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失去《老友記》不是問題,但Netflix需要加倍努力

失去《老友記》不是問題,但Netflix需要加倍努力

Dan Reilly 2019-08-01
Netflix在流媒體領域里的主導地位正在下滑,但有很多理由相信,它能夠避免大批量用戶流失。

隨著大量競爭對手即將上線,《老友記》(Friends)和《辦公室》(The Office)等劇集退出Netflix,人們理所當然就認為Netflix遇到了麻煩。的確如此,它在這個領域里的主導地位正在下滑,從它上季度增長疲軟、流失了近13萬付費用戶就可以看出。盡管迪士尼+、HBO Max、NCB環球(NBCUniversal)和蘋果(Apple)的流媒體服務都將在不久后的將來面世,但有很多理由相信,該公司將能夠避免大批量用戶流失。

大部分專家認為,原創節目很可能成為流媒體平臺能否稱霸的最終決定因素,但Netflix如何能夠繼續占據主導地位卻仍然面臨著許多問題。

“(第二季度)的業績與競爭無關,因為蘋果、迪士尼、HBO Max等公司的流媒體服務仍未面世?!毖芯抗綟rost and Sullivan的首席分析師丹·雷伯恩表示,“內容為王,尤其是觀眾喜歡的原創劇集是最重要的。隨著Netflix在第三、第四季度推出更多原創內容,用戶增長應該會恢復。對Netflix而言,第二季度的表現十分糟糕,但他們仍然遠遠領先于市場上的其他公司。”

因此,這種糟糕的業績應該會因為7月《怪奇物語》(Stranger Things)的成功和暑期票房的低迷開始被抵消,這表明Netflix的未來之路雖將更加艱難,但并沒有被淘汰出局。

下列幾條原因部分解釋了為什么即使Netflix失去了備受歡迎的第三方劇集,即使激烈的行業競爭日益迫近,也并不意味著公司前景黯淡,也說明了該公司應當如何提升內容和企業行為以保持增長:

失去“爽心內容”并不是什么大問題

尼爾森的報告和其他數據分析表明,Netflix自己也承認,《辦公室》和《老友記》都位居Netflix最受歡迎的節目之列。不過,沒有確切的數據——就《辦公室》而言,Netflix只是說:“2018年,它的總播放時長超過520億分鐘,而在2019年4月,它的觀看量幾乎是播放量第二高的節目的兩倍?!?

但這只能發告訴公眾,這部劇和其他節目相比表現如何,而無法看出它在全部劇集的播放量中所占份額?!独嫌延洝返氖軞g迎程度仍然是個謎,不過正如南加州大學安能伯格數字未來中心(USC Annenberg Center for The Digital Future)的創始人及主任杰弗里·科爾所言,“他們愿意為《老友記》1年支付1億美元,這個事實顯示出他們對這部劇的重視程度?!毖芯抗綧offettNathanson對11000多名Netflix訂閱用戶進行的一項最新調查顯示,在Netflix最受歡迎的20部電視節目中,有15部是原創劇,其中《女子監獄》(Orange Is the New Black)和《怪奇物語》位居榜首。上榜的共有四部第三方電視劇,《辦公室》和《老友記》分別排在第9位和第10位,落后于Netflix的其他原創劇和“電影”這一囊括一切的類別。

“它很受歡迎,但它能夠讓你留下來嗎?”雷伯恩說,“受歡迎與否并不重要——你只需要關心這部劇可以留住用戶還是會失去用戶。我沒聽說會有哪個人說:‘我必須訂HBO Max的會員,因為他們有《老友記》。’”

競爭對手很多,但細節很少

在眾多即將推出的流媒體服務中,只有迪士尼提供了具體細節。我們知道迪士尼的流媒體服務將于11月12日面世,每個月的訂閱費是6.99美元,收錄了該公司旗下的大量電影,包括皮克斯(Pixar)、漫威(Marvel)和《星球大戰》(Star Wars)系列。NBC環球表示,它的服務將提供兩種選擇:一種是面向有線電視用戶的免費版,由廣告費用支持;另一種是付費版,價格尚未公布,但有傳言稱,將在10至14美元之間,面向的是不愿看廣告以及沒有有線電視的用戶。

據報道,HBO Max每月訂閱費為16到17美元,內容包括HBO旗下的劇集以及華納傳媒的許多節目,母公司美國電話電報公司(AT&T)官宣的包括《老友記》、《貝萊爾的新鮮王子》(The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air)和《美少女的謊言》(Pretty Little Liars)。“這是三部大劇,這些劇集讓他們的服務具有革命性。你是HBO啊,你準備用這些內容霸屏嗎?”雷伯恩說。

與此同時,Apple TV+并沒有確定的推出日期、價格,也沒有任何信息透露沒有蘋果設備的用戶將如何觀看它的內容。到目前為止,僅僅宣布了一些原創節目,以及與奧普拉、斯皮爾伯格、JJ·艾布拉姆斯和詹妮弗·安妮斯頓等人達成的協議。

雖然迪士尼+看起來會大受歡迎,但看它的定位,不會成為狙擊Netflix的殺手。 “這個派對上唯一有點特別的是迪士尼,因為他們是唯一擁有工作室的品牌?!笨茽栒f,“6.99美元是個很吸引人的價格。但我不認為人們需要在‘Netflix或迪士尼’之間做選擇?!?

Netflix正在提升其原創內容(但仍有進步空間)

一旦所有的流媒體服務項目都上線運行,決定人們給誰花錢的最關鍵因素是原創內容的質量、數量和連貫性。Netflix在《女子監獄》和《怪奇物語》等劇集上顯然做得非常好,但它需要調整自己的方式,避免人們在沒有熱門節目時取消訂閱,好節目上線時再重新續訂。

“現在每家公司都在爭搶同一批觀眾和他們手里的錢。”雷伯恩說,“消費者不會同時訂閱10項服務,所以他們必須選出自己想要的內容,這些服務必須都在創造看起來非常好的原創內容。Hulu注意到人們在不斷退訂再續訂他們的直播服務?;@球賽季開始了,用戶就訂閱兩個月,然后停三個月。切換很容易,這對消費者來說是件好事。他們會不斷地在不同服務中間跳躍?!?

Netflix已經開始轉型,從擁有數萬部劇集、重視廣度和深度的服務,轉向對內容進行精挑細選、精心展示的服務,這既帶來了問題,也帶來了機遇。

一家電影融資在線市場(為項目、投資者和發行方牽線)的首席執行官斯蒂芬·帕特諾特說,以前“誰能夠搞清楚如何流暢地播放視頻,誰就可以占領整個市場”,Netflix那時擁有一片綠地,“我把它稱為‘第一階段’,目的是盡可能多地吸引全世界用戶訂閱流媒體服務。‘第二階段’是,‘我們如何制作出最好的內容,同時還能節約成本?’Netflix已經發現了,制作1000部電視劇,在其中找到10部好劇,這種做法無效資本率非常高。他們要如何在全球范圍內提升內容,吸引不同語言、文化和興趣的觀眾?”

科爾認同,Netflix必須在成本控制方面做得更好,但他認為解決方法不是繼續制作這么多電視劇,還有其他方案?!癗etflix必須減少節目數量,提高節目質量。HBO用 25億美元制作的內容,比Netflix花120億美元做的還要多?!彼f,“我覺得挺有意思的一件事是,他們的很多劇集都不會超過第二季或者第三季。這樣他們就沒有辦法囤像《辦公室》這樣100多集的電視劇?!?/p>

盡管《老友記》這樣的經典劇集正在從Netflix流失,但這些年來,它們對于Netflix而言是無價之寶。“影視巨頭為了建立自己的流媒體平臺,正在把這些經典劇目從平臺上撤出,但Netflix仍然需要依賴這些經典劇目在本平臺播放期間所收集的數據,為自己的未來項目開發計劃提供指引,比如題材、出品方或明星等。”奧本大學的媒體研究助理教授埃莉諾·帕特森說,“比如說,想一想Netflix與亞當·桑德勒的合同,或者他們對青少年電視和電影的投資。這些都是他們通過研究用戶觀看桑德勒電影或者20世紀八九十年代的經典青少年喜劇等第三方節目的數據后得出的直接結論?!碑吘?,我們都看到了桑德勒的最新電影《謀殺之謎》(Murder Mystery)在全球的表現。

Netflix可以考慮開發一個廣告支持的版本

這個想法聽起來可能不太入時,但開發一個由廣告支持的版本對于Netflix而言可能是一個很棒的商業舉措?!皼]有人喜歡廣告,但是如果你想從1.5億用戶增加到10億用戶,你就必須找到一種方法,讓人們能夠在很長一段時間內免費試用你的服務?!迸撂刂Z特說,“Spotify讓每個人都能夠不受限地使用他們的服務,吸引住了用戶,同時因為他們的服務實在太棒了,最后有一半的人都選擇了付費訂閱。Hulu也在做同樣的事情。他們在廣告支持方面做得很好,但給人們足夠的理由去訂閱高清和不含廣告的節目?!?/p>

還可以繼續爭取第三方內容授權,不分大小

即使經典情景喜劇和迪士尼旗下內容都高調退出,但仍然有許多電影和電視節目不屬于任何現有或即將推出的流媒體公司旗下??茽栍幸粋€建議:“如果我是Netflix,我會盡快鎖定索尼和派拉蒙。”

它還可以與規模較小的制作公司簽約來填補內容上可能出現的任何空白?!八麄冋谠噲D弄明白電影公司很久以前就已經明白了的道理,那就是,‘對于我們而言,做一些受眾非常廣的大項目相對來說更容易,我們可以和專業公司合作填補細分市場的空白,填上那些更加小眾高端的內容。”帕特諾特說,“電影公司收購了這樣那樣的小規模制作公司,或者和它們合作,但即使在過去20年里,它們也一直在拆解這些公司。Netflix一直在建可以用來處理大、中、小型項目的基礎設施。它有一個優勢,它有能力讓中小規模的項目賺錢,大型工作室現在都還沒有這個能力?,F在是時候開始轉向這個方向了,要做好準備?!?

最后,Netflix用戶的忠誠度值得依賴

MoffettNathanson對Netflix用戶的調查顯示,即使費用上升,他們的忠誠度仍然很高:“26%的受訪者表示,他們能夠容忍1到2美元的漲價,還有28%的人覺得超過2美元也愿意。”(這個數字還沒不包括14%使用他人付費賬戶的Netflix用戶,這部分用戶的存在是因為用戶之間共享密碼的問題還沒有得到解決。)

科爾說,即使自己熟悉喜歡的服務或品牌出現了一些小的變化,但一些用戶仍然堅持使用,這是出于“慣性”。如他所言,“仍然有200萬人訂閱美國在線(AOL)來接收電子郵件?!?/p>

整體而言,他說Netflix不會遇上問題,這點雷伯恩、帕特諾特和帕特森都同意,但要想有競爭力,它必須得比以前更聰明?!拔业挠^點是,Netflix不會消失,但眼下還有其他幾種流媒體服務,這會讓它們更難實現現有增長。他們現在不再是派對的主人了。”(財富中文網)

譯者:Agatha

With plenty of competitors set to launch, and shows like Friends and The Office leaving its service, it’s easy to think that Netflix is in trouble. And it is—to the extent that its status as the dominant player in this field is slipping, as seen in its sluggish growth and loss of almost 130,000 subscribers last quarter. But there are many reasons to believe the company will avoid a mass subscriber exodus as Disney+, HBO Max, and NBCUniversal and Apple’s streaming services all launch in the near future.

As the experts mostly agree, original programming will likely be the ultimate determining factor in which streaming platform reigns supreme, but many questions remain as to how Netflix can remain there.

“[The second-quarter] news has nothing to do with competition, since Apple, Disney, HBO Max, etc. still have not launched in the market,” says Dan Rayburn, principal analyst at research firm Frost and Sullivan. “Content is king, especially original series that consumers can binge. As Netflix ramps up original content releases for Q3 and Q4, subscriber growth should return. It’s a bad quarter for them, absolutely, but they are still far, far ahead of the other services in the market.”

So, that poor performance, which should be offset thanks to the July success of Stranger Things and a sluggish start to summer at the box office, shows that Netflix is in for a tougher road ahead, but isn't out of the game.

Here are some of the reasons why the loss of popular licensed shows and looming competition don’t spell doom and gloom for Netflix, and how it can improve its content and corporate behavior to keep growing:

Losing “Comfort-Food Content” Isn’t a Dealbreaker

Based on reports from Nielsen and other analyses, as well as Netflix’s own admission, The Office and Friends were among the service’s most popular programs. The exact data is still mysterious, though—in regards to The Office, Netflix only said, “In 2018, it was streamed for over 52 billion minutes, and in April 2019, it was viewed nearly twice as much as the next most-viewed program on [streaming video on demand].”

But that only tells the public how it fared in comparison to other shows, not the total share of streams. The popularity of Friends is also still a mystery, though as Jeffrey Cole, founder and director of the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future, points out, “The fact they’d pay $100 million for one year of Friends shows how much value they put on it.” A new poll of over 11,000 Netflix subscribers by research firm MoffettNathanson showed that out of the 20 most popular shows on the service, 15 were originals, with Orange Is the New Black and Stranger Things leading the way. Of the four licensed shows on the list, The Office and Friends were at nine and 10, respectively, behind other Netflix originals and the catch-all category of “movies.”

“It’s popular but does it make you stay?” says Rayburn. “Popular doesn’t matter—you simply care whether or not that content is a driver to keep a subscriber or to lose a subscriber. I don’t know anybody who’s going, ‘I’ve got to sign up with HBO Max because they have Friends.’”

There’s Lots of Competition But Few Details About It

Of the many upcoming streaming services, only Disney’s has offered concrete details surrounding its launch. We know it will debut Nov. 12, will cost $6.99 per month, and feature the company’s backlog of movies, including its Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars catalog. NBCUniversal says its service will come with two options, a free ad-supported version for cable subscribers and a premium tier, price to be announced but rumored to be $10 to $14, for ad-free viewing and those without cable.

HBO Max will reportedly cost $16 to $17 a month, with HBO’s back catalog and many Warner Media shows including, as per its corporate parent AT&T’s announcement, Friends, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, and Pretty Little Liars. “The three biggest pieces of content that makes their service so revolutionary. You’re HBO and you’re leading with that?” says Rayburn.

Apple TV+, meanwhile, doesn’t have a set launch date, price, or any information on how people who don’t have Apple devices will be able to watch it. The only announcements so far are a handful of original shows and deals with the likes of Oprah, Steven Spielberg, J.J. Abrams, and Jennifer Aniston.

While it appears Disney+ will be a hit, it also doesn’t seem positioned as a Netflix killer. “The only one who brings anything special to the party is Disney ‘cause they’re the only studio that ever had a brand,” says Cole. “The $6.99 is a brilliant number. I don’t think people make the decision, ‘Netflix or Disney.’”

Netflix Is Improving Its Original Content (But Still Has Work to Do)

Once all the services are up and running, the deciding factor of how people spend their money will come down to the quality, quantity, and consistency of original content. Netflix is obviously doing very well with programming like Orange Is the New Black and Stranger Things, but it will need modify its approach to keep people from canceling and renewing their subscriptions between services when the most buzzed-about shows come out.

“Everybody’s competing now for the same eyeballs and the same dollars,” says Rayburn. “Consumers are not going to sign up for 10 services, so they’ll have to pick and choose what content they want, because these services are all creating what looks like really good original content. Hulu noticed people starting and stopping their live service all the time. Basketball season picks up and they take it for two months then stop for three. It’s very easy to switch, which is great for consumers. They’ll jump and jump and jump.”

Netflix has already started its transition from a “breadth and depth” service with tens of thousands of titles to a more selective, curated library, which presents both problems and opportunity.

Netflix had nothing but green fields when it was “whoever’s better at figuring out how to stream smoothly was going to grab the whole market,” says Stephan Paternot, the CEO of Slated, an online film-financing marketplace, pairing projects with investors and distributors. “‘Phase one,’ as I call it, was to grab as much streaming subscriber-ship as you can in the world. ‘Phase two’ is, ‘How do we make the best content, and now be cost-effective about it?’ Netflix is discovering that making a thousand shows so you can find 10 good ones is very capital inefficient. How are they all going to scale up their content to appeal to audiences of different languages, cultures, interests, on a global level?”

Cole agrees that Netflix will have to be better about its costs but sees a different solution than continuing to produce so many shows. “Netflix has to make less and better programming. HBO does more with $2.5 billion than Netflix does with $12 billion,” he says. “One thing I think is interesting is their phenomenon of not letting many series go beyond the second or third season. That’s kept them from stockpiling a hundred episodes of a show like The Office.”

Even though it’s losing shows like that, the years of having them are invaluable to Netflix. “As legacy television programs are pulled by conglomerates building their own streaming platforms, Netflix is going to rely on the viewing data they have collected while having these licenses to guide their programming development, as far as genre, producer or known talent,” says Eleanor Patterson, assistant professor of Media Studies at Auburn University. “Consider, for instance, the Netflix deal with Adam Sandler or their investment in teen television and films. These were direct results of their user data on licensed programming like Sandler films or classic teen comedies from the 1980s and 1990s.” After all, we all saw how well Sandler’s latest movie, Murder Mystery, performed globally.

Netflix Can Always Create an Ad-Supported Tier

It might not sound like a popular idea, but going with an ad-supported version might be a great business move for Netflix. “Nobody likes commercials, but if you want to go from 150 million subscribers to a billion, you’re going to have to find a way to give people a taste of your service for an extended period of time for free,” says Paternot. “Spotify is getting everyone hooked with unlimited usage, but the service is so damn good that 50% of people purchased the subscription. Hulu is accomplishing the same thing. They’re doing well with the ad-supported side, but there’s enough reasons to subscribe with higher definition and commercial-free.”

It Can Also Keep Licensing Content, Big and Small

Even with the high-profile departures of sitcoms and the Disney catalog, there is plenty of film and television out that’s not controlled by any current or upcoming service. Cole has one suggestion in mind: “If I were Netflix, I'd lock down Sony and Paramount as fast as possible.”

It can also make deals with smaller production companies to fill any content voids. “They’re figuring out what the studios long ago figured it out, which is, ‘It’s easier for us just to make a dozen really, really big features that travel really well and we’ll just work with specialty companies in the market to fill the more niche content, the more prestige stuff,” says Paternot. “The studios acquired and partnered with all these different smaller production companies, but then even over the last two decades, have been dismantling them. Netflix has been building up their infrastructure to handle big, medium, and small projects. It still has an advantage in its ability to monetize medium to small that the bigger studios don’t have yet. It’s time for them to start pivoting [to that] and batten down the hatches.”

Finally, Netflix Can Bank on Loyalty

The MoffettNathanson poll of Netflix users showed that they’re a loyal bunch, even if the costs were to rise: “26% of survey respondents reported they would tolerate a $1-2 increase while a further 28% would be willing to pay over $2 more.” (That number doesn’t account for the 14% of users who use a Netflix account paid for by someone else, which stems from the yet-unsolved issue of password sharing among users.)

Cole refers to people sticking with a service or brand they know and enjoy, despite minor changes, as “inertia.” As he points out, “There are still 2 million people who subscribe to AOL to get email.”

Overall, he says Netflix will be fine, a sentiment Rayburn, Paternot, and Patterson agree with, but it will have to work smarter than ever before to compete. “My view is not that they’re going to disappear, but they’re going to be one of several services now and that's going to make it harder to grow the way they have. They don’t own the party now.”

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