學校的整體及格率提高了2個百分點，佩爾獎學金（Pell Grant，側重于來自低收入家庭的本科生）發放對象的及格率更是上升了4個百分點。在后者的人際圈子里，上過大學而且支持他們念大學的人通常較少。登利說：“看到通過率有這種幅度的提升，而且確確實實覆蓋了從大一到大四各種層次的學生，很難再到其他地方去尋找原因。”

????From business plans to election outcomes, predictive analytics have come a long way in eliminating uncertainty. Next on the list of targets: student GPAs.

????New technology from Desire2Learn, an education company offering online learning tools to colleges and high schools across the country, is able to predict a student's final grade -- down to the percentage -- months before the final exam, says Desire2Learn CEO John Baker.

????The predictions are in real time, meaning they are not set in stone, and a boost in effort or studying can easily change the estimated final grade. And that's the point, says Baker; for students and teachers to recognize a student is headed toward a failing grade before it's too late in the semester.

????"The biggest thing," says Baker, "is not just driving towards, 'okay, here's how you're going to do,' but really helping to [build] an education system that personalizes the experience to each individual."

????The new technology, simply called the Student Success System, is able to make predictions by incorporating a student's understanding of key concepts of a given course and whether or not they are keeping up with the required homework. Teachers can track a student's progress throughout the semester to ensure they stay on track to pass the class.

????This new system acts as a complement to the company's existing Degree Compass platform, which uses a student's academic history to suggest courses that fit their learning style and offer the best chance for a passing grade. Desire2Learn bought Degree Compass from Austin Peay University in January for an undisclosed sum and has since run more than 700,000 course enrollments through the program, says Baker. As a result, Degree Compass can successfully predict letter grades with 90% accuracy -- all before a student ever begins taking the class. (It is too early to tell how accurate the Student Success System is, says Baker.) Four schools -- Austin Peay, the University of Memphis, and two community colleges -- currently use Degree Compass, with others expected to join in the near future, says Baker. The Student Success System will roll out to a few dozen Desire2Learn clients beginning this summer.

????At Austin Peay, Degree Compass has already made a difference for students. Since implementing the program in spring of 2011, Austin Peay has seen a 2% increase in students passing classes university-wide and a 4% jump among Pell Grant students, who often have fewer college-educated supporters in their personal circles, says the technology's creator and university provost Tristan Denley. "When you see this same kind of increase in student success, which is literally all across the board freshmen through seniors at every level, it's difficult to look in another direction to find the cause," says Denley. These increases are significant, he adds, because it expedites the graduation process and saves students time and money.