有關(guān)美國(guó)民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人最近辯論的評(píng)論一再出現(xiàn)，這或許讓大家覺得全世界都只關(guān)心這場(chǎng)“家庭食物大戰(zhàn)”。沒有看到或聽到上月巴林經(jīng)濟(jì)峰會(huì)任何相關(guān)消息的人絕不止你一個(gè)。

不過，盡管美國(guó)媒體基本上忽略了這次會(huì)議，但其他國(guó)家的新聞機(jī)構(gòu)還是看到了一些不同凡響的歷史性進(jìn)展。本次峰會(huì)由美國(guó)政府組織，巴林王儲(chǔ)主持，會(huì)上出現(xiàn)了體現(xiàn)新思路的不同聲音，也展示了實(shí)現(xiàn)巴勒斯坦發(fā)展夢(mèng)想的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源。

到會(huì)的逾300名高級(jí)代表來自于30個(gè)國(guó)家，包括澳大利亞和阿根廷，迪拜和德里，尼日利亞和挪威，甚至是不大可能同時(shí)出現(xiàn)的沙特和卡塔爾以及希臘和土耳其。會(huì)議明確提出，其目的是扭轉(zhuǎn)過去50年的和平進(jìn)程（也就是奧斯陸、巴黎和安納波利斯中東問題會(huì)議），或者說，先建立共同的經(jīng)濟(jì)愿景，再開始政治上的“地盤爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)”（我自愿在本次峰會(huì)的一個(gè)討論會(huì)上擔(dān)任主持人）。

白宮高級(jí)顧問賈里德·庫什納披露了500億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃，如果付諸實(shí)施，則有望在未來達(dá)成政治上的和平協(xié)議。他的計(jì)劃讓反對(duì)派得以憧憬緊張局勢(shì)平息后會(huì)有怎樣的生活質(zhì)量。此項(xiàng)方案回顧了孟加拉國(guó)和韓國(guó)等曾經(jīng)因?yàn)檎蝿?dòng)蕩而四分五裂的國(guó)家在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方面的非凡成就，然后詳細(xì)說明了撥款、低息貸款和私人投資的具體用途，其目的是讓巴勒斯坦經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模翻番，創(chuàng)造100萬個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，將巴勒斯坦的失業(yè)率從30%降至個(gè)位數(shù)，并讓50%的貧困人口脫困。

這個(gè)巴林方案提出了約190個(gè)具體項(xiàng)目，其目標(biāo)包括將出口收入占巴勒斯坦GDP的比重從17%提高到40%，確保可靠供電，使飲用水供應(yīng)增加一倍，讓更多的學(xué)校用上高速數(shù)據(jù)服務(wù)，提高女性就業(yè)參與率，并將外商直接投資提高500%。它將加大對(duì)旅游、農(nóng)業(yè)、數(shù)字服務(wù)、住房和制造等關(guān)鍵行業(yè)的投資，同時(shí)改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，比如投資50億美元修建連接加沙和約旦河西岸的高速公路。雖然其中許多項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)和世界銀行等組織此前的發(fā)展規(guī)劃重合，但這是第一個(gè)旨在將這些措施全部整合在一起并提供充足資金的方案。

黑石集團(tuán)的首席執(zhí)行官蘇世民、美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司的首席執(zhí)行官蘭德爾·斯蒂芬森等美國(guó)企業(yè)負(fù)責(zé)人也在會(huì)上為這些計(jì)劃背書。到會(huì)的幾十位高管都表示，這些提議代表著吸引人的投資機(jī)會(huì)，其經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)非常合理，而它們所處的法治環(huán)境也有望助其蓬勃發(fā)展。

6月26日，本次峰會(huì)閉幕式在麥納麥四季酒店宴會(huì)廳舉行。會(huì)場(chǎng)上，美國(guó)財(cái)政部部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·姆努欽帶頭讓大家安靜下來。包括主持人、巴林王儲(chǔ)薩勒曼·本·哈邁德·阿勒哈利法在內(nèi)，各國(guó)高官、外交使節(jié)和企業(yè)首腦都贊許地注視著海灣國(guó)家外長(zhǎng)和財(cái)長(zhǎng)在巴林外交大臣哈立德·本·艾哈邁德·阿勒哈利法之后登上主席臺(tái)，后者表示：“以色列是本地區(qū)的一個(gè)國(guó)家，當(dāng)然會(huì)繼續(xù)存在下去。就像戴維營(yíng)峰會(huì)顯著影響了歷史走向一樣……如果本次會(huì)議取得成功，如果我們?cè)诖嘶A(chǔ)上加以努力，而且獲得關(guān)注和動(dòng)力，它就有可能第二次影響歷史走向。”

距離產(chǎn)生美

很多媒體報(bào)道的重點(diǎn)都是誰沒有參加巴林會(huì)議。巴勒斯坦政府呼吁抵制本次峰會(huì)。控制加沙地帶的哈馬斯組織則對(duì)大會(huì)予以譴責(zé)。同時(shí)，受以色列政治局勢(shì)波動(dòng)影響，本雅明·內(nèi)塔尼亞胡政府未派出代表團(tuán)。但要說有什么影響的話，那就是本次會(huì)議驗(yàn)證了“距離產(chǎn)生美”這句話。在相互爭(zhēng)斗了幾十年的巴勒斯坦和以色列政客雙雙缺席的情況下，本次會(huì)議不可能為即將參加大選的內(nèi)塔尼亞胡包裝成一次拉票活動(dòng)，這就使對(duì)話有望展開，友誼有望得到發(fā)展。

對(duì)懷疑者來說，這些人的缺席給抨擊本次會(huì)議提供了口實(shí)。巴以兩個(gè)陣營(yíng)的反對(duì)者都認(rèn)為外交協(xié)議應(yīng)該先于經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)議。更具體的說，許多人反對(duì)巴林方案的原因是它并未提供能夠幫助巴勒斯坦建國(guó)的所謂的兩國(guó)解決方案。

賈里德·庫什納在6月26日的開幕式發(fā)言中回應(yīng)了這樣的想法，他說“過去反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的令人絕望的情況足以”說明局勢(shì)是如何難以改變。蘇世民則對(duì)與會(huì)者表示“從大局出發(fā)并且擁有夢(mèng)想很重要”。

作為對(duì)話促進(jìn)人，我?guī)缀鯀⒓恿吮敬畏鍟?huì)的所有正式和非正式活動(dòng)。我甚至沒有聽到一句反猶太復(fù)國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)的話，而我原本以為在以色列的歷史批評(píng)人士多于其同盟的情況下會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣的言論。相反，阿拉伯國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的表態(tài)和庫什納以及蘇世民類似。談判專家總是說要點(diǎn)在于把人們的情感和他們的立場(chǎng)分離開來，然后再把存在分歧的立場(chǎng)和有可能存在共同點(diǎn)的問題分離開來。看來本次巴林峰會(huì)做到了這一點(diǎn)，人們的發(fā)言以及發(fā)表這些言論的人讓大家情緒高漲。

許多個(gè)世紀(jì)以來，猶太人和巴勒斯坦人的關(guān)系既有長(zhǎng)期暴力對(duì)抗，也有長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的和平共處。在本次會(huì)議上，巴勒斯坦著名企業(yè)首腦、約旦河西岸城鎮(zhèn)希伯倫一大氏族領(lǐng)袖艾希拉法·賈巴里講述了他和猶太定居者的關(guān)系是如何的深厚——他甚至為巴勒斯坦人和猶太定居者的公司建立了聯(lián)合會(huì)，以便雙方合作。就像他在6月26日所說：“跟以色列人合作對(duì)我來說沒有什么問題。該向前邁進(jìn)了。”在他發(fā)言時(shí)，微笑點(diǎn)頭的不光是十幾位和他一樣的巴勒斯坦企業(yè)負(fù)責(zé)人，還有十幾位到會(huì)的以色列公司領(lǐng)袖，包括海運(yùn)大亨舍羅米·弗吉爾。

盡管會(huì)議廳的空調(diào)很足，但在發(fā)言時(shí)賈巴里的額頭仍然滲出了亮晶晶的汗水。他講完后，我走過去跟他握手，他則給了我一個(gè)熊抱。后來我了解到他參加會(huì)議并發(fā)言冒了怎樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。可悲的是，巴勒斯坦代表團(tuán)的另一名成員回去之后在一次家庭活動(dòng)中被巴勒斯坦政府逮捕，代表團(tuán)的其他成員也發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的家遭到了搜查。賈巴里告訴《耶路撒冷郵報(bào)》：“巴勒斯坦政府不想要和平。他們告訴那些商人的家人，他們會(huì)因?yàn)閰⒓影土謺?huì)議而被通緝。” 賈巴里還說本次會(huì)議是個(gè)“巨大的成功，而且正是因此，[巴勒斯坦總統(tǒng)馬哈茂德·]阿巴斯才非常擔(dān)心。”

重新燃起希望

巴林峰會(huì)的設(shè)想代表著希望精神，這種精神來自于巴勒斯坦和以色列企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人及其遍布全球的同行，它為該地區(qū)越發(fā)失望的年輕人帶來了受歡迎的答案，和因?yàn)榘鸵允〉恼晤I(lǐng)導(dǎo)而越發(fā)盛行的犬儒主義相比，它反其道而行之。幾十年的暴力磨難讓年輕人開始要求作出改變，也讓他們對(duì)阿拉伯鄰居的直接訴求敞開懷抱。巴林會(huì)議探討的那些計(jì)劃為年輕人提供了尋找價(jià)值和成效的途徑。

巴勒斯坦人的情況尤其由此，他們被集體默認(rèn)為“難民”的時(shí)間已經(jīng)太過長(zhǎng)久。沙特的一位高級(jí)外交官在最近表示，巴勒斯坦人不應(yīng)該繼續(xù)自視為受害者，這樣才能更好地為自己爭(zhēng)取權(quán)力。

阿聯(lián)酋的Emmar Properties公司是全球最大的商業(yè)營(yíng)建商之一。該公司的創(chuàng)始人穆罕默德·阿拉巴在會(huì)上說：“年輕一代不會(huì)讓我們被過去束縛。巴勒斯坦人是自己人。我們每天早晨都樂觀地醒來，希望能做更多的事……通過創(chuàng)造就業(yè)與收入機(jī)會(huì)并且填補(bǔ)基本服務(wù)缺口，私營(yíng)行業(yè)能幫助一個(gè)脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)體蓄積能量，并讓當(dāng)?shù)孛癖姷男睦锶计鹣Ｍ！?/p>

庫爾特·勒溫、赫伯特·科爾曼等沖突管理專家一直謹(jǐn)慎地表示，和對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)型后生活狀態(tài)的共同愿景相比，計(jì)劃執(zhí)行的發(fā)散性細(xì)節(jié)不那么有價(jià)值。在政治解決方案獲得接受前，各方都必須設(shè)想一種遠(yuǎn)好于現(xiàn)狀而且非常令人渴望的情境。

也許是沒有進(jìn)行過這方面的研究，《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》在6月28日的社論中將巴林方案斥為“不切實(shí)際的異想天開”，而且也像歷史上毫無依據(jù)的老調(diào)調(diào)一樣說外交解決方案必須走在經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃之前。這篇社論忽略的問題是“政治解決方案先行論”的失敗歷史。到目前為止，這種論調(diào)通常都意味著沒有解決方案。可惜，持同樣觀點(diǎn)而又自私的倡議團(tuán)體、國(guó)際組織和政客非常之多。

見證了巴林精神的人則有不同的感受。就像曾經(jīng)在奧巴馬政府中擔(dān)任中東和平特使的大衛(wèi)·馬可夫斯基在一次活動(dòng)上對(duì)我說的那樣：“我希望巴林會(huì)議之后……我們不光會(huì)說我們提出了一項(xiàng)令人信服的最終解決方案，我們還要向前邁進(jìn)，以便讓它在短期內(nèi)變得更實(shí)際一些。巴以雙方在桌子下面的合作已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了好些年，現(xiàn)在這張桌子看來已經(jīng)被抬了起來，因?yàn)樗旅娴娜颂嗔恕！?/p>

就是在這樣一張騰空的桌子下面，巴勒斯坦企業(yè)負(fù)責(zé)人和海灣其他國(guó)家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人以及以色列、非洲、歐洲和美洲的資助人站在了一起。這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的私心已經(jīng)進(jìn)入警戒狀態(tài)，因?yàn)閷?shí)用主義驅(qū)走了當(dāng)?shù)厝说睦Щ蟆ＯＭ麄儼盐兆〗o這個(gè)地區(qū)注入活力的機(jī)會(huì)，并且接受跨越了地區(qū)和種族界限的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源和投資。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者杰弗里·索南菲爾德是耶魯大學(xué)管理學(xué)院高級(jí)副院長(zhǎng)、管理實(shí)務(wù)專業(yè)萊斯特·克朗教席教授，他在巴林“從和平到繁榮”經(jīng)濟(jì)峰會(huì)上擔(dān)任主持人。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Amid the constant recycling of commentary about the recent Democratic Party candidate debates, you might have thought the world was riveted only by this intra-family food fight. If you didn’t read or hear anything about last month’s Bahrain economic summit, you are not alone.

But while U.S. media largely ignored this event, the global media saw something remarkable and historic unfold. The summit, organized by the U.S. government and hosted by Bahrain’s crown prince, showcased different voices with new ideas and the economic resources to bring to life dreams of progress in Palestine.

Over 300 top delegates came from 30 countries, from Australia and Argentina; Dubai and Delhi; Nigeria and Norway; and even such unlikely pairings as Saudi Arabia and Qatar or Greece and Turkey. The explicit purpose was to reverse the sequence of the past 50 years of peace efforts (e.g. Oslo, Paris, Annapolis) – that is, to share an economic vision before delving into divisive political real estate battles. (I served as a volunteer moderator at one panel during the summit.)

White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner unveiled a $50 billion economic plan, one whose implementation would be predicated on a future political peace agreement. His plan gives the opposing parties a chance to visualize what the quality of life could be like when tensions subside. Drawing on the remarkable economic-development successes in other countries that have been torn by past political violence, including Bangladesh and South Korea, the proposal details highly specific uses of grants, low-interest loans, and private investment intended to double the size of the Palestinian economy, create one million new jobs, reduce Palestinian unemployment from 30% to single digits, and reduce Palestinian poverty by 50%.

Roughly 190 specific projects in the Bahrain plan would aim to increase export revenue from 17% to 40% of Palestinian GDP; ensure reliable electricity; double the drinkable water supply; connect more schools to high-speed data services; increase women’s participation in the work force; and generate a 500% increase in foreign direct investment. The plan would boost investment in key industries such as tourism, agriculture, digital services, housing, and manufacturing; it would also provide for infrastructure enhancements such as a $5 billion high-speed highway connecting Gaza to the West Bank. While many of these projects echo goals of earlier development plans from the World Bank and other organizations, this is the first plan that aims to comprehensively integrate these efforts—and to adequately fund them.

U.S. business leaders, including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman and AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson, were present to give these plans their endorsement. They and dozens of other executives cited the proposals as attractive investment opportunities, with very reasonable financial targets, in an environment where the rule of law could help them thrive.

A hush fell over the Four Seasons banquet hall in Manama during June 26 closing panel, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Top officials, diplomats and business leaders, including the host, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, watched approvingly as foreign affairs and finance ministers from the Gulf Coast countries joined Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa on stage. The minister proclaimed: “Israel is a country in the region and it is there to stay, of course. As much as Camp David was a major game-changer…if this succeeds, and we build on it, and it attracts attention and momentum, this would be the second game-changer.”

Absence made hearts grow fonder

Much media coverage focused on who was not present in Bahrain. The Palestinian Authority called for a boycott of the conference. Hamas, which effectively rules the Gaza Strip, condemned it. And due to Israeli political turmoil, the administration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not send a delegation. But if anything, this event demonstrated that “absence makes the heart grow fonder.” In the absence of Palestinian and Israeli politicians who have been frustrating each other for decades, and with no risk of the event being packaged as a campaign rally for Netanyahu, who faces upcoming elections, dialogue and comity could grow.

To cynics, the absences provided ammunition to condemn the conference. Opponents allied with both the Palestinians and Israeli sides have argued that diplomatic agreements must precede economic ones. More specifically, many oppose the Bahrain approach because it doesn’t provide for a so-called two-state solution that creates a sovereign Palestinian nation.

Jared Kushner addressed this mindset in his opening comments on June 26, saying, “Enough of the old broken record” of handwringing over how things cannot change. Schwarzman told the attendees that “it is important to think big and to have a dream.”

As a discussion facilitator, I attended virtually every second of the formal and informal elements of this event. I did not hear even passing anti-Zionist comments, as much as I would have expected them in an atmosphere where Israel’s historic critics outnumbered its allies. Instead, Arab leaders echoed comments like Kushner’s and Schwarzman’s. Negotiation experts talk of the importance of separating the emotions of people from the positions they take, and then separating divisive positions from issues where there may be common ground. The Bahrain summit seemed to accomplish that, and spirits soared over what was said and who said it.

Over many centuries, relations between Jews and Palestinians have fluctuated between long periods of violent conflict and peaceful coexistence. At this conference, prominent Palestinian business leader Ashraf Jabari, who heads a large clan in Hebron on the West Bank, explained how he has advanced bonds with Jewish settlers—even creating a business association for Palestinian and settlement businesses to work collaboratively. As he said on June 26, “I have no problem working with Israel. It is time to move on.” Smiling and nodding as he spoke were not only a dozen fellow Palestinian leaders but also the dozen Israeli business leaders present, including shipping magnate Shlomi Fogel.

Despite the well air-conditioned ballroom, Jabari’s brow glistened with sweat as he addressed the group. I went to shake his hand after he spoke and he gave me a bear hug. Since then, I’ve learned what he put at risk by being there and speaking out. Sadly, another member of the Palestinian delegation was arrested by the Palestinian Authority at a family event upon returning home; other delegation members saw their homes raided. “The Palestinian Authority does not want peace. They told the families of the businessmen that they are wanted for participating in the Bahrain workshop,” Jabari told the Jerusalem Post, adding that the workshop was “a big success and that’s why [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas is very worried.”

Reviving hopes

The Bahrain summit’s projection of a spirit of hope, from Palestinian and Israeli business leaders and their peers around the globe, provides a welcome response to the growing dismay among younger people in the region—and a counter to growing cynicism about the failures of Israeli and Palestinian political leadership. Weary of decades of violence, younger people are demanding change and are open to direct appeal from their Arab neighbors. The plans discussed in Bahrain offer younger people a path to become relevant and effective.

That’s especially true of the Palestinians, whose communal identity has been trapped for too long in the default position of “refugee.” A senior Saudi diplomat recently said Palestinian should stop thinking of themselves as victims, the better to empower themselves.

Mohamed Allabar of the United Arab Emirates, founder of Emmar Properties and one of the world’s biggest commercial builders, told the conference, “The younger generation will not let us continue trapped by our past. Palestinian people are our people. We get up every morning positive, and we want to do more…By generating jobs, income opportunities and filling gaps in delivering basic services, the private sector can help build momentum behind a fragile economy and instill hope in the people of the region.”

Conflict management experts, including Kurt Lewin and Herbert Kelman, have cautioned that the diversionary details of plan execution are less valuable than a shared vision of how life could be after a transformation. Before a political solution can be sold, all parties have to imagine a highly desirable scenario far better than the status quo.

Perhaps unschooled in this research, the New York Times in an editorial on June 28 dismissed the Bahrain initiative as “big-dream plans divorced from reality,” echoing the historically unfounded cliché that diplomatic solutions must precede economic plans. What the Times overlooks is the failed history of “political solution first,” which so far has usually meant there will be no solution. There are myriad self-interested advocacy groups, international bodies, and politicians, unfortunately, who read from the same script.

People who witnessed the spirit of Bahrain feel otherwise. As former Obama administration Mideast peace envoy David Makovsky said to me at the event, “My hope is that after Bahrain…we’re not just saying we’ve put forth a compelling vision of an endgame, but we’re starting down that road to make it more tangible in the short term. Israeli-Arab cooperation has been going on for years under the table, but the table seems to be levitating, because it’s very crowded under there.”

It was under that levitating table that Palestinian business leaders joined with Arab leaders from around the Gulf Coast, along with Israeli, African, European and American sponsors. The self-interest of these leaders has been put on alert as confusion in the region gives way to pragmatism. Let’s hope leaders embrace the opportunities for regional vitality with economic resources and investments across the boundaries of religions and ethnicities.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is Senior Associate Dean and Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice at the Yale School of Management. He served as a moderator of the Bahrain “Peace to Prosperity” economic summit.