如果你等這一天已經等了好幾個月了，等靴子真正落地時你一定不會感到奇怪。

美聯儲于7月30日宣布將聯邦基金利率下調25個基點，即降低0.25%，市場反應平靜。不過，來自于聯邦基金期貨市場的數據顯示，從幾個星期以前，每一個投資者就已經預料到至少會有這個降幅。

美聯儲不可能突然降息。“不然股市下跌的風險太高。” Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors的總裁克雷格·科斯諾表示。盡管美國的經濟表現相對強勁，但“你要受制于市場的反應，美聯儲不能讓市場失望。”

同樣，降息50個基點似乎也不太可能。“盡管歷史上一個新周期的第一次降息幅度往往是0.5%，但這樣做很容易讓金融市場懷疑美聯儲掌握了一些不為人知的內幕卻遮遮掩掩，因而感到恐慌。”Keel Point首席經濟顧問、前美國財政部和白宮國家安全委員會職員史蒂文·斯坎克表示，“聯邦基金利率下調25個基點并不會對借款人產生實質性的影響，但具有重要的象征意義，說明美聯儲正在采取行動，從而避免當經濟進一步放緩時被指責不作為。”

然而，斯坎克說，這次降息之后很可能會至少再降0.25%，“作為一項安全保險措施”。

一些分析師和顧問甚至想知道，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾此前的講話中，為何要費心發出降息信號。經濟似乎一直運行良好。

但長期關注美聯儲的經濟指數協會（Economic Index Associates）的主席兼首席執行官羅伯特·約翰遜說，這種觀點十分短視。“我們的經濟是在全球環境下運行的。”他說，“你看，全球利率如此之低，我們必須把這點考慮在內。”在過去幾年里，一些央行有時甚至會設置負利率，付錢給銀行爭著給他們劃撥貸款，目的是為了刺激經濟。

許多人都期待好年景能夠持續，至少持續一段時間，“在過去幾年里，世界一直有點奇怪。”外匯專業公司Halo Financial的創始董事戴維·約翰遜說，“美聯儲——也就是央行為國際投資者提供了最低的貸款利率，而且實際上也提供了更高的收益率，比歐洲、澳洲、亞洲、英國都高，因此當美國和中國之間的貿易摩擦、中東局勢和英國脫歐爭議的態勢趨緊時，人們甚至更容易決定把資金投入美國。”

“我認為還有很多未知因素。”約翰遜說，例如，“我們不知道這些貿易談判的結果。”貿易摩擦仍在繼續且懸而未決。其他國家的經濟不一定像美國表現一樣好。如果一些國家的經濟開始下滑，可能會影響全球經濟，阻礙美國的發展。

因此，美聯儲選擇了唯一可行的道路：在不作為和采取更激進的措施之間選擇中庸。這仍然留下了一個明顯的潛在危險：如果出現嚴重的金融收縮，美聯儲可能不再有足夠的空間來提供大幅降息，因此無法借此刺激經濟恢復正常運行。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

It’s hard to be surprised when you’ve been expecting it for months.

After the Federal Reserve’s announcement on July 30 that it would lower its basic interest rate by 25 basis points—a 0.25% cut—markets were calm. But then, data from the Fed funds futures market has suggested that for weeks 100% of investors already expected at least that much.

There was no way the Fed would have scuttled a cut. “The risk of a stock market drop would be too high,” said Craig Kirsner, president of Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors. Even though economic news in the U.S. has been relatively strong, “you are beholden to the market’s reaction and the Fed can’t disappoint.”

Similarly, a 50-basis-point cut seemed unlikely. “Although the first cut in a new cycle historically has been 0.5%, this easily could frighten financial markets about what the Fed knows but isn’t saying,” said Steven Skancke, chief economic advisor for Keel Point and former U.S. Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member. “Not that a quarter-point reduction in the Fed Funds rate makes a material difference to borrowers, but it seems to have symbolic importance that the Fed doing something, lest it be blamed for inaction if the economy slows further.”

However, chances seem likely that this cut will be followed by at least 0.25% cut “as a measure of safety and insurance,” Skancke said.

Some analysts and advisers went gone so far as to wonder why the Fed bothered signaling a cut at all in previous remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The economy seems to have been moving along well enough.

But that view is short-sighted, said Robert Johnson, chairman and CEO of Economic Index Associates and long-time Fed watcher. “We are operating in a global environment,” he said. “When you see interest rates globally that are as low as they are, we have to take that into account.” Some central banks have at times over the last few years even set negative interest rates, paying banks to lend them money in an attempt to stimulate their economies.

And a lot of people are depending on the good times to continue, at least for a while “The world has been in a slightly odd place for the past few years,” said David Johnson, founding director of foreign exchange specialist Halo Financial. “The U.S. Federal Reserve; historically the central bank that offered the cheapest lending rates for international investors, has actually been offering higher yields than Europe, Australia, Asia, and the U.K. So, when global tensions between the US and China, in the Middle East and over the UK’s EU membership have raised their heads, the movement of funds into US assets was an even easier decision.”

“I think there are a lot of unknowns out there,” Johnson said. “We don't know the outcome of these trade talks” for example. Trade wars are still unresolved and ongoing. Other national economies aren’t necessarily seeing the performance of the U.S. If some begin to falter, that could affect the global economy and hinder things in the U.S.

And so, the Fed took the only path available: moderation between doing nothing and a more aggressive path. That still leaves one clear danger: If there is a major financial contraction, the Fed may no longer have enough working room to provide a rate cut large enough to stimulate the economy back into working order.