不久前，摩根大通的首席執行官杰米·戴蒙發出了他的年度致股東信。他像往常一樣介紹了摩根大通的業務，并對金融監管和政府政策進行了批評。通讀這封95頁的信件后，一個與眾人相悖的主題脫穎而出，那就是和許多知名經濟學家及公司高管不同，戴蒙認為美國經濟在2019年或者不久之后不會出現衰退，而且他還覺得人們或許應該更樂觀一些。

戴蒙寫道：“當然，我們對當前的問題全神貫注，而它們往往會掩蓋我們在全球層面取得的進展。我們不應該忽視那些有利信號。”（他看到的令人鼓舞的跡象包括“強勁的美國經濟”、全球經濟繼續增長、貿易談判有可能“順利完成”，以及巴西等此前走勢乏力的市場轉頭向上。）

為了更清楚地表達自己的觀點，戴蒙指出了一個要點，那就是摩根大通考慮到最壞情況絕不意味著這種情況可能會出現。他強調說：“我們為衰退做準備，但我們并不是預測它的到來。”

他還附加了一條說明，即下次出現衰退的原因可能跟以前不同，這讓人們很難發現相關跡象。戴蒙寫道：“下一次的誘因或許就是負面因素累計的結果，也就是眾所周知的壓死駱駝的最后一根稻草。”

在這封信中，戴蒙用了五個理由來解釋為何自己不相信經濟衰退就在眼前。

收益率曲線倒掛沒關系

收益率曲線最近（的暫時）倒掛讓投資者在過去幾周擔心不已。這種現象是指美國短期國債收益率超過了期限較長的國債，或者說10年期國債。它表明投資者擔心今后的經濟不如現在，這在歷史上一直是衰退的先兆。

但這次戴蒙并不認同這樣的觀點。他寫道：“我不會去看收益率曲線，也不會認為其潛在倒掛發出的信號和以往相同。”戴蒙回顧了2008年金融危機爆發后美聯儲等機構采取的“極端”刺激措施。“全世界的央行和監管部門對市場干預的太多了，因此沒有辦法徹底弄清楚它們對收益率曲線的影響。”

人們也許低估了增長率

雖然經濟學家和投資者基本上都接受了經濟放緩的說法（他們認為危機后的增長有可能已經是強弩之末），但戴蒙認為他們可能過于悲觀。

他在信中寫道：“人們也許過于堅信增長將放緩以及通脹率將下滑。”他還指出，“就業和工資仍然在上升。”

他還說，畢竟，“經濟復蘇一直非常緩慢，而且受工資需求和供給有限影響，周期末段通脹率的‘正常’上升仍然有可能出現。目前還沒有看到這樣的局面，但我不會排除這種可能性。”意思就是，不要馬上就斷定晚周期增長不會爆發。

市場恐慌過度

在信中，戴蒙用了整整一個章節來剖析2018年年底的股市大跌，它讓標普500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數此前一年的漲幅迅速化為烏有。

雖然戴蒙確實警告說這樣的投資者恐慌情緒可能再次出現并讓市場進一步震蕩，但他的結論相當肯定——這是“過度反應”。

實際上，他重復了一長串積極的經濟指標——就業、工資和GDP繼續增長；金融市場“健康”；消費者和企業信心“很強”（盡管低于歷史最高點）；“消費者的資產負債以及信貸情況相當好”；以及美國各個城市的住宅供應都處于緊張狀態（“這最終會成為增長動力”）。

正因為如此，戴蒙提醒讀者在股市上操作時要有所保留，并且理性行動：“市場反應并不總是確切地體現實際經濟狀況，因此，決策者甚至企業都不應該對其反應過度。”

中國經濟無大礙

雖然中美貿易談判的每一絲風吹草動都牽動著公司和投資者的心，而且他們也無法確定兩國能否達成協議，但戴蒙并不感到緊張。他寫道：“我們相信最終形成公平貿易協議的可能性很高。”當然，他也指出，如果談不成，就會產生“嚴重的影響”，但沒有什么是中國對付不了的：“中國可以應付許多嚴峻局勢，因為和發達的民主國家不同，中國可以同時對經濟進行宏觀管理和微觀管理，并且非常迅速地采取行動。”

戴蒙還認為發展中國家已經變得更加穩定，從而降低了自身債務風險：“在新興市場，國家和企業都比以前成長了很多，也強大了很多。”

債務情況還不算太壞

戴蒙還認為，不斷上升的美國預算赤字及其引發衰退的潛力不足為慮：“美國的債務規模正在快速上升，但并未達到危險水平。”

他更擔心自己所說的“影子銀行”，或者說非銀行借貸的增長，特別是抵押貸款和學生貸款，以及風險較高的杠桿貸款。不過，戴蒙寫道：“我們認為這樣的規模和質量不會在金融系統中造成系統性問題。目前的水平依然可控。”

戴蒙的結論是：“如今的情況絕非2008年能比。”

為大家的利益著想，希望他是對的。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Jamie Dimon released his annual letter recently, offering his usual update on JPMorgan Chase’s activities along with a critique of financial regulation and government policy. Reading through the letter, which runs 95 printed pages, one contrarian theme stands out: Unlike many prominent economists and executives, Dimon doesn’t see a recession coming in 2019 or soon after—and he thinks people should probably be a bit more optimistic.

“Of course, we hyper-focus on today’s problems, and they often overshadow the progress we are making across the globe,” Dimon writes. “We should not overlook the positive signs.” (Among the encouraging signs he observes: a “strong U.S. economy,” continued global growth, the likelihood that trade negotiations will be “properly resolved” and the upturn in previously struggling markets such as Brazil.)

Making his view extra clear, Dimon draws an important distinction—that just because JPMorgan accounts for a worst-case scenario doesn’t mean it believes it’s likely to happen. “We are prepared for—though we are not predicting—a recession,” he emphasizes.

He does issue one caveat: That the next recession may not happen for the same reasons as recessions in the past, making it difficult to spot the signs. “Next time,” he writes, “the cause may be just the cumulative effect of negative factors—the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back.”

Still, here are five clues Dimon drops in his letter for why he doesn’t think a recession is imminent.

The Inverted Yield Curve Doesn’t Matter

For the past couple of weeks, investors have been fretting over the recent (and temporary) inversion of the yield curve, a phenomenon in which short-term Treasury bonds pay out higher interest rates than their longer-term counterparts, the 10-year Treasury. It’s a sign that investors are worried the economy will be worse in the future than it is today, and historically has been a consistent harbinger of recession.

But Dimon isn’t buying it this time. “I would not look at the yield curve and its potential inversion as giving the same signals as in the past,” he writes, citing “extreme” stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and others following the 2008 financial crisis. “There has simply been too much interference in the global markets by central banks and regulators to understand its full effect on the yield curve.”

People Might Be Underestimating Growth

Though economists and investors have largely resigned themselves to a slowdown in the economy (thinking that the post-crisis expansion has likely run its course), Dimon thinks they might be overly pessimistic.

“There may be too much certainty that growth will be slow and inflation subdued,” he writes in his letter, noting that “employment and wages continue to go up.”

After all, he continues, “This has been a very slow recovery, and it is possible that the ‘normal’ increase of inflation late in the cycle, due to wage demands and limited supply, can still happen. We don’t see it today, but I would not rule it out.” In other words, don’t count out a late-cycle growth spurt just yet.

Market Fears Are Overblown

Dimon spends an entire section of the letter dissecting the stock market plunge at the end of 2018, which rapidly erased all of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains for the year.

Though he does warn that such investor panic could return and bring more market volatility, Dimon comes to a fairly certain conclusion: It was an “overreaction.”

Indeed, he repeats a laundry list of positive economic indicators—continued growth of employment, wages, and GDP; “healthy” financial markets; “strong” consumer and business confidence (even if below all-time highs); the fact that “the consumer balance sheet and credit are in rather good shape;” and tight housing supply in cities across the U.S. (“which should eventually be a tailwind”).

That’s why Dimon reminds his readers to take stock moves with a grain of salt, and to act rationally: “Market reactions do not always accurately reflect the real economy, and, therefore, policymakers and even companies should not overreact to them.”

China Is Going to Be Just Fine

While companies and investors have been hanging on to every bit of news coming out of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, wondering whether the two sides can come to an agreement, Dimon isn’t sweating it. “We believe the odds are high that a fair trade deal will eventually be worked out,” he writes. Of course, if that fails, there will be “serious repercussions,” he notes—but nothing China can’t handle: “China can deal with many serious situations because, unlike developed democratic nations, it can both macromanage and micromanage its economy and move very fast.”

Dimon also thinks developing nations have become more stable, making their debt loads less of a risk: “The emerging markets, both countries and companies, are much bigger and stronger than they were in the past,” Dimon writes.

Debt Isn’t Too Bad Yet

Dimon also waved off fears about the growing U.S. budget deficit, and its potential to cause a recession: “America’s debt level is rapidly increasing but is not at the danger level.”

He’s more concerned about what he calls “shadow banking,” or an increase in lending by non-banks, particularly mortgages and student loans as well as higher-risk leveraged loans. Still, “we don’t think this is yet of the size or quality to cause systemic issues in the financial system,” Dimon writes. “At this level, it is still a manageable issue.”

The bottom line: “Today is nothing like 2008,” Dimon writes.

For everyone’s sake, let’s hope he’s right.