小眾的咖啡師，是來自于瑞典的歐特力（Oatly）切入國際市場(chǎng)的優(yōu)先選擇。

在中國的“第三次浪潮”下的文青咖啡店，歐特利別具特色的包裝盒的能見度越來越高。歐特力（Oatly）——如其英文名字所指——是用燕麥片造出的像牛奶一樣的飲品，歐特力稱已經(jīng)與香港80%的文青咖啡店建立了合作關(guān)系。歐特力飲品已經(jīng)大量涌入中國南部港口，現(xiàn)在正在向北拓展，等待它們的是更為巨大的內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)。

“有些報(bào)道說，中國政府希望中國的乳品消費(fèi)能夠增加兩倍，我想在這方面我們可以提供大力支持。”歐特力的首席執(zhí)行官托尼·彼得森說。歐特力在上海設(shè)立了辦公室，產(chǎn)品鋪進(jìn)了中國2200家咖啡館和零售店，這家有著25年歷史的公司甚至還造了一個(gè)中文字——上面是草字頭，下面是個(gè)奶字——用以控制植物基奶的話語權(quán)。

這是聰明的一步棋。歐盟的法規(guī)不允許燕麥飲品廠家在本土市場(chǎng)上稱歐特利為“牛奶”。乳品業(yè)游說人士正在試圖推動(dòng)美國也出臺(tái)類似法規(guī)。不過，彼得森堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為歐特力不會(huì)把其新造的中文字注冊(cè)為商標(biāo)，而是會(huì)把它作為開放的源頭，來鼓勵(lì)圍繞乳業(yè)的各種對(duì)話。

Niche barista joints are the preferred point of entry into foreign markets for Sweden’s Oatly.

In Hong Kong, its stylized cartons are an increasingly common sight in hipster “third wave” coffee shops. Oatly, which—as its name suggests—creates a milk-like product from milled oats, claims to have partnered with 80% of such coffeehouses in the city. Having already stormed into the southern port, Oatly is beginning an expansion north into mainland China, where a much larger market awaits.

“Some reports say the Chinese government wants to triple dairy consumption in China, and I think we could be very helpful in supporting that development,” says Oatly CEO Toni Petersson. With an office in Shanghai and sales through more than 2,200 Chinese coffee shops and retailers, the 25-year-old company has even coined a Chinese character—the symbol for grass atop the one for milk—to help control the narrative about plant-based milk.

That’s a clever move. EU regulations prevent the oat-drink manufacturer from calling Oatly “milk” in its home market. Dairy lobbyists are pushing for similar restrictions in the U.S. However, Petersson insists Oatly won’t trademark its new Chinese character but will keep it open-source to help encourage dialogue around dairy alternatives.

乳業(yè)在中國蓬勃發(fā)展。去年乳業(yè)的零售總額超過了610億美元，而10年前僅為270億美元，這一數(shù)據(jù)來自于市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)歐睿國際。（美國乳業(yè)市場(chǎng)達(dá)650億美元，但最近三年有所下滑。）增長的原因部分是政府在2016年倡議民眾日均牛奶攝入量從100克增加到300克，但主要還是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的結(jié)果。

中國乳業(yè)似乎已經(jīng)克服了一個(gè)障礙，那就是乳糖不耐受的問題。據(jù)1984年的一份研究，90%的中國人的體內(nèi)缺少乳糖酶，這是一種能夠在膽內(nèi)分解乳糖的酶。但隨著中國人在飲食中加入了更多的乳品，他們體內(nèi)的乳糖酶活性也增強(qiáng)了。而在80年代，很多中國人都不喝牛奶。

“一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展了，乳糖消化不良的問題就不再是問題。”荷蘭乳業(yè)公司皇家菲仕蘭康柏尼的首席執(zhí)行官海恩·舒馬赫說。菲仕蘭康柏尼在中國銷售多種品牌的乳品，包括在香港最受歡迎的嬰兒配方乳品Friso。

隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，乳品銷量當(dāng)然也增長了，不過歐睿國際的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，低乳糖含量的乳品——奶酪、黃油和奶油——是銷量漲幅最快的產(chǎn)品類別。而且，銷往食品服務(wù)業(yè)的乳品數(shù)量要超過零售，這意味著相當(dāng)一部分的乳品進(jìn)入到了加工食品或飲料里。

“芝士茶”是一種暖暖的帶糖茶，上面覆蓋著一層厚厚的類似于奶油芝士的奶泡，這種茶在中國正在風(fēng)靡起來。菲仕蘭康柏尼已經(jīng)把它從歐洲市場(chǎng)帶來的一款卡布奇諾咖啡機(jī)重新定位成芝士茶機(jī)。舒馬赫甚至覺得這種新潮的飲品在西方也會(huì)流行起來，或許會(huì)，或許不會(huì)，但中國人對(duì)乳品的需求將以另一種方式影響世界其他地方。

Dairy is an exploding business in China. Last year the retail value of its industry passed $61 billion, up from $27 billion 10 years ago, according to market research provider Euromonitor International. (The U.S. dairy market is at $65 billion but has declined in the past three years.) The increase is explained in part by Beijing’s recommendation in 2016 that citizens up their daily dairy intake from 100 grams to 300 grams. But it’s mostly a result of economic development.

One hurdle the Chinese dairy industry seems to have overcome is lactose intolerance. More than 90% of China’s population is deficient in lactase, the enzyme that breaks down the milk sugar lactose in the gut, per a 1984 study. But lactase activity increases as people add more dairy to their diet. In 1980s China, not many people were drinking milk.

“Once you see societies developing economically, the notion of lactose intolerance seems to become less of a problem,” says Hein Schu?macher, CEO of Netherlands-based dairy firm FrieslandCampina, which sells a number of dairy brands in China, including Hong Kong’s most popular infant formula, Friso.

Dairy sales certainly are rising as China’s economy grows, although data from Euromonitor International shows that low-lactose dairy—cheese, butter, and cream—are the fastest-growing segments. Also, sales to the food-service industry outstrip retail sales, suggesting that a significant portion of dairy is going into processed foods or drinks.

“Cheese tea,” which is warm sugary chai capped with a thick dairy froth similar to cream cheese, is a growing craze in China. FrieslandCampina has actually repurposed a cappuccino machine from its European market to sell as a cheese-tea machine in China. Schumacher suspects the novelty beverage could even catch on in the West. Maybe, maybe not, but China’s thirst for dairy will impact the rest of the world in another way.

去年荷蘭的瓦赫寧恩大學(xué)暨研究中心出了一份報(bào)告指，為了滿足中國人日益增長的對(duì)牛奶的需求，乳制品造成的全球溫室氣體排放到2050年會(huì)增長35%。這種增幅部分原因在于中國國內(nèi)的乳品制造業(yè)效率很低——產(chǎn)出只有美國的一半。

在菲仕蘭康柏尼的全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展倡議中，有一部分內(nèi)容是與中國農(nóng)民合作，提高他們的效率。盡管這一舉措如整個(gè)倡議一樣令人尊敬，其效果堪憂。瓦赫寧恩大學(xué)報(bào)告的聯(lián)合作者杰拉德·維爾特霍夫說：“即便中國乳業(yè)的效率急劇提升，乳業(yè)帶來的全球溫室氣體排放和氮?dú)馀欧乓矊⑸仙?0%~25%。因?yàn)闊o論如何，中國對(duì)牛奶的需求上升終將帶來全球性的影響。”

于是，歐特力認(rèn)為自己就是那個(gè)拯救者。“我們所做的事有一個(gè)奇怪的地方，那就是我們賣得越多，對(duì)所有人越有利。”彼得森不無得意地說，他聲稱歐特力的碳排放要比乳業(yè)少80%。（2018年牛津大學(xué)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，全球平均來看，燕麥基奶產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來的排放要比乳業(yè)少60%。）這個(gè)信息可能引起中國富有的千禧一代和崛起中的Z世代人的共鳴，他們看重產(chǎn)品的環(huán)保屬性——即便是用一次性杯在喝著生態(tài)環(huán)保的燕麥奶。

歐特力計(jì)劃在亞洲開一家工廠——這將是全球新開的三家廠之一——明年竣工，用以覆蓋整個(gè)區(qū)域。彼得森說：“三到五年內(nèi)，中國將會(huì)成為我們真正重要的市場(chǎng)。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年8月刊，標(biāo)題為《中國的燕麥奶》。

譯者：Min

Last year a report by Netherlands-based Wageningen University & Research found that satisfying China’s increasing demand for cow’s milk could increase global greenhouse-gas emissions from dairy production 35% by 2050. That spike is partly because China’s domestic dairy production is so inefficient—achieving roughly half the yield of the U.S. industry.

As part of its global sustainability initiative, FrieslandCampina works with Chinese farmers to help improve their efficiency. But as admirable as that initiative is, its efforts might be moot. Wageningen report coauthor Gerard Velthof says, “Even if the efficiency of the dairy industry in China is drastically increased, global emissions of greenhouse gases and nitrogen produced by this sector will still rise by 20% to 25%. The predicted increase in China’s demand for milk will have major global consequences, whatever the scenario.”

Here’s where Oatly considers itself a savior. “The strange thing about what we do is the more we sell, the better it is for everybody,” ?Petersson says, claiming Oatly’s carbon footprint is 80% smaller than the equivalent of dairy. (A 2018 Oxford University study found the global average for oat-milk production was 60% less emissions than those for dairy.) That’s a message that should resonate with China’s wealthy millennials and emergent Generation Z, who value products with environmental positioning—even if they will take their eco-friendly Oatly lattes in disposable cups.

Oatly plans to open a factory in Asia—one of three new plants globally—next year to help cover the region. “In three to five years,” Petersson says, “we think China is going to be really, really important for us.”?

A version of this article appears in the August 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Milking Oats for China.”