愛出風頭的埃隆·馬斯克天生就善于把握時機，他把最新的重大消息留給了德國汽車行業也許是最負盛名的慶典。

11月12日，在柏林舉行的金方向盤獎（Golden Steering Wheel）頒獎典禮上，德國頂尖企業高管云集，馬斯克透露說他期待已久的歐洲超級工廠（European Gigafactory）將落戶柏林，同時還將在當地建立研發中心。

梅賽德斯-奔馳等汽車廠商正想方設法在歐洲實施碳排放限制政策前降低自家產品的排放水平，同時，它們又要面臨新的壓力，而且這股壓力還是來自一家在電動化方面遙遙領先并通過創新來改變汽車行業的公司。投資者賦予特斯拉的市值已經超過了寶馬，看來是已經認可了這一點。但整體而言，特斯拉在德國的銷量僅占整個德國市場的0.3%。

分析師指出，要想在歐洲取得長期成功，特斯拉就必須擴大在德國的市場份額。

蓋斯林根市汽車行業研究機構IfA的主管斯特凡·賴因德爾告訴《財富》雜志：“馬斯克想傳遞的信息是他在德國這個歐洲最大市場能頂的住（國內競爭）。雖然他確實無法違背德國汽車行業的規律，比如高工資和能源成本，但這仍然是一個非常大膽而且具有標志性的決定。”

Model Y，然后是Model 3

上述消息公布后不久，馬斯克就在推特上說柏林工廠“將制造電池、動力總成和整車，而且將從Model Y（中型跨界車）開始。”隨后計劃生產的是和Model Y非常接近的Model 3。

11月13日上午開盤一小時后，特斯拉的股價上漲了0.8%。而大眾、戴姆勒和寶馬在德國股市的最后一小時交易中均告下跌。

特斯拉的超級工廠將設在靠近柏林的勃蘭登堡州，毗鄰在建的柏林勃蘭登堡機場。它將使用可再生能源電力，包括風能、太陽能等，以確保自身的經營活動不會產生碳排放。當地政府打算將Grünheide一塊面積300公頃的土地賣給特斯拉。差不多20年前寶馬決定不在此處投資建廠后，這塊地就一直處于荒棄狀態。消息人士稱，特斯拉超級工廠一期擴建后有望直接創造3500個就業機會。

“貧窮但性感”

用受歡迎的前市長克勞斯·沃維萊特的話說，“貧窮但性感”的柏林以在德國引領潮流而著稱。柏林擁有充滿活力的移動初創行業和很高的技術水平，它的波西米亞氛圍還吸引著有創造力的年輕人，因此很契合特斯拉的形象。

對打算吸引大公司以及未來行業的柏林來說，這也將是一大成就。

IfA的主管賴因德爾說：“把廠址選在柏林/勃蘭登堡州，可以讓馬斯克區別于德國的那些老牌競爭對手。特斯拉設立超級工廠的決定有望打消外界對電動汽車前景的疑慮，提升人們對此項技術的信心，對德國車企的消費者及其員工來說都是如此。由此出現的拉動效應甚至可能對德國汽車行業產生有利影響。”

馬斯克挑選的時機也很好，因為本月初公布的行業數據顯示，今年第三季度德國超過了挪威，首次成為歐洲最大的電池電動汽車市場。

但不看好特斯拉的人士警告說，馬斯克的計劃也給當地帶來了風險。特斯拉設在美國布法羅的2號超級工廠主要生產太陽能面板，已經獲得紐約州7.5億美元資助，但到目前為止一直問題不斷。《財富》雜志聯系了勃蘭登堡州政府，想詢問是否為特斯拉提供了補貼或稅收減免，但還沒有州政府官員對此發表評論。

在德國設廠后，馬斯克甚至可以加入排外而又有影響力的德國汽車工業協會（VDA），后者由德國國內汽車廠商和供應商組成，而且多年來一直在按照自己的意愿左右著德國政府的政策。最近，該機構推動政府拿出了更多的納稅人資金，目的是在2025年之前擴建充電基礎設施，以便為普及電動汽車清理障礙。

德國汽車工業協會的總裁伯恩哈德·馬特斯在聲明中表示：“接納特斯拉可以強化德國的汽車中心地位，因此德國汽車工業協會歡迎此項決定。”但他還說，“前提是該工廠能夠在幾年內竣工”。

不過，有贏家，就不可避免地會有輸家。

11月12日接受本次慶典組織方、英國傳媒合作伙伴《Auto Expresson》雜志采訪時，馬斯克解釋說沒有考慮英國的原因是英國正在脫歐。

他對該雜志表示：“脫歐讓在英國建立超級工廠變得風險過大。”下個月英國將舉行大選，外界將此視為第二次脫歐公投的“替身”。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Ever the showman with a gift for picking backdrops with maximum effect, Elon Musk saved up his latest big announcement for perhaps the most prestigious red-carpet event the German auto industry knows.

At the annual Golden Steering Wheel awards in Berlin on November 12, surrounded by top executives from around the country, the Tesla CEO divulged that his much anticipated European Gigafactory would be coming to the German capital, together with a research and development center.

Just as carmakers like Mercedes-Benz struggle to decarbonize their fleets ahead of Europe’s impending CO2 caps, they now face renewed pressure from a company with a substantial headstart in electrification, an innovation that’s transforming the automotive sector. Investors have rewarded this, giving Tesla a bigger market cap than BMW, for example. But zoom out, and Tesla holds just a 0.3 percent overall market share of all autos sold in Germany.

For Tesla to be successful in Europe longterm, the carmaker must increase its marketshare in Germany, analysts say.

“Musk wants to signal that he can take on the (domestic competition) in the largest market in Europe," Stefan Reindl, Director of the IfA institute for automotive industry in Geislingen, told Fortune. “While it’s true that he will not be able to defy the domestic industry’s laws of physics, such as the high-wage and energy costs, it is nonetheless a very bold and symbolic decision.”

Model Y, then the Model 3

Sharing the news with the rest of the world a short time later, Musk tweeted the company “will build batteries, powertrains and vehicles, starting with the Model Y (midsize crossover).” The Model 3, a nearly identical sedan, is scheduled to follow.

Tesla shares were up 0.8% an hour into the trading day on November 13. Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW, meanwhile, were all lower going into the final hour of the trading day in Germany.

The Gigafactory will be situated close to the new BER airport under construction in nearby Brandenburg and will be fed with renewable energy from a combination of wind, solar and other sources to ensure it operates without leaving behind a carbon footprint. The 300-hectare property in Grünheide that the regional government plans to sell to Tesla has been barren ever since BMW decided nearly 20 years ago not to invest in a site there. Sources say up to 3,500 jobs could be created directly at the factory in a first stage of expansion.

“Poor but sexy”

“Poor but sexy”—in the words of popular former mayor Klaus Wowereit, Berlin is known for setting trends in the country. It has a lively mobility startup scene, is tech-savvy and attracts young, creative minds due to its Bohemian flair, so it is a good fit for Tesla’s image.

For Germany’s capital, it would be a coup as Berlin looks to attract major employers and the industries of the future.

“With Berlin/Brandenburg as the site he differentiates himself from the established competitors in Germany,” noted IfA’s Reindl. “The Tesla Gigafactory decision could serve to eliminate doubts about the future of electric vehicles and boost confidence in the technology, both among the customers of German carmakers as well their own employees. The resulting pull effect could even have a positive effect on the German auto industry.”

The timing is auspicious as industry statistics published earlier this month showed Germany eclipsed Norway during the third quarter as Europe’s largest BEV (battery electric vehicle) market for the first time.

But Tesla bears warned Musk’s plans pose risks for the region as well. His Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, which focuses on solar panels, received $750 million in aid from New York State, but so far has been beset by problems. Fortune contacted the Brandenburg state government to ask about whether subsidies or tax breaks were involved. Officials were not immediately available for comment.

With a plant in Germany, Musk would even be able to join Germany’s clubby VDA, the influential industry association for domestic carmakers and suppliers that for years has shaped government policy to its liking. Most recently it helped to free up additional taxpayer funds to pay for an expansion of charging infrastructure through 2025 to reduce barriers to EV adoption.

“Situating Tesla here strengthens Germany as an automotive center, so the VDA welcomes the decision,” said its president, Bernhard Mattes, in a statement, before adding “should the plans be implemented in a few years time.”

But where there are winners, there are invariably losers.

Speaking to the ceremony organizer’s British partner publication Auto Expresson on November 12, Musk explained that the UK’s planned exit from the European Union disqualified it from his search.

“Brexit made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” he told the publication as Britons prepare to go to the polls next month in what is seen as a proxy second referendum.