美國就業報告：光鮮面子難掩破爛里子
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????鋪天蓋地的壞消息讓美國人惶惶不可終日，人們擔心美國可能馬上就要重新陷入經濟衰退了。好在日前公布的美國就業市場月度報告終于讓我們看到了一個好兆頭（盡管并不明朗）：或許事情并沒有想象得那么糟糕。 ????今年7月份，美國新增就業崗位117,000個，使失業率從6月份的9.2%小幅下降到9.1%。這是從4月份以來，單月職位增加最多的月份。遠遠超過6月份原先報道的，凈增加18,000個工作崗位。 ????這一變化肯定會使美國迅速陷入經濟衰退的可能性降低，至少高盛投資公司（Goldman Sachs）是這么認為。關于經濟衰退，這家投資銀行提出了一個有趣的經驗法則。高盛預測，如果三個月平均失業率上升超過0.3%，則經濟要么已經陷入衰退，要么將在六個月內陷入衰退。 ????在公布7月份就業報告之前，三個月的平均失業率為9.07%，而四月份為8.9%。如果7月份的失業率上升到9.3%，并持續到8月份，便會達到高盛公司預測的臨界點。 ????但從這份月度報告中，我們也只能讀出這些信息。經濟持續數周的低迷表現在上周四終于達到了定點，美國股市遭遇了自2008年經濟危機以來最慘淡的一天。在這種情況下，任何好消息都會被放大。而市場似乎也意識到了這一點——周五，美國股市經歷高開之后便迅速掉頭下挫。 ????雖然失業率小幅下跌，但主要是由于活躍的求職者人數有所減少——這表明求職者或許對于進入就業市場缺乏自信。7月份，參與求職的人數減少了193,000。 ????而且，盡管7月份新增了117,000個工作崗位，卻遠遠達不到150,000個工作崗位的單月需求。而這一數字則是保持人口增長，避免失業率進一步上升所必需的。而為了降低失業率，則需要至少兩倍于這個數字的工作崗位。 ????資本經濟公司（Capital Economics）的經濟學家保羅?戴爾斯寫道：“宏觀上來看，自經濟衰退結束后兩年內，就業市場并未真正好轉，甚至出現了倒退。盡管這份報告能夠稍微緩解民眾對美國迅速陷入經濟衰退的擔憂，但關鍵在于，經濟依然在苦苦掙扎，而且明年的情況也不會有任何好轉。” ????因此，即使眼下經濟消息面看來不再那么糟糕，但依然不容樂觀。 ????（翻譯 劉進龍） |
????Phew! After the spate of bad economic data that propelled fears that the U.S. could soon slip back into an economic recession, today's monthly report on the state of the jobs market has given us a sign – albeit a modest one – that things might not be as bad as we thought. ????The unemployment rate in July fell slightly to 9.1% from 9.2% the previous month as the economy added 117,000 jobs. This is the largest amount of jobs added in a month since April. And far more than the 18,000 net new jobs originally reported in June. ????Certainly this makes it less likely that the U.S. could fall back into a recession soon, at least according to Goldman Sachs (GS). The investment bank has come up with an interesting rule of thumb on recessions. It estimates that if the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises by more than three-tenths of a percentage point, the economy has either entered a recession already or will do so within six months. ????Prior to July's report, the three-month average unemployment rate was 9.07%, up from 8.9% in April. If July's rate had increased to 9.3% and stayed there in August, it would have met Goldman's threshold. ????But we can only read so much into today's monthly report. After weeks of bad economic news that on Thursday culminated in the stock market's worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, it's easy to inflate any good news. The market seemed to realize that -- after jumping at the opening bell on Friday, stocks quickly reversed course. ????The unemployment rate might have fallen slightly but that's mostly because the number of people actively looking for jobs fell back – signaling that perhaps workers are feeling less confident about entering the job market. In July, labor participation fell by 193,000. ????What's more, though the economy added 117,000 jobs, it falls short of the 150,000 jobs a month needed just to keep up with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from trending higher. And it would take at least twice that many to rapidly reduce unemployment. ????"The bigger picture, then, is that two years after the recession ended the labor market has not really recovered at all, and may even have gone backwards," writes economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "Even though immediate recession fears may fade a little on the back of this report, the key point is that the economy is still struggling and will continue to do so next year too." ????So even if the spate of bad economic news is now looking just a little less bad, it's still bad. |
