龍蝦行業有過幾年的好時光，特別是經銷商一直設法在中國發展人脈從而擴大業務規模的情況下。貿易爭端開始后，中國從2018年7月6日開始對包括甲殼類動物在內的許多美國產品征收25%的關稅。這個市場在一夜之間崩塌了，而且中國對美國的競爭對手加拿大敞開了大門，后者也在捕撈和運輸僅存在于北美東北部的龍蝦。

威奇塔州立大學國際商業巴頓杰出講座教授及管理學教授烏莎·海利說：“中國用加拿大龍蝦取代了美國龍蝦?！泵绹凝埼r出口量已經從2018年6月的1200萬磅（約544萬公斤）降至今年6月的220萬磅（約99萬公斤）。

和農業、制造業以及美國經濟中的其他主要行業相比，龍蝦行業或許很小，但對從業者來說可不是這樣。現在他們正在設法尋找維持行業運轉的途徑。

龍蝦批發商Maine Coast的銷售和營銷副總裁希拉·亞當斯說：“加征關稅后我們對中國的銷售比以前少了80%左右?！奔s占該公司總業務量的8%?！耙郧拔覀兠恐芏糩直接]向中國大陸銷售龍蝦。”現在和中國做生意的機會只出現在中國買家無法從加拿大獲得所需產品的時候。

由于龍蝦行業自身的獨特性，美國仍然在間接向中國銷售龍蝦。緬因州龍蝦經銷商協會的執行董事安妮·特斯里基斯說：由于供給不穩定，“過去30年這個行業建立起了既協作又相互競爭的機制。加拿大有40多個龍蝦捕撈區，但各個捕撈區的作業時間只有很短暫的重疊。緬因州和新罕布什爾州允許全年捕蝦，而美國的其他州一般都有禁漁期。

這讓美國的龍蝦供應更為充足，還可以在加拿大龍蝦供不應求時作為補充進入加拿大市場。在這些進入加拿大的龍蝦中，有很小一部分現在銷售到了中國，因為它們不受關稅影響。但多了一個中間環節就意味著每單生意賺到的錢變少了。對捕撈者來說價格挺好，因為他們可以把捕撈所得悉數售出。亞當斯說：“受擠壓的是我們這一塊?！?/p>

并非首次受到打擊

這并不是貿易性不利因素在近些年給龍蝦行業帶來的唯一打擊。2008年，美國食品與藥品管理局（FDA）建議消費者不要食用龍蝦肝，也就是龍蝦體內一塊軟軟的綠色物體，原因是可能積累造成麻痹性貝類中毒的毒素。龍蝦肉仍然是安全的，但美國食品與藥品管理局的公告說的不夠清楚。

日本厚生勞動省建議買家對龍蝦肝進行測試，這造成購買量大幅滑坡。亞當斯說：“這是美國有能力扭轉的問題。加拿大很快就改變了局勢，但這10年美國食品與藥品管理局一直毫無作為?！?/p>

特斯里基斯指出：“[在這個問題上]我們仍然處于停滯狀態?！?/p>

接下來，歐洲又出了問題。加拿大和歐盟簽訂了新的貿易協議，降低了龍蝦的關稅，而美國還沒有這樣做。這再次讓美國批發商處于價格劣勢，并且損失了更多生意。

和種植業不同，龍蝦行業的規模較小，幾乎不受政客們關注。為彌補利潤損失，批發商不得不把重點放在尋找新市場上，這項工作既耗時又花錢。海利教授說：“美國龍蝦行業花了6-12個月才找到其他買家。”但替代者未必能夠提供同樣的價格。

批發商Boston Lobster Company也損失了大量中國銷售額。該公司的銷售人員布倫特·林肯說：“我覺得在開始征收關稅后，我個人的業務減少了大概70%。現在我不得不將重點放在其他地區?！?/p>

Boston Lobster Company曾經想辦法繞過限制——他們把龍蝦經水路運往河內，再用卡車運進中國。這種做法持續了五個月，隨后被政府部門叫停。林肯用了很多時間來尋找進入新加坡和韓國等其他外國市場的切入點。

此外，美國批發商都在相互挖對方的國內客戶，造成龍蝦價格下跌。林肯說：“會買東西的人，每次下訂單時都會[找好幾家供應商]來詢價。他會讓批發商相互競爭，說：‘哦，老天，人家都賣7美元，你能幫個忙嗎？’”

就算貿易爭端最終結束，而且中國降低關稅，龍蝦行業也會受到長期損害。美國的大型機場和海外航線較多，因此對加拿大擁有空運優勢。但亞當時指出，加拿大“正在為改善這一點而大舉投資” ，而這有可能讓龍蝦生意永久性地向加拿大傾斜。“如果把一個競爭對手擠出了市場，[其他人]就會獲得增強實力的機會?！?/p>

林肯說：“我們一直在想辦法讓自己保持積極的心態?！比绻P稅下降而且加拿大出現糟糕的捕撈季——龍蝦行業時不時地會出現這樣的問題，他希望中國會有人給他發電子郵件或者打電話說：“你有什么產品可以賣給我們嗎？”（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

The lobster industry was enjoying some good years, especially with the work distributors had done developing contacts to grow their presence in China. And then came the trade war and the July 6, 2018 start of China’s 25% tariff on many U.S. goods, including the crustaceans. That market sank overnight and opened the door wide to competition from Canada, the other country in the business of catching and shipping the lobsters found only in the northeast region of North America.

“China replaced U.S. lobsters with Canadian,” says Usha Haley, professor and Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University. Exports from domestic waters dropped from 12 million pounds in June 2018 to 2.2 million pounds by the same time this year.

The lobster industry may be small compared to big agriculture, manufacturing, or other sectors of the economy, but not to those in it. And they’re trying to find ways to keep business afloat.

“About 80% of what we used to sell into China has stopped post tariff,” says Sheila Adams, vice president of sales and marketing at Maine Coast, a lobster wholesaler. That works out to about 8% of the company’s total business. “We used to do [direct] weekly sales into Mainland China,” she says. Now it’s only opportunistic business when Chinese buyers can’t get what they need from Canada.

There are still U.S. indirect sales to China because of the unusual nature of the lobster business. “The industry has for the last 30 years built up a system where we work together while we also compete against each other,” says Annie Tselikis, executive director of the Maine Lobster Dealers’ Association. The reason is irregular supply. Canada has more than 40 designated areas for lobstering but only brief overlapping times when the different spots may be worked. Maine and New Hampshire allow year-round lobstering while other states typically have periods of the year that are closed to harvesting.

The U.S. as a result often has more available supply and sells into Canada to supplement when their availability runs short. Some portion of that lobster now heads to China because it is no longer subject to the tariff. But the addition of another middleman means fewer dollars per party. Prices are fine for the people fishing because they can sell everything they bring in. “Where the squeeze is happening is at our level,” Adams says.

Not the first blow

This isn’t the industry’s only recent brush with trade-related adversity. That was in 2008, when the Food and Drug Administration issued a consumer advisory against eating tomalley—the soft green material in the lobster body—because of a potential buildup of toxins that cause paralytic shellfish poisoning. The meat remained safe to eat but the wording was confusing.

Japan’s Ministry of Health suggested buyers test the tomalley, which greatly curtailed purchases. “That’s something within the USA’s power to rectify,” Adams said. “The Canadians rectified it quickly and ten years later the FDA has not.”

“We’re still at a standstill [there],” Tselikis says.

Then came problems in Europe. Canada signed a new trade deal with the EU, something the U.S. had yet to do, and got new lower tariffs on lobsters. Again, U.S. wholesalers were at a pricing disadvantage and lost more business.

Unlike farming, the lobster industry is relatively small and gets little attention from politicians. To make up for lost profits, wholesalers have focused on finding new markets—a time consuming and expensive undertaking. “It took about 6 months to one year for the US lobster industry to find alternate buyers,” Professor Haley says. But replacements don't necessarily offer equal value.

Boston Lobster Company is another wholesaler that lost significant sales in China. “I think about 70% of my personal business has been gone since the tariff was passed,” says Brent Lincoln, a salesperson at the company. “You have to look to other areas.”

Boston Lobster tried doing end runs around the restrictions by shipping to Hanoi and then trucking the lobsters over the border to China. That lasted five months until authorities shut down that avenue. Lincoln spends much of his time looking for additional entry into other foreign markets, such as Singapore and South Korea.

Then there are domestic sales as wholesalers try to poach each other’s U.S.-based customers, but that drives down prices. “If you’re a good buyer, every time you place an order, you reach out [to multiple suppliers] and say what’s your price,” Lincoln says. The buyer pits one wholesaler against another “and says, ‘Oh jeez, the other guy is at $7, can you help me out?’”

Even when the trade war eventually concludes and China drops the tariffs, there will likely be long-term damage. The U.S. has enjoyed an air shipping advantage over Canada, with a greater number of major airports and flight routes overseas. But Canada is “investing a lot to try to improve that,” Adams says, potentially marking a permanent shift toward Canada. “When you take a competitor out of the market, then it gives [others] an opportunity to build strength.”

“We’re trying to stay positive,” Lincoln says. If the tariffs drop and Canada has a bad season—a periodic problem in the industry—he hopes to get an email or phone call from someone in China who will say, “Do you have any product for us?”