以失業(yè)率降至50年低點為標題的本月就業(yè)報告被稱為“金發(fā)女孩”報告，它并非昭示經濟過熱的那種熱，也不是預示蕭條來臨的那種疲軟。在大多數時候，這類新聞才是華爾街的最愛。

但對于每一個“金發(fā)女孩”寓言故事來說，其重點都在于饑餓的熊是否又要回歸。盡管金融市場大多對該就業(yè)報告持有樂觀態(tài)度，但受此鼓舞的股市卻集體沉默，而且一些經濟學家還通過深挖數據發(fā)現了一些預警信號。因此，這則表里風光無限的新聞卻也帶著些許令人憂慮的意味。

10月初，美國勞工部稱9月失業(yè)率降至3.5%，創(chuàng)1969年12月以來的新低，且低于經濟學家預計的3.7%。非農就業(yè)崗位增長了13.6萬個，較預期低9000個。一些經濟學家稱，由于就業(yè)池潛在員工的每月增幅達到了約14萬人，因此任何遠低于這個值的數字都可被看作是預警信號。無論你是一個工人、求職者還是投資者，我們都可以這樣來理解這一數據。

崗位增長和低失業(yè)率是好消息，不是嗎？

通常來說是的。新增崗位如今與其需求保持著一致水平。這對于勞工來說是好事，對于投資者來說亦是如此，因為它意味著按照當前這個最受關注的指標來看，經濟依然在增長。與此同時，它增長的還不是太快，否則美聯儲可能會暫緩進一步降息，不過華爾街則正押注降息將在未來幾個月內發(fā)生。

金融市場在很大程度上對這一新聞持樂觀態(tài)度。道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數自10月4日該報告出爐之后出現了上漲，而10年國債收益率則基本上沒有變化。

然而，當前的經濟增長已經進入第十個年頭，經濟總體增速正在放緩，而且可能很快會跌破上個季度的2%。從其他指標來看，經濟發(fā)展放緩已經是不可避免，例如最近《財富》雜志的分析調查則凸顯了采購經理的悲觀情緒，以及對制造業(yè)和服務行業(yè)招聘人數可能會放緩的擔憂。

當經濟增長周期跨度足夠長時，周期經常會以以下兩種方式收尾：第一種，各大公司遭遇蕭條，并裁員（成為一種自我實現的預言）；第二種，利率長期盤旋在超低位，引發(fā)對商業(yè)投資或市場交易的投機，從而導致過剩和更痛苦的著陸。簡而言之，上次經濟衰退的便是第二種方式的體現。

美國經濟是過熱還是放緩？

這是一個數萬億美元的問題，而且也是近幾周以來金融市場爭辯的焦點。美中貿易關系的不確定性也讓這個問題變得愈發(fā)復雜，而且事實證明，這一關系目前已經變得極其難以預測。貿易爭端的解決可能會導致經濟的進一步增長。貿易爭端的升級則有可能成為美國或其他經濟體進入衰退的導火索。

鑒于上述不確定性因素，經濟學家和投資者一直都分外關注9月的就業(yè)報告。他們將其數據點與其他經濟指標進行關聯，以便盡可能清楚地了解美國經濟以及金融市場的健康將何去何從。

我們到底能從就業(yè)和經濟數據中了解到什么？

你可能已經猜到，關于這一點目前還沒有明確的一致意見，而是出現了多個派別。一些人認為這是警告信號，而其他專家則更多地將其看成是經濟增長，只不過速度有所放緩。這個情形很像是以前的光學錯覺，取決于個人肉眼所見，有的人看到的是一只鴨子，而有的人看到的是一只兔子，放到金融領域就成了牛市和熊市之分。

一個關鍵問題在于，各大公司繼續(xù)招聘的勢頭還能持續(xù)多長時間？美國勞工部在10月9日表示，8月新增崗位數略超過700萬。說到應付美國新增勞動力的需求，這個數字可謂是綽綽有余，但較數月前下降了4.4%。如果各大公司開始裁員或延遲招聘，那么崗位/求職者比率就會下降。這個情形可能很快就會出現。美國的大多數首席財務官預計未來12個月將出現就業(yè)蕭條。

就業(yè)網站Indeed.com的經濟師尼克·邦克在就業(yè)報告出爐后寫道：“勞工需求前景正在逐漸暗淡”。他還指出，該現象也為“‘勞動力市場的下滑源于雇主需求’這個觀點提供了證據”。

為什么薪資沒有增長？

這是另一個有關薪資增速的問題。在前幾輪周期中，時薪隨著勞動力市場的趨緊而出現了上升趨勢。但這一次并沒有發(fā)生。

9月的就業(yè)報告顯示，美國平均時薪下降了1美分，至28.09美元，這是近兩年以來首次月度同比下降。從年度同比來看，薪資僅增長了2.9%，是14個月以來的最低增幅。不計通脹，過去一年的薪資增速僅有1.2%。

然而，薪資增長的停滯大多出現在高薪職位。受整體基數的影響，很多餐館和零售員工因為某些地區(qū)提升最低工資標準而出現的薪資增長也就沒有那么明顯了。但反過來，這對于很多企業(yè)來說都意味著成本的增長。

摩根士丹利的首席美國經濟師艾倫·曾特納在接受彭博電臺采訪時表示：“大量的新崗位都來自于餐館、休閑場所和酒店。餐館一直在抱怨招不到足夠的員工，因為當大環(huán)境變好時，服務員都會跑到薪水更高的地方。”

所有這一切對于制造業(yè)和服務崗位意味著什么？

有人提出要謹慎看待就業(yè)報告，因為作為經濟預測風向標的它更多的是一個事后指標，而企業(yè)首席財務官和招聘經理的看法則更能代表當前的趨勢。不過，這些人的看法則更加悲觀。

9月，供應管理協會的制造商采購經理指數為47.8%，創(chuàng)2009年夏天以來的新低，較8月下降了49.1%。該指數低于50%則意味著制造業(yè)正在萎縮。該協會類似的服務業(yè)公司指數也出現了下滑，在9月降至低于預期的52.6，而8月為56.4。

此外，IHS Markit的一項獨立調查顯示，美國新設企業(yè)增速亦處于10年來的新低。 IHS Markit的首席商業(yè)經濟師克里斯·威廉姆森在一篇新聞稿中指出：“過去兩個月中商業(yè)活動的背靠背擴張?zhí)幱?009年以來的最低水平，也釋放出了第三季度GDP增速或將放緩的信號。”

總的來說，就業(yè)報告所依據以及所包含的經濟數據為人們勾勒出了一幅不確定的圖片：隨著圖片畫面變得越來越清晰，這個正在衰老的經濟越來越難以孕育大量的新崗位。

可以確定的是，當前的經濟周期終將結束。至于何時結束，則取決于未來幾周會出現什么樣的新數據、美聯儲如何操作利率，以及美中如何處理不斷發(fā)酵的貿易爭端。對于所有人來說，我們有必要密切關注各類事件，也有必要為自己留一條能夠輕易脫身的后路，以防這個故事中的熊最終真的出現在自己的眼前。（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

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This month’s jobs report, headlined by the lowest unemployment rate in a half century, was hailed as a “Goldilocks” report: not so hot the economy will overheat, not so sluggish it presages a recession. Most of the time, that’s the kind of news Wall Street loves to hear.

But central to every Goldilocks fable are the hungry bears returning home. And while the financial markets greeted the jobs report as mostly bullish, the stock rally it inspired was muted, and some economists are spying warning signs deeper in the data. So as bullish as the news was, it was also a bit bearish as well.

At the beginning of October, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, the lowest since December 1969 and below the 3.7% estimate from economists. Non-farm payrolls grew by 136,000, 9,000 fewer than expected. Some economists say that, because the employment pool grows by 140,000 potential workers each month, any number far short of that figure can be seen as a warning sign. Here’s how to make sense of the data—whether you’re a worker, a job seeker, or an investor.

Job growth and low unemployment are good news, right?

Usually, yes. New jobs are for now keeping pace with the demand for them. That’s good for the labor force, but it’s also encouraging for investors because it means the economy is still clicking along, according to one of the most closely watched metrics. At the same time, it’s not growing so fast the Fed may back off from further interest rate cuts, which Wall Street is betting on in coming months.

For the most part, the financial markets greeted the news with a shrug. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up since the report came out on October 4, while the 10-year bond yield is largely unchanged.

But we’re a decade into the current economic expansion, and the rate of overall economic growth is slowing and could soon drop below last quarter’s 2% growth. Other indicators suggest a slowdown is imminent, such as a recent Fortune Analytics survey that suggest pessimism on the part of purchasing managers, and worries that manufacturing and service hiring may slow.

When economic growth cycles age long enough, they usually end in one of two ways. Either companies see a recession coming and trim jobs (becoming a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy), or interest rates stay too low for too long, inspiring speculation in business investment or market trading that leads to excess and a much harder landing. Put simply, the latter outcome is what led to the the last recession.

So is the U.S. economy overheating or slowing down?

That’s the trillion-dollar question, and the center of a debate the financial markets have been having in recent weeks. It’s complicated by the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations, which have proven devilishly hard to predict. Resolving that trade dispute could lead to further economic growth. An escalated trade war could be a tipping point that sends the U.S. or other economies into recession.

Given such uncertainty, economists and investors have been giving extra-close scrutiny to the September jobs report, connecting its data points with other economic indicators to draw as clear a picture as they can for where the economy, and therefore the health of the financial markets, may be headed.

What exactly is the job and economic data telling us?

As you might guess, there’s no clear consensus on this, but rather a divide in views. Some see warning signs while others expect more economic growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace. It’s a lot like that old optical illusion that could be, depending on how your eyes see it, a duck or a rabbit. Or in this case, a bull or a bear.

A key question is, how long will companies keep hiring? The Labor Department said on October 9 that there were a little more than 7 million jobs open in August. That’s still more than enough to meet the demand of new people entering the U.S. workforce, but it’s 4.4% lower than it was a few months ago. If companies start cutting jobs or delaying hiring, the ratio of jobs to jobseekers could decline. And that may well happen soon. A majority of U.S. CFOs are expecting a recession in the next 12 months.

“The outlook for labor demand continues to darken,” Nick Bunker, an economist at employment site Indeed.com, wrote after the jobs report, noting that it gives “credence to the argument that the labor market slowdown is driven by employer demand.”

Why aren’t wages growing?

Another question centers on the rate of wage growth. In previous cycles, hourly wages have tended to increase as the labor market grows tighter. That’s not happening this time.

The September jobs report showed average hourly earnings fell one cent an hour to $28.09 an hour, the first month-to-month decline in nearly two years. On a year-over-year basis, wages rose a mere 2.9%, the slowest pace in 14 months. Factoring out inflation, that’s only a 1.2% increase in wages in the past year.

Much of that wage stagnation is happening in higher-paying jobs, however. The overall numbers obscure the rising wages that many restaurant and retail workers are seeing as some places raise the minimum wage. But conversely, that’s raising costs for many businesses.

“Restaurants, leisure, hospitality—that’s where a lot of the jobs have been created,” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, said on Bloomberg Radio. “Restaurants have been complaining about having enough workers because when conditions get better the workers go somewhere else to get paid more.”

What does all this mean for manufacturing and services jobs?

One caveat about the employment report is that, as central as it is to economic forecasts, it’s more of a rear-view indicator. Corporate CFOs and hiring managers have a more forward-facing view. And their views are looking more bearish.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturers came in at 47.8% in September, its lowest figure since the summer of 2009, and down from 49.1% in August. A PMI below 50% signals a contracting manufacturing sector. A similar ISM index for services companies also slipped to a lower-than-expected 52.6 in September from 56.4 in August.

Add to that a separate survey from IHS Market, which showed new business growth in the U.S. at its lowest level in a decade. “The past two months have seen one of the weakest back-to-back expansions of business activity since 2009, sending a signal of slower GDP growth in the third quarter,” Chris Williamson, IHS Markit’s chief business economist, said in a news release.

All together, the economic data leading up to and inside the latest jobs report paints an uncertain picture that, as it comes into clearer focus, shows an aging economy that's having a harder and harder time churning out new jobs.

That the current economic cycle will end is certain. The timing depends on what new data shows in coming weeks, as well as how the Fed acts on interest rates and how U.S. and China deal with the brewing trade way. For everyone else, it pays to keep a close watch on events—and to keep a window open for an easy escape once the bears in this fable finally show up.