惠普的打印機(jī)和油墨業(yè)務(wù)曾經(jīng)是公司的搖錢樹，但如今可能已經(jīng)是明日黃花。

惠普今年宣布了重大重組計(jì)劃。根據(jù)這一計(jì)劃，公司將裁員7000至9000名，占其5.5萬名員工總數(shù)的13%至16%。據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，此舉在2022年年底之前每年將為公司節(jié)約10億美元的費(fèi)用。為了調(diào)動(dòng)投資者的積極性，惠普提到了增加10%的派息，以及加大股票回購力度。

此消息一出，惠普股價(jià)在10月4日收盤時(shí)下跌了9.6%。摩根士丹利、瑞士信貸和美國(guó)銀行均將其目標(biāo)股價(jià)下調(diào)了1美元或更多。Loop Capital將其股票評(píng)級(jí)從“買入”降為“持有”，此前，Sanford C. Bernstein和UBS在9月便已經(jīng)下調(diào)了其評(píng)級(jí)。

從表面上看，問題出在打印業(yè)務(wù)上。但如果深究起來，問題的結(jié)癥在于投資者和分析師對(duì)惠普跟上時(shí)代巨變步伐的能力表示懷疑。

惠普念念不忘的液體黃金

惠普的命脈——惠普2014年拆分后所形成的打印和計(jì)算機(jī)部門——來自于打印機(jī)油墨的銷售。

2019年前9個(gè)月，計(jì)算機(jī)（惠普的個(gè)人系統(tǒng)部門）業(yè)務(wù)營(yíng)收達(dá)到了283億美元，而營(yíng)收151億美元的打印業(yè)務(wù)營(yíng)似乎有些不夠看。不過，如果說到運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率，局面出現(xiàn)了反轉(zhuǎn)。

截至2019年7月31日的季度，個(gè)人系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率為5.6%。打印業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)利潤(rùn)率達(dá)到了15.6%，是公司利潤(rùn)的主要貢獻(xiàn)者。截至2019年7月31日的前9個(gè)月，打印部門近65%的營(yíng)收來自于“耗材”，也就是油墨。

傳統(tǒng)的打印業(yè)務(wù)模式與剃須刀和刀頭的模式類似。銷售剃須刀的公司會(huì)以低價(jià)向消費(fèi)者銷售剃須刀，一旦鎖定客戶之后，刀頭（油墨）賣的并不便宜，繼而打造了一個(gè)用戶不斷購買的高利潤(rùn)產(chǎn)品。

這些利潤(rùn)為公司眾多的其他開支項(xiàng)提供了資金。對(duì)于惠普來說，不幸的是，油墨市場(chǎng)多年來一直處于變化當(dāng)中。瑞士聯(lián)合銀行的IT硬件、服務(wù)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)首席分析師約翰·羅伊說：“人們正在線下購買一些不知名品牌。”

Argus Research的研究總監(jiān)、科技行業(yè)高級(jí)分析師吉姆·科勒赫表示，具體來說最大的問題在于，“商業(yè)客戶開始購買替代油墨墨盒。”惠普的零售銷售業(yè)績(jī)十分強(qiáng)勁，但那些商業(yè)客戶正越來越多地在線購買替代墨盒來省錢。“因此，作為惠普利潤(rùn)最高且利潤(rùn)率超過了個(gè)人電腦的業(yè)務(wù)，油墨如今也遭到了圍攻。問題在于，惠普的這顆掌上明珠也不得不面對(duì)利潤(rùn)率長(zhǎng)期下滑的現(xiàn)實(shí)。”

惠普的計(jì)劃是將其打印產(chǎn)品線拆分為兩個(gè)門類。像手機(jī)一樣，一個(gè)門類將以高價(jià)出售，但不會(huì)設(shè)限，這樣，用戶可自行選擇油墨。另一個(gè)門類的價(jià)格更便宜，但只能使用惠普的墨盒。惠普沒有透露有關(guān)不設(shè)限打印機(jī)的硬件以及兩類產(chǎn)品用墨量的具體信息。

羅伊說：“他們覺得自己在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中擁有[油墨]成本優(yōu)勢(shì)。”理論上，惠普大概可以將其油墨價(jià)格降至任何不知名品牌難以承受的價(jià)位。

投資者擔(dān)心

惠普可能對(duì)其計(jì)劃充滿了信心，但突如其來的股價(jià)下跌、分析師的評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)以及目標(biāo)價(jià)格的減少反映了投資者對(duì)于自己的所見所聞并不滿意。原因可能有兩點(diǎn)。

瑞士聯(lián)合銀行的羅伊說：“很有可能，他們已經(jīng)制定了能夠奏效的策略。[然而]，從我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看來，這一點(diǎn)不太現(xiàn)實(shí)。”這種轉(zhuǎn)變要求惠普的客戶做出巨大的調(diào)整，而對(duì)打印機(jī)或油墨加價(jià)的做法可能會(huì)讓他們感到不悅。

一位惠普的發(fā)言人提到，重組聲明中引用了即將上任的惠普首席執(zhí)行官恩瑞克·洛瑞斯的原話：“在我們即將踏上新征程之際，我們將采取大膽、果斷的行動(dòng)。我們?cè)趧?chuàng)造股東價(jià)值方面看到了大量的機(jī)遇，而且我們將通過提升領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力，顛覆行業(yè)，以及積極地轉(zhuǎn)變我們的工作方式來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。我們將成為一家更加注重客戶的數(shù)字化企業(yè)，而且凸顯創(chuàng)新引領(lǐng)和目的性執(zhí)行。”

但這里存在更深層次的顧慮。IT投資顧問公司martinwolf M&A Advisors的總裁及創(chuàng)始人馬蒂·沃爾夫說：“這個(gè)模式存在漏洞”，而且很久之前就已存在。“如果我們看一下[惠普和2014年拆分形成的另一家公司慧與]，它們參與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的最復(fù)雜的垂直業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域達(dá)到了15到20個(gè)，而且每一個(gè)領(lǐng)域都得拔尖。它們應(yīng)該被拆分為20家公司。公司需要的并不是懂個(gè)人電腦和打印業(yè)務(wù)的高管[例如曾經(jīng)執(zhí)掌打印部門的洛瑞斯]，而是有重組經(jīng)驗(yàn)的高管。”（最近，像eBay等公司發(fā)現(xiàn)自己在剝離非關(guān)聯(lián)資產(chǎn)時(shí)倍感壓力。）

惠普的發(fā)言人在回應(yīng)中提到了公司的首席執(zhí)行官在2019年8月22日做出的后續(xù)聲明。這位發(fā)言人將洛瑞斯描述為“一名關(guān)鍵的構(gòu)建師，他執(zhí)行了商業(yè)史上最大、最復(fù)雜的企業(yè)拆分”，而且“在惠普成本架構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型過程中發(fā)揮了至關(guān)重要的作用，同時(shí)還簡(jiǎn)化了組織構(gòu)架，打造了投資創(chuàng)新的能力，以推動(dòng)盈利性的營(yíng)收和盈利增長(zhǎng)。”在同一個(gè)聲明中，惠普董事長(zhǎng)、李維斯首席執(zhí)行官齊普·伯格將洛瑞斯稱為“一位鼓舞人心、久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)的商業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者”，他是“董事會(huì)全票通過的首席執(zhí)行官繼任者”。

此外，有鑒于此前看似強(qiáng)勁的財(cái)報(bào)，這類聲明不應(yīng)引發(fā)股價(jià)的大跌。卡內(nèi)基梅隆大學(xué)泰珀商學(xué)院的金融學(xué)教授切斯特·斯帕特說：“市場(chǎng)通常將其看作公司試圖更好地控制這一局面。可能市場(chǎng)從中看到了一些負(fù)面信息。”

惠普預(yù)計(jì)于11月發(fā)布公司財(cái)報(bào)，我們很快就能夠知道是否還會(huì)有更多的負(fù)面消息流出。如果是這樣，投資者可能會(huì)認(rèn)定惠普的墨盒將成為明日黃花。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

HP’s printer and ink business used to gush money. Those days may be over.

The company announced a major restructuring at its 2019 securities analyst meeting on Thursday. HP will reduce its workforce of 55,000 by 7,000 to 9,000—a cut of 13% to 16%. The move is supposed to save $1 billion a year by the end of 2022. To entice investors, HP mentioned a 10% boost in stock dividends and increased share buybacks.

The news sent shares reeling by 9.6% at October 4’s market close. Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and Bank of America all lowered their share price targets by a dollar or more. Loop Capital downgraded it from “buy” to “hold,” which is on top of September downgrades by Sanford C. Bernstein and UBS.

The surface issue is the printing business. But going deeper, investors and analysts aren’t confident that HP can evolve to keep up with drastically changing times.

HP misses all that liquid gold

The lifeblood of HP—the printing and PC unit that resulted from the 2014 split of the original Hewlett-Packard—is the sale of printer ink.

In the first nine months of 2019, computers (HP’s personal systems division) brought in $28.3 billion for the company. The printing division, at $15.1 billion, seems like the weaker sibling. But look at operating margins, and the picture flips.

In the quarter ending July 31, 2019, personal systems had an operating margin of 5.6%. Printing, with a 15.6% margin, brings in the big profits. And almost 65% of the printing division revenue in those nine months ending July 31, 2019 came from “supplies.” That’s ink.

The traditional printing business model functions similarly to that of the razors and razorblades business. Companies sell razors to consumers at low prices, then once they are locked in, the blades—like ink—are expensive, creating a high profit-margin item users buy over and over.

These are the profits that subsidize so much elsewhere in the company. Unfortunately for HP, the ink market has been changing for years. “People are going offline and buying off-brand,” says John Roy, lead analyst in IT hardware, services, and networking for UBS.

“Specifically [it’s] the purchase of replacement ink cartridges by commercial accounts” that is the big problem, says Jim Kelleher, director of research and senior technology analyst for Argus Research. HP is strong in retail sales. But those commercial customers are increasingly buying substitute cartridges online to save money. “So, the highest-margin part of this business, which has higher margins than the PC business, is now under siege. The concern is that this crown-jewel business must contend with secular decline in margins.”

HP's plan is to break its printing product lines into two categories. Like cell phones, some will come at a premium price but be unlocked, so users can choose any ink they want. The other type are priced cheaper but only work with HP cartridges. There’s no word yet on the premium for the unlocked printer hardware or how much ink would run in either case.

“They feel like they have [an ink] cost advantage versus the competition,” Roy says. In theory, HP could presumably drop its ink price below whatever the off-brands could afford to charge.

Investors balk

HP may believe in its plans, but the sudden share drop and analyst downgrades and price-target reductions show investors don’t like what they hear. That may be for two reasons.

“It’s certainly possibly they could have a strategy that works,” Roy of UBS says. “[But] it doesn’t fit my experience.” Such a shift requires an enormous change on the part of HP’s customers, who may not like being told to pay more for printers or ink.

An HP spokesperson pointed to the restructuring announcement that quoted incoming HP CEO Enrique Lores as saying, “We are taking bold and decisive actions as we embark on our next chapter. We see significant opportunities to create shareholder value and we will accomplish this by advancing our leadership, disrupting industries and aggressively transforming the way we work. We will become an even more customer-focused and digitally enabled company, that will lead with innovation and execute with purpose.”

But there are deeper concerns. “Their model is flawed” and has been for a long time, says Marty Wolf, president and founder of IT investment advisory firm martinwolf M&A Advisors. “If you look at [both HP and HPE, the other spin-off from the 2014 breakup], they compete across 15 or 20 of the most complex verticals, and you have to be best of breed. They needed to be broken up in 20 companies. They don’t need an executive [like Lores, who was head of the printing division] with experience in PCs and printers. They need an executive with experience in restructuring.” (Recently other companies like eBay have found themselves under pressure to shed non-related assets.)

The HP spokesperson responded with a reference to the company’s CEO succession announcement of Aug. 22, 2019, which characterized Lores as “a key architect of one of the largest and most complex corporate separations in business history” and “instrumental in transforming HP’s cost structure while simplifying the organization and creating the capacity to invest in innovation to drive profitable top and bottom-line growth.” In the same announcement, HP board chairman Chip Bergh, who is CEO of Levi Strauss, called Lores “an inspiring and proven business leader” who was “the board’s unanimous choice as a successor.”

Also, with previous financial filings seeming strong, this sort of announcement shouldn’t result in tanking shares. “Usually the market views that as the company trying to take better control of a situation,” says Chester Spatt, a professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business. “Maybe the market thinks there’s adverse information in this.”

With an earnings announcement expected in November, we’ll soon find out if there’s more bad news to come. If that’s the case, investors might decide HP’s cartridge has run dry.