蘋果公司正在考慮將相當(dāng)大一部分的iPhone生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)出中國(guó)，以規(guī)避特朗普政府可能對(duì)進(jìn)口商品加征的關(guān)稅。但一位分析師認(rèn)為，即使蘋果真會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移生產(chǎn)，規(guī)模也會(huì)很小。

《日經(jīng)亞洲評(píng)論》上周三報(bào)道稱，據(jù)匿名消息人士透露，蘋果已經(jīng)要求各大供應(yīng)商評(píng)估將30%的iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)出中國(guó)的可行性。報(bào)道稱，蘋果尚未設(shè)定最后期限，但擔(dān)心美國(guó)可能對(duì)價(jià)值3000億美元的中國(guó)制造商品加征關(guān)稅，從而拉升iPhone的制造成本。根據(jù)報(bào)道，蘋果也可能決定只將15%的iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)出中國(guó)。

“無(wú)論3000億美元加征關(guān)稅會(huì)不會(huì)走到最后一輪，蘋果都會(huì)跟上（生產(chǎn)地多元化）的大趨勢(shì)?！?一位未具名的消息人士向《日經(jīng)亞洲評(píng)論》透露，暗示即使特朗普政府不加征關(guān)稅，蘋果也有可能決定轉(zhuǎn)移。

但Wedbush的分析師丹·艾夫斯則有不同看法。在上周三發(fā)給投資者的報(bào)告中，艾夫斯質(zhì)疑了蘋果可能很快將30%的iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)出中國(guó)的說(shuō)法。他說(shuō)道，更有可能發(fā)生的情況是，蘋果短期內(nèi)只能將一小部分iPhone生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移出中國(guó)。

“我們認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是未來(lái)12到18個(gè)月里蘋果最多也只能將5%到7%的iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到印度。”艾夫斯向投資者說(shuō)道?！霸谖覀兛磥?lái)，將15%的iPhone生產(chǎn)從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地區(qū)（印度和越南是首選）至少需要兩三年時(shí)間?！?/p>

艾夫斯補(bǔ)充道，蘋果的供應(yīng)鏈非常復(fù)雜，而且對(duì)盈利十分重要，如果過(guò)于倉(cāng)促地將大量iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)出中國(guó)，可能導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，甚至?xí)粕O果的制造成本。

風(fēng)投公司556 Ventures的分析師比爾·何在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示，蘋果正在向負(fù)責(zé)實(shí)際生產(chǎn)的供應(yīng)商全面了解情況，尋找可行的做法。但他警告稱，說(shuō)到底蘋果還是得自己做最終的政治考量。

比爾·何表示，如果蘋果留在中國(guó)，“成本就會(huì)變高”，但如果離開中國(guó)這個(gè)關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)，蘋果則將面臨政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，還會(huì)激怒消費(fèi)者，可能被迫想辦法“克服成本上升”的壓力。

盡管壓力巨大，蘋果確已試著iPhone生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到其他國(guó)家。過(guò)去兩年，代工廠商緯創(chuàng)一直在印度生產(chǎn)低價(jià)iPhone SE機(jī)型。另?yè)?jù)印度媒體報(bào)道，在最大代工廠商富士康的幫助下，今年晚些時(shí)候蘋果將開始在印度生產(chǎn)iPhone X。

據(jù)《日經(jīng)亞洲評(píng)論》報(bào)道，蘋果可能將把部分iPhone生產(chǎn)從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到印度。消息人士補(bǔ)充稱，蘋果還可能考慮在墨西哥、印度尼西亞和越南等地生產(chǎn)iPhone。目前還不清楚蘋果如此選擇的原因，不過(guò)相關(guān)國(guó)家都有相對(duì)熟練的廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力。

“每個(gè)國(guó)家都各有優(yōu)點(diǎn)。而且不管在哪個(gè)國(guó)家，蘋果首要考慮的還是成本問(wèn)題?！北葼枴ず蜗颉敦?cái)富》雜志說(shuō)道?！按送?，需要考慮的也不只是勞動(dòng)力成本，還包括人才儲(chǔ)備和政治穩(wěn)定性，以及蘋果及其供應(yīng)商在當(dāng)?shù)亻L(zhǎng)期從事制造業(yè)務(wù)的益處?！?/p>

不過(guò)，艾夫斯還是不同意。他認(rèn)為，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)蘋果iPhone來(lái)說(shuō)太重要，智能手機(jī)生產(chǎn)方面不會(huì)做出重大轉(zhuǎn)變。喜不喜歡都好，蘋果可能別無(wú)選擇，只能留在中國(guó)。

“蘋果‘孤注一擲’地在中國(guó)旗艦工廠上押注，目前生產(chǎn)了全球絕大多數(shù)iPhone，對(duì)庫(kù)比蒂諾生態(tài)系統(tǒng)來(lái)說(shuō)重要性堪比人類的心肺?！卑蛩拐f(shuō)道。庫(kù)比蒂諾是蘋果公司的總部所在地。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：艾倫

審校：夏林

Apple is considering moving a substantial portion of its iPhone production from China to avoid any additional import tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration. But one analyst believes any shift in manufacturing would be much smaller.

On last Wednesday, the Nikkei Asian Review cited unidentified sources who said Apple has asked its top suppliers to evaluate moving up to 30% of iPhone production out of China. Apple hasn’t placed a deadline on the proposals, according to the report, but is concerned that a possible $300 billion U.S. tariff against China-made goods would drive iPhone manufacturing costs higher. Apple could decide to transfer as little as 15% of its iPhone production out of China, according to the report.

“With or without the final round of the $300 billion tariff, Apple is following the big trend [to diversify production],” one unidentified source told the Nikkei Asian Review, suggesting Apple could still decide to move production even if the tariffs aren’t levied.

But Wedbush analyst Dan Ives sees it differently. In a note to investors on last Wednesday, Ives cast doubt that Apple could move up to 30% of its iPhone production from China anytime soon. He said it’s more likely Apple would only be able to move a small portion of its China-based iPhone production in the near future.

“We believe realistically in a best case scenario Apple would be able to move 5%-7% of its iPhone production likely to India in the next 12 to 18 months,” Ives told investors. “Moving 15% of its iPhone production from China to other regions (India and Vietnam would be top candidates) would take at least 2-3 years in our opinion.”

Ives added that Apple’s supply chain is so sophisticated and important to the company’s bottom line that moving substantial iPhone production out of China too quickly could cause problems in the supply chain or even drive Apple’s manufacturing costs higher.

In an interview with Fortune, Bill Ho, an analyst at 556 Ventures, said Apple is trying to get a full picture from its suppliers, who actually operate the manufacturing facilities, to see what’s feasible. But he cautioned that Apple would ultimately need to make a final, political calculation.

“The costs would be higher,” if Apple stayed in China, Ho said, but the political risk of leaving China and angering consumers in that critical market, could be enough “to overcome those higher costs.”

That said, Apple has already dabbled in moving iPhone production to other countries. The company’s manufacturing contractor Wistron has been producing its low-cost iPhone SE in India for the last two years. Reports from India this year also said that Apple would start producing its iPhone X in India later this year with help from its biggest manufacturing partner Foxconn.

Some of the iPhone production Apple may move from China would be shifted to India, the Nikkei reported. The news outlet’s sources added that Apple may also consider producing iPhones in Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam, among other locations. It’s unclear why Apple would choose those countries, but they all have low-cost, but relatively skilled labor.

“Each has merits and certainly the costs in each country is a primary driver,” Ho told Fortune. “Additionally, it’s beyond lower labor costs but also talent pool, political stability, and incentives given to Apple and its suppliers to set up long-term manufacturing there.”

Still, Ives isn’t sold. He thinks China is too important to Apple’s iPhone for the company to make a major shift in its smartphone production. And like it or not, Apple may have no other choice but to stay in the country.

“Apple has ‘bet the farm’ on its flagship China production factory which produces the vast majority of iPhones globally and represents and the hearts and lungs of the Cupertino ecosystem,” said Ives, referring to the city in which Apple’s headquarters is located.