如果將中美關系比作潛在的公司并購，那么現在似乎是做空兩家公司股票的好機會。中美兩國在清潔能源產業領域相互影響則最令人擔憂。該領域涉及多個快速增長的產業，包括太陽能電池板、電池和電動汽車等產品。

中國將綠色產業列為戰略重點，成為清潔能源設備最大的出產國，清潔能源使用也已經全球領先。美國對清潔能源領域的興趣沒有那么持久，卻很想打垮中國這個“綠色巨人”。

這種做法損害的不只是地球，還有美國的底線。

美國政府和一些美國公司領導歡呼的貿易持久戰產生了反效果，原本挺戰派認為貿易戰有助于美國清潔能源產業，事實卻恰恰相反。反華熱潮還導致美國錯失新機遇，無法利用中國推動綠色產業的戰略為美國企業和消費者謀求福利。所謂機遇是指，中國正在采取一些鮮為人知卻可能意義深遠的措施推動綠色企業現代化，重新安排了大批效益低下的綠色補貼，并將可能數量龐大的資本轉向低碳方向。中國這兩項同步轉型為明智的美國企業提供了新財源——從無需組建合資企業就能夠在中國銷售電動汽車，到向 “一帶一路”基建投資計劃涉及的國家銷售綠色產品和服務等。

簡而言之，中國的清潔能源領域——不妨稱之為“綠色中國公司”——正在逐漸壯大。而且，正如我在布魯金斯學會發表的一篇新論文中指出，美國對“綠色中國公司”的態度也應該成熟起來。

事與愿違的小規模太陽能阻擊戰

跨越太平洋的貿易戰已經導致了意外損傷，主要在太陽能方面。五年多以前，美國對進口的中國太陽能電池板征收關稅，指責已經成為全球最大生產國的中國提供了不公平的補貼，并在全球市場上“傾銷”。美國希望開征關稅實質上促進美國太陽能電池板的生產，但未能如愿。全球范圍來看，美國在太陽能電池板生產方面一直表現不佳，就算征收了關稅，現在情況也沒有得到改善。非營利組織太陽能基金會公布的數據顯示，2017至2018年間美國太陽能領域就業總人數減少了3.2%，至24.2萬人左右，其中占總就業人數14%的太陽能制造業尤其糟糕，減少了將近9%。該基金會表示，關稅“抑制了行業增長”。

關稅削弱美國的競爭力，尤其是嚴重削弱了美國在多晶硅領域的競爭力，而多晶硅是美國相對領先的少數市場之一。多晶硅是制造太陽能電池板的關鍵原材料。美國對中國太陽能電池板征收關稅后，中國對美國多晶硅征收了關稅，導致美國多家大型多晶硅工廠緊縮開支。挪威REC Silicon公司就受到波及，該公司在華盛頓州摩西湖開設了多晶硅工廠。關稅導致REC在美國制造的產品在全球最大的市場中國失去了競爭力，先是縮減了生產規模，隨后又在5月初宣布，“除非進入中國多晶硅市場的渠道能恢復”，否則6月30日以前將關閉工廠。

雖然保護主義政策在諸多經濟領域產生了意想不到的后果，對清潔能源領域來說問題尤其嚴重。汽車和鋼鐵等其他產業最初都在地方發展，壯大之后才會全球化；但清潔能源產業在本世紀頭十年才成為重要力量，基本上從一開始就是全球性的。SunPower是美國最大的太陽能電池板制造商之一，其控股股東是法國道達爾石油公司；該公司的大部分業務在馬來西亞、菲律賓和墨西哥，在中國也制造電池板。通用汽車曾經表示，計劃到2023年銷售最多20款電動汽車，旗下電動版雪佛蘭Bolt車型的主要供應商是韓國LG化學公司，而且將中國當成關鍵市場。美國主要的清潔能源產品銷售商通常都有中國供應商、投資者或客戶，對各相關方來說，當美國政策充分利用“綠色中國公司”帶來的機遇而不是打壓時，益處顯然更大。

美國確實有理由擔心“綠色中國公司”崛起。中國憑借特有的經濟模式，以強大的本土優勢在全球開展綠色競賽。中國制定五年經濟計劃，為具有戰略意義的產業提供補貼，國有政策性銀行也會資助負有民族使命的行業。在中國經營的美國公司仍然面臨著實際障礙，包括知識產權保護參差不齊、政府偏袒中國公司，以及外國公司在中國市場上很難獨立經營等。對美國來說，與“綠色中國公司”合作仍將面臨政治雷區，但由于清潔能源行業已經全球化，美國公司也沒有什么更好的選擇，只能努力去做。

投身其中的大好時機

盡管貿易戰威脅甚囂塵上，但現在是美國與“綠色中國公司”進行接觸的最佳時機，因為中國正在推動綠色產業現代化，為美國資本在全球最大的綠色產業市場上創造了機會。

中國已經花費數百億美元補貼綠色產業。中國仍然是全球最大的煤炭消耗國和碳排放國，而且還催生了大批效率低下的清潔能源公司。兩方面中國均已承認，正因如此才對許多清潔能源補貼重新規劃，希望提高效率。

中國的電動汽車補貼是個很好的例子。某些車型電動版的價格僅為燃油車的一半。據彭博社新能源財經統計，去年中國純電動汽車銷量在全球總銷量中占到了60%。但中國領導人擔心相關補貼并不能實現理想的技術創新，因此正在調整補貼結構，引導市場改變模式以更有效地使用電力，提高單次充電續航里程，這種轉變可能對技術先進的美國企業很有利。去年，中國規定外國汽車制造商無需與中國企業合資就可以在華生產汽車，可能也是好消息。這也正是今年1月總部位于加州的特斯拉公司在上海開設大型電動汽車工廠的重要原因。

中國不僅在合理化補貼，也在努力引導大量公共和私人資本轉向低碳方向，這就是 “綠色金融”政策，在許多國家已經成為熱門詞匯。但如果中國兌現承諾，美國或英國正在采取的措施立刻相形見絀。中國拋出了不少“胡蘿卜”，比如降低“綠色債券”的利率等；同時也祭出了“大棒”，比如明年開始上市公司必須在年報中披露環境責任等。

即使中國的“綠色金融”政策遇到障礙，其實肯定會遇上，屆時美國和西方其他國家的會計師事務所到銀行等機構也會迎來好機會。西方公司開始在“主場”發展綠色金融業務，但中國是個大得多的潛在市場，西方銀行可以在中國市場上做承銷，會計師可以做審計，顧問可以提供咨詢服務。安永已經成為中國企業發行綠色債券環境合法性的最大審計機構之一，摩根大通和其他美國銀行也在推銷自家服務，幫助中國客戶發行綠色債券，目前主要在其他國家發行。

世界需要中國發展清潔能源產業，更好地保護地球。這點毫無疑問，但歷史經驗證明，在氣候問題上呼喚禮讓不是重點。真正重要到應該切實行動的是，越來越多的美國企業需要“綠色中國公司”才能成功，并獲得經濟回報。（財富中文網）

杰弗里·鮑爾是斯坦福大學斯蒂爾-泰勒能源政策和金融中心的駐校學者。本文改編自布魯金斯學會發表的論文《發展綠色中國公司：中國全力推進清潔能源為西方創造了經濟機遇》，鮑爾是該學會的非常駐高級研究員。

譯者：艾倫

審校：夏林

If the relationship between the U.S. and China were a potential corporate merger, now would seem a good time to short the stocks. Nowhere is the interplay more fraught than in the clean-energy sector, the universe of fast-growing industries built around products such as solar panels, batteries, and electric cars.

China, which has decreed green industries a strategic priority, has become the world’s largest producer of clean-energy equipment and of clean energy itself. The U.S. has shown less sustained interest in those arenas – but plenty of interest in trying to quash the Chinese green giant.

That approach is hurting not just the planet but America’s bottom line.

A long-running tariff war cheered by Washington and by some American chief executives is backfiring, harming the U.S. clean-energy industry that its boosters said it would help. The anti-China fever also is blinding the U.S. to emerging opportunities to leverage China’s green push for the benefit of American corporations and consumers. The opportunities are the outgrowth of a little-noticed but potentially far-reaching effort by China to modernize its green enterprise — to retool a raft of economically inefficient green subsidies and to shift potentially massive amounts of capital in a lower-carbon direction. Those twin Chinese transformations offer savvy U.S. players new ways to make money — from selling electric cars in China without having to ink joint ventures with Chinese firms to peddling green products and services to countries targeted in the massive Chinese foreign-infrastructure-investment program known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

In short, China’s clean-energy sector — call it Green China Inc. — is growing up. And, as I argue in a new paper published by the Brookings Institution, the U.S. approach to Green China Inc. should grow up too.

A solar-energy skirmish backfires

Consider the latest unintended casualty in one battle of the trans-Pacific trade war, a skirmish over solar. More than five years ago, the U.S. imposed tariffs on imported Chinese solar panels, accusing China, by far the world’s largest producer, of unfairly subsidizing them and of “dumping” them on the global market. The U.S. hoped the tariffs would materially boost American solar-panel manufacturing, but that hasn’t happened. The U.S. never was a globally significant solar-panel manufacturer, and, despite the tariffs, it still isn’t one today. Between 2017 and 2018, total U.S. solar employment fell 3.2%, to about 242,000 jobs, according to the Solar Foundation, a nonprofit group. Solar-manufacturing jobs, which accounted for 14% of that total, fared particularly poorly, shrinking by nearly 9%. The tariffs “restrained industry growth,” the solar group said.

The tariffs have eroded U.S. competitiveness especially significantly in one of the few global solar markets in which the country actually was a significant manufacturer: the production of polysilicon, a key raw material used to make solar panels. After the U.S. slapped tariffs on Chinese panels, China did so on U.S. polysilicon, prompting retrenchments at several big American polysilicon factories. The latest twist involves REC Silicon, a Norwegian firm that owns a polysilicon plant in Moses Lake, Wash. REC had already slashed production at the plant because the Chinese tariffs have made REC’s U.S. product uncompetitive in China, the top global market; the company announced in early May that it planned to mothball the plant by June 30 “unless access to Chinese polysilicon markets is restored.”

Though policies billed as protectionist have had unintended consequences in many parts of the economy, they’re particularly problematic in the clean-energy sector. Other industries, such as cars and steel, grew regionally and globalized only later in their development. But the clean-energy sector, which emerged as a significant force only in the first decade of this century, has been global essentially from the start. SunPower, one of the biggest U.S.-based solar-panel makers, has as its majority owner the French oil company Total; it does much of its manufacturing in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Mexico, and also makes panels in China. GM, which has said it plans to sell as many as 20 electric-car models by 2023, uses South Korea’s LG Chem as a major supplier of the electric Chevy Bolt and sees China as a crucial electric-car market. Major American sellers of clean-energy wares typically have Chinese suppliers, investors, or customers. They have more to gain from U.S. policies that seek to leverage Green China Inc. than from those that try to bury it.

To be sure, the U.S. has reasons to worry about Green China Inc.’s rise. With its command-and-control economy, China is running the global green race with a strong home-track advantage: five-year economic plans, subsidies for industries it deems strategic, and state-owned policy banks to help finance the national mission. And American firms doing business in China continue to face real obstacles: spotty intellectual-property protection, government preferences for Chinese firms, and enduring constraints on the ability of foreign firms to go it alone in the Chinese market. Engaging with Green China Inc. will remain a political minefield for the U.S. But given the globalism of the clean-energy sector, the American business community has no smart choice but to try.

A good time to engage

For all the trade-war saber-rattling, indeed, now is a particularly opportune moment for savvy U.S. engagement with Green China Inc., because China’s move to modernize its green push creates opportunities for U.S. capital in the world’s biggest green-industry market.

China has spent tens of billions of dollars subsidizing its green industries. Not only does China remain the world’s largest coal burner and carbon emitter, but it has created a raft of inefficient clean-energy firms. It acknowledges both, which is why it is restructuring many clean-energy subsidies in a bid to produce more bang for the buck.

A good example is China’s electric-car subsidies, which in the case of some models make buying an electric car half as costly as it otherwise would be. China last year accounted for 60% of all the pure-electric cars sold globally, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. But Chinese leaders are concerned the subsidies aren’t inducing enough technological innovation. So they’re retooling the subsidy structure to steer the market toward models that use power more efficiently and go farther on every charge. That shift could help technologically advanced U.S.-based players. So could China’s move, last year, to let foreign auto makers build cars in China without Chinese joint-venture partners. That was a big reason California-based Tesla broke ground in January on a massive electric-car factory in Shanghai.

Beyond rationalizing its subsidies, China is attempting to bend massive flows of public and private capital in a lower-carbon direction. This push, dubbed “green finance,” has become a buzz phrase in many countries. But if Beijing follows through on its pledges, it will dwarf anything underway in Washington or London. China is dangling carrots, such as lower interest rates for so-called green bonds, and sticks, such as a mandate that, by next year, publicly traded Chinese companies disclose environmental liabilities in yearly public reports.

Even if China’s green-finance effort hits snags, as it surely will, it will create real opportunities for U.S. and other Western companies, from accounting firms to banks. Western firms already are ginning up green-finance businesses on their home turf, but China presents a far bigger potential market for Western banks to underwrite and sell, accountants to audit, and consultants to advise. Ernst & Young already has become one of the biggest checkers of the environmental legitimacy of corporate green-bond issuances in China. JPMorgan Chase and other U.S. banks are peddling their services to help Chinese clients issue green bonds, so far focusing on issuances in other countries.

The world needs China to clean up its act for the good of the planet. That’s true enough, yet history suggests that calls for climate comity are largely beside the point. Far more relevant as a motive for significant action is that a growing array of U.S. players need Green China Inc. to succeed for the good of their financial returns.

Jeffrey Ball is scholar-in-residence at Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance. This essay is adapted from “Grow Green China Inc.: How China’s Epic Push for Cleaner Energy Creates Economic Opportunity for the West,” a paper published by the Brookings Institution, where Ball is a non-resident senior fellow.