如果說聯(lián)邦快遞對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)來說，就像一只用來檢測(cè)礦井里的空氣能否呼吸的金絲雀，那么這只金絲雀最近可是有點(diǎn)瘦了。

最近發(fā)布的聯(lián)邦快遞第一財(cái)務(wù)季度（截止到8月31日）報(bào)表顯示，該公司的營(yíng)業(yè)收入下滑至171億美元。本周二收盤后，聯(lián)邦快遞的股價(jià)下跌了10%左右，每股凈利潤(rùn)也由去年同期的3.10美元下滑至2.84美元。輝盛公司（FactSet）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，此前分析師對(duì)聯(lián)邦快遞每股利潤(rùn)的預(yù)期是3.15美元。

對(duì)此，聯(lián)邦快遞CEO施偉德表示：“我們的業(yè)績(jī)繼續(xù)受到全球宏觀環(huán)境疲軟的負(fù)面影響，其主要因素是貿(mào)易糾紛和政策的不確定性。”更糟糕的是，聯(lián)邦快遞已經(jīng)將利潤(rùn)預(yù)期從華爾街普遍認(rèn)可的14.62美元每股，下調(diào)至11到13美元每股。

隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的滑坡，很多企業(yè)都在準(zhǔn)備迎接增長(zhǎng)乏力的局面。不過聯(lián)邦快遞的業(yè)績(jī)疲軟，是一個(gè)尤為值得擔(dān)憂的現(xiàn)象。原因是一直以來，聯(lián)邦快遞的業(yè)績(jī)都被外界看作是全球商業(yè)活動(dòng)的“天氣預(yù)報(bào)”。

亞利桑那州立大學(xué)物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理學(xué)教授戴爾·羅杰斯指出：“有人說經(jīng)濟(jì)還在增長(zhǎng)，他們的依據(jù)是GDP的數(shù)值。但是GDP作為一個(gè)指標(biāo)只能起到‘后視鏡’的作用。它只會(huì)告訴你已經(jīng)發(fā)生的事情。而聯(lián)邦快遞則是一個(gè)‘風(fēng)向標(biāo)’，它能告訴你即將發(fā)生的事情。”

與UPS和美國(guó)郵政不同的是，聯(lián)邦快遞并不高度依賴直接面向個(gè)人消費(fèi)者的快遞業(yè)務(wù)，個(gè)人業(yè)務(wù)大約只占了聯(lián)邦快遞業(yè)務(wù)量的20%左右。其余的80%，則主要依賴商業(yè)“食物鏈”的上游環(huán)節(jié)，比如從供應(yīng)商到制造商之間的物流。換句話說，早在消費(fèi)者下單購(gòu)買這些成品商品之前，聯(lián)邦快遞就已經(jīng)把錢賺了。羅杰斯認(rèn)為，聯(lián)邦快遞的不景氣，預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在未來9到12個(gè)月里出現(xiàn)問題。

上個(gè)月，聯(lián)邦快遞還終止了與亞馬遜的貨運(yùn)合同，這也給它的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)斐闪艘恍┯绊懀绊懴鄬?duì)不大。聯(lián)邦快遞還向投資者公布了來自樂天情報(bào)（Rakuten Intelligence）的一張圖表，上面顯示，過去幾年，它的所謂“最后一英里”業(yè)務(wù)（也就是直接配送至消費(fèi)者手中的包裹）始終穩(wěn)定地保持在5%以下，遠(yuǎn)低于UPS和美國(guó)郵政的比例，這表明亞馬遜雖然在雄心勃勃地發(fā)展自己的快遞業(yè)務(wù)，但這并不會(huì)給聯(lián)邦快遞造成太大損失。

在一次討論營(yíng)收問題的電話會(huì)議上，聯(lián)邦快遞的高管明確表示，對(duì)該公司財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)影響最大的因素的是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢(shì)，特別是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和一些國(guó)家的衰退。聯(lián)邦快遞財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)艾倫·格拉夫表示，聯(lián)邦快遞下調(diào)預(yù)期的“絕大部分原因，與我們沒有預(yù)料到的宏觀環(huán)境因素有關(guān)。”他還表示，聯(lián)邦快遞正在采取措施減少運(yùn)力，包括退役數(shù)十架貨機(jī)等。

當(dāng)被問到，為什么中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)打了這么久，聯(lián)邦快遞才開始削減運(yùn)力時(shí)，施偉德表示：“去年秋天，我們是第一個(gè)喊出這個(gè)口號(hào)的人。我記得很清楚。我的意思是，我們是最早預(yù)言了這種情況的人。”今年早些時(shí)候，中美之間一度有望達(dá)成新的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，這一期望導(dǎo)致很多人出現(xiàn)了“極大的興奮”，然而最終中美談判還是破裂了，美國(guó)再次祭起了關(guān)稅大棒。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)打到這里，作為“吃瓜群眾”的其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體也感到了一絲寒意，其中就包括聯(lián)邦快遞的業(yè)務(wù)比較活躍的一些歐洲國(guó)家。

雖然聯(lián)邦快遞已經(jīng)通過削減成本做出了反應(yīng)，不過施偉德指出，其他一些公司還在否認(rèn)事實(shí)。他表示：“我每天都看商業(yè)新聞，我得告訴你們，我認(rèn)為相對(duì)于現(xiàn)在的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)來說，媒體上的很多言論關(guān)于美國(guó)消費(fèi)者和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的言論，都屬于在自己給自己壯膽。”

羅杰斯表示，聯(lián)邦快遞業(yè)績(jī)疲軟的情況，也與他正在追蹤的物流經(jīng)理人指數(shù)中的其他一些重要指標(biāo)吻合，比如運(yùn)輸價(jià)格和倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)能力等一些指標(biāo)，有的增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)放緩，有的較上年有所下降。全球航運(yùn)巨頭馬士基集團(tuán)也預(yù)警稱，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致了全球海運(yùn)的增長(zhǎng)放緩。

目前，全球最關(guān)注的就是中美之間的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)了。但是2019年，還有一些國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易糾紛也起了火上澆油的作用。比如日本和韓國(guó)就貿(mào)易問題斗得不可開交，英國(guó)脫歐大戲則很有可能威脅英國(guó)乃至整個(gè)歐盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

羅杰斯表示：“即使沒有貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，我們也會(huì)看到增長(zhǎng)形勢(shì)的變化，不過貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)嚴(yán)重?cái)U(kuò)大了它的規(guī)模。這不光是美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普一個(gè)人的問題，而是全球的一些深層矛盾開始顯現(xiàn)了出來。特朗普只是這樣一個(gè)時(shí)代的報(bào)信者，是這些矛盾的反映，但并不是全部原因。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

If shipping giant FedEx is often regarded as a canary in the global economy coal mine, this canary is looking a little peaked.

FedEx shares tumbled roughly 10% after Tuesday's market close after the company said revenues in its first fiscal quarter ended Aug. 31 slipped to $17.1 billion, while its net profit fell to $2.84 a share from $3.10 a share a year earlier. Analysts had forecast earnings of $3.15 a share, according to FactSet.

"Our performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty," said CEO Fred Smith. Even worse, FedEx slashed its full-year profit forecast to between $11 a share and $13 a share, down from Wall Street's consensus forecast of $14.62 a share.

With global economies sagging, lots of companies are bracing for weaker growth. But FedEx's disappointing earnings report is especially worrisome for one key reason: It's widely seen as an early warning system for global commerce.

"I hear people saying the economy is growing because they are looking at the gross domestic product," says Dale Rogers, a professor of logistics and supply chain management at Arizona State University. "But GDP is a rear-view mirror of an indicator. It tells you what's already happened. FedEx is a bellwether because it tells you what's going to happen."

Unlike UPS or the U.S. Postal Service, FedEx isn't highly dependent on shipments to consumers, which make up about 20% of FedEx's business. The rest relies further up the business food chain: Shipments from suppliers to manufacturers, for example. In other words, long before consumers even have a chance to buy those manufactured goods. What happens to FedEx augurs what could happen to the economy about 9-to-12 months down the road, Rogers says.

FedEx was also hurt by its move last month to end its delivery contract with Amazon, although the damage from that move was relatively modest. FedEx shared with investors a chart from Rakuten Intelligence that showed its share of the last-mile shipments (that is, delivery to consumers) has steadily held below 5% for the past few years, far below the shares of UPS and the USPS, indicating it's insulated from Amazon's ambitious plans to deliver its own packages.

Instead, in a conference call discussing earnings, FedEx executives made it clear the biggest impact weighing on its financial performance was a global economy stymied by a trade war and a recession in some countries. CFO Alan Graf said the "vast majority" of the reduction in FedEx's guidance was "associated with the macroeconomic conditions that we did not expect." Smith added that the company is also taking steps to reduce capacity, including retiring several dozen aircraft.

Asked why FedEx didn't start cutting capacity until long after the U.S.-China trade war began, Smith said, "Last fall, we were the first people to call this out. And I remember very vividly. I mean, we are the leading prognosticator of this." Early this year, however, hope for an imminent trade deal led to a "tremendous amount of euphoria" before talks collapsed into new rounds of tariffs later on. That sent a chill to other economies, such as those in Europe, where FedEx is active.

And while FedEx is now reacting by cutting costs, Smith indicated that others remain in a sort of denial. "I watch the business press every day and I have to tell you, I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard about the U.S. consumer and the U.S. economy versus what's going on globally," Smith said.

Rogers says the weakness in FedEx's numbers echoes other leading indicators he helps to track in the Logistics Managers Index, such as transportation prices and warehouse capacity, which are slowing, if not down from last year. Global shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk has also warned that trade wars are slowing global shipments.

The ongoing trade war between U.S. and China may stand at center stage right now, but other trade disputes are adding to a broader trend of fraying trade alliances in 2019. Japan and South Korea are locked in their own bitter trade war, while the Brexit drama is threatening to hurt economies in the U.K. and the European Union alike.

"Even without the trade war, we'd be seeing a change in growth. but the trade war has tipped the scale," Rogers says. "It's not just President Trump. There are underlying tensions that are starting to come to the surface around the world. Trump is the messenger of the time. He's the reflection, but not the complete cause of it."