2020年可能會是歐洲汽車制造商的轉(zhuǎn)折點。嚴格的二氧化碳排放目標將開始分階段執(zhí)行，但恰恰在此時走到了十字路口的汽車行業(yè)依然在坎坷地從污染型柴油和汽油引擎向電動轉(zhuǎn)型。

新二氧化碳排放規(guī)定將讓轉(zhuǎn)型更加難以捉摸。與以往不同的是，歐洲汽車行業(yè)真的很有可能無法實現(xiàn)其強制性的歐洲車輛排放目標，而且有可能面臨著高達數(shù)億歐元的巨額罰款。

這一現(xiàn)象也為汽車行業(yè)前景蒙上了陰影。汽車制造商通常會根據(jù)所有趨勢數(shù)據(jù)和消費特征來設(shè)定生產(chǎn)和銷售目標。此外，他們也會留意像就業(yè)和薪資增長這些宏觀因素，但這些在歐洲來說都屬于確定因素，因為歐元區(qū)預計在2020年增速預計為羸弱的1.2%。有鑒于即將實施的二氧化碳合規(guī)標準，有一件事是肯定的——各大汽車制造商將懷念2019年的美好時光。

普華永道Autofacts部門的全球首席分析師克里斯托弗·斯特姆向《財富》雜志透露：“從2020年1月開始，銷售梅賽德斯AMG或12缸汽車將受到罰款，因此汽車制造商現(xiàn)在便已經(jīng)為這些車上了牌照，這樣便不會拖累其2020年的二氧化碳排放目標。預計銷量將在12月飛漲。”他在去年12月說：“這可能是歐洲有史以來生意最好的保時捷銷售月。”

重型越野車的上牌，例如寶馬X5，在過去兩個月中每月的銷量增速均高于40%，而跑車銷量在去年10月躍升了67%，原因在于汽車制造商急于確保其大排量車型能夠在去年12月31日之前上牌。整個歐洲均出現(xiàn)了類似的趨勢。歐洲汽車制造商協(xié)會于去年12月17日報道稱，在過去三個月，歐洲新車注冊出現(xiàn)了飆升。

然而，這個好景可能不會長遠。通過提前釋放需求來清理其高污染車型庫存，汽車制造商可能已經(jīng)為今年1月銷售額的暴跌埋下了伏筆。

汽車行業(yè)協(xié)會VDA的負責人伯納德·馬蒂斯稱：“二氧化碳排放規(guī)定為2020年的汽車行業(yè)蒙上了陰影。”該協(xié)會預測，歐洲2020年的汽車銷售額將因為預期的宿醉效應出現(xiàn)2%的降幅。

合規(guī)之痛……

有鑒于道路運輸排放的溫室氣體占歐洲總量的五分之一，布魯塞爾正在嚴厲打擊轎車、貨車和卡車的碳排放。更糟糕的是，它依然是經(jīng)濟中那個一直都沒能將其碳印記降至其1990基準水平的行業(yè)。

因此，汽車制造商將被迫在2021年前將其車輛的二氧化碳印記從2018年的120.4克/公里降至平均95克/公里，不過，該規(guī)定只會影響路面上的一小部分車輛。電動和混動汽車依然只不過是整個歐洲汽車市場不起眼的小角色。此外，盡管某些國家提供了豐厚的補貼，而且存在穩(wěn)健的需求，但電動和混動汽車也不大可能在近期幫助汽車制造商實現(xiàn)其排放目標。

由于合規(guī)基本都靠汽車制造商來完成（而不是消費者），很多汽車制造商不得不采取一些激進的措施。一位資深行業(yè)游說人士向《財富》透露：“我們不時聽到，一些汽車制造商已經(jīng)為其經(jīng)銷商分配了其自有的二氧化碳車輛具體排放目標，并對激勵結(jié)構(gòu)進行了相應調(diào)整。”

這僅僅是個開始：布魯塞爾已經(jīng)提出了進一步的強制性限令，2030年達到約60克/公里，但即便如此，這一標準也有可能進一步收緊。委員會新總裁烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩于去年12月初公布了一項計劃，旨在建議歐洲議會和會員國家在2021年6月之前對這一額外的37.5%碳排放削減幅度進行上調(diào)。

汽車行業(yè)的前景也并不樂觀。該行業(yè)用了6年的時間才將二氧化碳平均排放量減少了22克/公里。如今，他們依然需要實現(xiàn)類似的降幅，但剩余的時間卻只有兩年。不幸的是，碳排放趨勢如今還出現(xiàn)了反轉(zhuǎn)，車輛排放量在過去兩年中一直在增加。戴姆勒如今預計，公司2020年僅在二氧化碳排放合規(guī)方面就得花費10多億歐元。

有消息稱，正是因為如此，汽車制造商打算將低排放量車輛的交付日期推遲數(shù)周，以確保這些車輛的上牌能夠為2020年目標的實現(xiàn)提供助力。

首款保時捷Taycan電動跑車在去年12月交付給美國客戶，但歐洲客戶要到今年1月才能拿到新車。通過這種方式，每一方都能保證履行母公司大眾的二氧化碳減排目標。

工業(yè)研究公司LMC Automotive在一篇研究紀要中寫道：“我們已經(jīng)開始看到，有鑒于即將實施的監(jiān)管規(guī)定，汽車制造商正在利用季節(jié)來做文章。”

外界預計，西歐市場去年第四季度的銷量將較以往增長7.5%；到了2020年，銷量可能會降至“令人沮喪”的1%。

……前途并非一片渺茫

歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟基本面實際上能夠為2020年穩(wěn)健的需求提供支持。去年第三季度，消費者信心高于歷史平均水平，通脹調(diào)整后的薪資增速依然沒有放緩的跡象，去年10月的失業(yè)率為7.5%，創(chuàng)2008年7月以來的新低。歐盟的整體失業(yè)率依然低于2000年1月歐盟有記錄以來的水平。

然而，德國經(jīng)銷商預計私人零售客戶在2020年的汽車銷量將成為重災區(qū)，至少與企業(yè)購車者相比是這樣。他們預測汽車市場零售領(lǐng)域的降幅將高達18%，因為汽車制造商可能會人為限制其熱賣SUV車型的出貨量，以確保能夠符合歐盟碳排放上限的規(guī)定。

斯德莫說：“通常影響汽車銷量的兩大因素為失業(yè)率和利率。但在了解這兩大因素之后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)人們在2020年沒有理由不去買車。唯一可能會讓人們對購車感到猶豫的事情在于，他們無法買到自己心儀的車型，原因可能是因為OEM廠商無法或不愿提供這些車型。”

換句話說，保時捷經(jīng)銷商在2020年將不得不勸說消費者：忘了保時捷911吧，不妨試駕一下Taycan車型。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

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This year could be a watershed moment for Europe’s automakers. Strict carbon dioxide emission targets are being phased in just at a time when the sector is at a crossroads as it continues on its bumpy ride away from polluting diesel and petrol engines towards electric.

The new CO2 rules will make the transition all the trickier. Never before has the industry faced the very real possibility of flunking its mandated European fleet emission target, risking enormous fines that could run into the hundreds of millions of euros.

It's also muddying the outlook. Automakers typically set production and sales goals against all kinds of trend data and consumption patterns. Plus, they look at macro factors such as employment and wage growth, which in Europe is anything but certain with the euro area expected to grow a meager 1.2 percent in 2020. Add to it looming CO2 compliance standards and there's only one thing anyone can agree upon—carmakers are going to be longing for the good ol’ days of 2019.

“Selling a Mercedes AMG, or a 12-cylinder car is going to be punished starting from January so carmakers are getting them number plates now in order not to wreck their CO2 in 2020. Expect a crazy December,” Christoph Stürmer, Global Lead Analyst at PwC Autofacts, told Fortune. “It could be one of the strongest Porsche months ever in Europe,” he said of December.

Registrations of heavy off-road vehicles like a BMW X5 have already surged 40 percent or more in Germany in each of the past two months while sports cars jumped 67 percent in last October, as automakers rushed to ensure the worst of its gas guzzlers are registered before December 31st. A similar trend can be seen across Europe. There has been a surge in new vehicle registrations across Europe in the past three months, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported on December 17.

A reckoning could be just around the corner, however. By pulling forward demand to clear out inventories of their biggest polluters, automakers could be sewing the seeds of a sales slump come January.

“The CO2 regulations are casting their shadow on 2020,” said Bernhard Mattes, head of the country’s auto industry association VDA. It is forecasting a drop in vehicle sales of 2 percent in Europe this year due to the expected hangover.

Compliance headaches...

Brussels is cracking down hard on carbon emissions from cars, vans and trucks, since road transport accounts for one-fifth of all greenhouse gases in the EU. Worse, it remains the one sector of the economy that has consistently failed to lower its carbon footprint over benchmark 1990 levels.

Carmakers will therefore be required to reduce their fleet’s CO2 footprint to an average of 95 grams per kilometer by 2021 from 120.4 g/km recorded for 2018, even though this affects only a small portion of vehicles on the road. Electric and hybrid-electric vehicles are still a tiny sliver of the overall European car market, and, despite generous subsidies available in certain countries and healthy demand, are unlikely to help automakers meet their emissions goals any time soon.

Since compliance falls heavily on the manufacturers (rather than consumers) many automakers have had to take some drastic measures. “We’ve been hearing that some carmakers have assigned their dealers their own specific CO2 fleet emissions target and changed the incentive structure accordingly,” a senior industry lobbyist told Fortune.

This is only the beginning: Brussels has mandated a further limit of roughly 60 g/km for 2030 and even that might be tightened. New Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed last week plans to propose to the EU Parliament and member states an upward revision by June 2021 of this additional 37.5 percent reduction.

The outlook isn’t looking good, either. It took six full years to lower CO2 by 22 g/km on average. Now they have just one-third of that time to achieve a similar reduction. Unfortunately the trend has reversed, and fleet emissions have been on the rise for the past two years. Daimler now expects it will incur costs of over 1 billion euros next year alone on CO2 compliance.

Anecdotal evidence suggest manufacturers are therefore attempting to delay delivery of low emitting vehicles to customers by several weeks to ensure their registration is counted towards next year’s targets.

The first Porsche Taycan electric sports cars will be delivered for U.S. customers on last December, but Europeans won’t get them until January. That way each is guaranteed to count towards the CO2 fleet target of parent company Volkswagen.

“We are already starting to see seasonal distortion coming into play as a result of impending regulatory hurdles,” wrote industry research firm LMC Automotive in a research note.

It estimates the western European market will be 7.5 percentage points stronger in the fourth quarter than it otherwise would have been; for 2020, volumes could slide a “rather disappointing” 1 percent.

...And yet positive road signs

Economic fundamentals for the euro area actually support solid demand next year. Consumer confidence is above its historical average, wage growth adjusted for inflation continued at a brisk pace in the third quarter and unemployment reached 7.5 percent in October, a low not seen since July, 2008. Overall Joblessness throughout the entire EU remained beneath the January 2000 level when records began.

And yet, dealers in Germany expect volumes from private retail customers to be particularly affected next year—at least compared with corporate car buyers. They forecast a hefty 18 percent decline for this retail segment of the market as carmakers may artificially limit availability of their popular SUV models to ensure compliance with EU caps.

“Usually the two limiting factors for car sales are unemployment and interest rates. And looking at those, there’s no reason for people not to buy cars next year,” said Stürmer. “The only thing that could actually keep people from doing so is that they can’t get what they want, either because the OEMs cannot, or will not supply them.”

In other words, Porsche dealers in 2020 will be putting the hard sell on customers to forget Porsche 911s and instead give the Taycan a test-drive.