挪威的Norsk Hydro是全球的主要鋁生產商，對其北美分公司而言，夏季以來的生意一直不那么紅火。

Norsk Hydro北美業務的年銷售額為30億美元，在北美各地設有20多家工廠，生產拖車、卡車、轎車和門窗的“骨骼”。該業務總裁查爾斯·斯特拉菲斯說：“就像許多行業一樣，這8至10年我們一直在增長。”去年，經營情況達到了2006年以來的最高點。而今年截至7月的業績放慢了3%，但依然“相當好”。

現在情況如何呢？斯特拉菲斯表示：“過去兩個月我們看到了相當顯著的減速。”

卡車和拖車訂單分別下降了50%和70%。代表較小機械銷售和生產廠家的一般經銷業務下滑了4%-7%。汽車業務下降了4%。該項業務的唯一問題是2020年的業績是會從前期高點回落5%-10%，還是會出現20%-40%的衰退性下跌。斯特拉菲斯說：“我還不知道答案。”

許多制造商都面臨著類似局面。一些公司將渡過難關，原因是一段時間以來他們一直在準備進行科技創新或制定營銷策略，或者一直在利用行業的上升勢頭。其他的則可能發現來年會很困難。

窺測未來

已經出現了令人不安的跡象。9月的就業報告顯示美國制造業就業機會減少了2000個，而去年9月的數字是增加1.8萬個。美國供應管理學會編制的采購經理人指數（PMI）是制造業的晴雨表。8月的PMI降至50以下，9月進一步滑落到47.8，創2009年以來新低。該指數低于50即表明行業處于收縮狀態。價格水平連續第四個月下降。受這些經濟數據影響，道瓊斯指數下跌近500點。

許多工廠都出現了明顯的放緩跡象。向制造企業銷售金屬制造設備的CNC Machines的首席執行官科特·達赫迪此前曾對《財富》雜志表示，他發現夏季業務增長緩慢，而秋季銷售增幅只有他通常預期的一半。這樣的趨勢一直在延續。達赫迪說：“我們必須得比以往更有創造性，以便拉到更多生意。”

有些領域仍在增長

許多公司都存在不確定性，全球經濟也面臨挑戰。

設在圣路易斯的定制材料處理設備廠商BHS的首席營銷官兼執行副總裁吉姆·胡貝爾指出：“更多大型產品的工業制造放慢了速度，[比如工程和工業設備]。”但北美的應用型制造“目前仍處于高水平”。

和中國的貿易關系依然令人迷惑。唐納德·特朗普宣稱在最近的談判中獲勝。《中國日報》則表示已經取得了進展：“基于以往的經驗，華盛頓總有可能取消協議，前提是它認為這樣做更符合自己的利益。”公司無法確定應該采取怎樣的策略。

美國全國制造商協會首席經濟學家查德·穆特雷博士指出：“我們的觀點一直是制造商需要更多的確定性。美加墨協定[取代之前的北美自由貿易協定]需要獲得通過。制造商希望和中國的貿易爭端畫上句號。我們一直在說的其他問題還包括進出口銀行以及我們需要它充分發揮作用。”

整體趨勢一直有利于一些公司的財務數據。由于汽車電子和物聯網快速增長，有85年歷史的芝加哥電子制造企業Morey的總裁兼首席運營官喬治·惠蒂爾表示，該公司預計明年將增長25%。但中國的情況讓“[成本]略有上升”，而且必須將其轉嫁給消費者。

但對許多公司來說，市場和行業趨勢本身的延續性已經不足，而且已經到了需要認真重新考量的時候了。

發明之母

金屬制造商Quikcut的所有者及首席執行官馬克·韋伯說：“如果只生產一種產品，而且這是你的全部業務，那你在滑坡時就會受到較大的影響。”他正在開拓新市場并分散風險。“有些工作現在就要取得成果了。我覺得這是一個在下行市場中實現增長的機會。如果不出現這樣的局面，資源就得不到解放。”

提升創造性，無論是為了改善質量和效率，還是為了鎖定新的機遇，都已經成為創造新的機會，從而駕馭較大經濟風浪的關鍵，至少理論上如此。但另辟蹊徑可能很難，而且不能保證企業可以經受住此類風暴的洗禮。

達赫迪說：“我接觸到的一些年紀較大的人不喜歡變化。我覺的這是人的本性，他們希望堅守自己了解的東西。除非他們每年都有意識地推動自己去學習最新科技，否則他們的思維就會拘泥于20年前管用的那些東西上。”

紐約州羅徹斯特市門窗五金件生產商Caldwell Manufacturing也發現8月的業務放緩。該公司的首席運營官蓋瑞·米勒說：“我們的全年業績會很好，但上個季度的情況不會像此前6至7個季度那么火爆。”

Caldwell已經開始投資于3D打印機，它將后者用于產品原型、短期生產以及工廠自動化。米勒說：“它讓我們得以重新安排人手，[讓他們從事技術要求更高的工作]。”這項投資應該有助于2020年的經營。“我們略微提高了明年的預期，同時我們正在推出許多新產品，我們覺得它們會產生非常好的效果。”

但對Caldwell來說，這依然只是意味著個位數增長。雖然好過大幅下跌，但這表明制造商，或者其他任何行業中的公司無法單憑創新來繞開強大的經濟因素。或許不會有很大的新市場來改變局勢，許多新市場甚至會很小。

制造業的整體問題是公司能否可以等待貿易爭端趨于平靜以及美國的消費支出能否繼續占GDP的7%。如果公眾變得緊張并停止消費，工廠里的生產線預計就會長期停擺。（財富中文網）

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譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

For a North American division of Norsk Hydro, a major global aluminum producer, business hasn’t been cheery since the summer.

“Like a lot of industries we’ve been on an 8- to 10-year growth period,” says Charles Straface, president of the $3 billion annual sales business unit that builds the “bones” of such products as trailers, trucks, cars, windows, and doors in more than 20 factories across North America. Last year, business was at a peak it hadn’t seen since 2006. This year things began to slow by 3% through July, which was still “pretty good.”

Now? “In the last two months we’re seeing pretty massive slowing,” Straface says.

Truck and trailer order rates are down between 50% and 70%. General distribution, a proxy for smaller machine shops and fabricators, is off by 4% to 7%. Automotive is down by 4%. The only question the business has is whether 2020 brings a 5% to 10% correction from a previous high or a 20% to 40% recession-type contraction. “I don’t know the answer to that,” Straface says.

Many manufacturers face similar questions. Some will pull through because they’ve been preparing for some time with innovation of technology and marketing strategies or have ridden industry rising industry trends. Others, though, might find the coming year difficult.

Crystal ball

There have been disquieting signs. The September jobs report showed a loss of 2,000 manufacturing jobs versus a gain of 18,000 at the same time last year. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a manufacturing strength indicator from the Institute for Supply Management, dropped below 50 in August—a sign of industry contraction—and last month further fell to 47.8, the lowest number since 2009. Prices contracted for the fourth straight month. The result drove a nearly 500-point drop in the Dow.

A slowdown has been obvious on many factory floors. Curt Doherty, CEO of CNC Machines, a reseller of metal manufacturing equipment to manufacturers, previously told Fortune he saw a slow summer and only half of the fall sales uptick he normally expected. Things have continued along the same trend. “We’re having to get creative to land more deals than we used to,” he says.

Some things keep growing

There’s uncertainty for many companies and challenges in a global economy.

“More industrial manufacturing of certain large volume types of products [like construction and agricultural equipment] are slowing down,” says Jim Huber, COO and executive vice president of BHS, a St. Louis-based manufacturer of custom material handling equipment. But manufacturing for use in North America “for the moment continues to remain at a high level.”

Trade in China remains confusing. Donald Trump claimed victory in recent negotiations. However, China Daily, a news outlet of the country’s government, notes a breakthrough appears to have happened, “based on its past practice, there is always the possibility that Washington may decide to cancel the deal if it thinks that doing so will better serve its interests.” Companies can’t be sure of what their strategies should be.

“What we’ve been saying at the National Association of Manufacturers is manufacturers need more certainty,” says the organization’s chief economist, Dr. Chad Moutray. “We need the USMCA [NAFTA replacement] passed. Manufacturers are looking for a conclusion to the trade war with China. The other issue we’ve all been talking about is the export import bank and the need to get that fully functioning.”

General trends have buoyed the finances of some companies. Rapid growth of electronics in automobiles and of the Internet of Things means 85-year-old Chicago-based electronics manufacturer Morey expects 25% growth next year, according to president and COO George Whittier. But the situation in China has “added a bit [in cost]” that must be passed on to customers.

For many, though, market and industry trends alone haven’t been sufficiently sustaining and some serious rethinking is due.

Mother of invention

“If you’'re only making one product and that’s all you do, you’re going to be affected more in a downturn,” says Mark Webb, CEO and owner of metal fabrication manufacturer Quikcut. He’s pushed to enter new markets and diversify his risk. “Some of those things are coming to fruition now. I look at it as an opportunity to grow in a declining market. It frees up resources to do things you otherwise wouldn’t do.”

The push for creativity, whether in making things better and more efficiently or locating new opportunities, has become critical to open new opportunities that—in theory at least—can surf over some big economic waves. But doing something different can be hard—and no guarantee that a company will weather the storm.

“Some of the older generations I’ve talked to, they don’t like change,” Doherty says. “I think it’s human nature and they want to stick to what they know. Unless they’re consciously making that push every year to learn the newest technology, they’re the ones that seem stuck on mentally what was working 20 years ago.”

Caldwell Manufacturing, which makes door and window hardware, also saw the August slowdown. “We will have a good year, but the last quarter is not going to be as on fire as what we felt for the last six or seven quarters,” says Gary Miller, COO of the Rochester, New York-based company.

Caldwell has invested in 3D printers for prototypes and short-run production as well as plant automation. “It allows us to redeploy our headcount [to higher skilled tasks],” Miller says. The investment should help with prospects for 2020. “We’re forecasting up slightly for the coming year, but we’re launching a lot of new products that we think will have a very good impact.”

But for Caldwell that still only means low single-digit growth. While that’s better than a significant drop, it doesn’t mean innovation alone will let manufacturers—or companies in any other industry—make an end run around big economic forces. There may not be a big new market, or even many little ones, to make up the difference.

The question for manufacturing in general is whether companies can wait out the calming of trade waters and if American consumer spending will continue to be 70% of GDP. If the public gets nervous and stops buying, expect a lot of idle time on the factory line.