美國經濟今年是否會陷入衰退？這對于經濟學家和投資者來說，無疑是一個至關重要的大問題。

從4月10日公布的美聯儲的會議紀要來看，美國經濟今年不太可能會陷入衰退。美聯儲今年加息或減息的可能都不大——當然它也沒有完全排除匯率調整的可能性。

上周三，美聯儲公布了3月19日至20日會議的紀要。可以看出，會上有幾位參會者認為，根據下步的經濟數據和其他指標進展，聯邦基準利率的適合目標區間向上或向下浮動，都是有可能的。

在今年3月的會議上，經過投票，美聯儲官員們決定繼續保持利率穩定。此前，美聯儲的目標政策利率處于2.25%至2.5%之間，處于歷史上較低水平（而且這還是在2018年連續四次加息之后）。

這一切意味著什么？說明美國經濟依然是相對健康的，失業率和通脹都保持在較低水平。據路透社4月11日報道，美聯儲副主席理查德·克拉里達在國際金融研究所政策峰會的籌備講話上表示，到今年夏天，“本輪從10年前開始的經濟增長，將成為有紀錄以來最長的一次。”

Glenmede公司的投資策略師邁克爾·雷諾茲表示：“所有人都想知道經濟是否會陷入衰退，這是一個非常重要的問題。但是現在就預言未來12個月是否會出現衰退，還為時過早。”Glenmede是一家投資與財富管理公司，管理資產超過370億美元。

目前，美國股市仍有上漲空間，全球經濟也出現了小幅反彈。美國申報失業的人數也降低至1969年以來的最低水平。“1969年披頭士樂隊才剛火起來。”雷諾茲說。

美聯儲對美國經濟前景保持了樂觀展望。會議紀要指出：“與會人員基本認為，經濟活動將繼續擴張，就業市場將保持強勁，通脹率將繼續保持在接近2%的水平。”

不過與此同時，美聯儲也提醒大家應該保持謹慎。

會議指出，經濟的“重大不確定性因素”依然存在，如英國脫歐、歐洲和中國經濟放緩，以及特朗普繼續掀起貿易戰等。

會議紀要指出：“2019年剩余幾個季度里，以及在未來幾年里，美國經濟增長率可能會低于此前的預期。主要原因是全球經濟增長疲軟，以及財政刺激力度弱于預期。”

Glenmede公司的雷諾茲表示，美聯儲的會議紀要精神“與會后透露的信號基本一致。這表明了美聯儲的耐心，以及一種觀望的態度，他們不希望經濟過度擴張。”

不過，《華爾街日報》于4月11日表示，據該報本月進行的調查，經濟學家們已經穩步提高了對衰退風險的預期。今年4月，經濟學家預計未來12個月內出現衰退的可能性為26%，高于今年3月的25%和去年10月的18%。

雷諾茲表示：“有些風險因素正在上升，但還沒有達到需要我們擔心的程度。我們需要保持警惕，不過目前的風險還是比較均衡的。”

也許就像披頭士的那首歌里唱的一樣，該來的總會來的。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

It’s the million dollar question for economists and investors alike: Is the U.S. headed for a recession this year?

According to Federal Reserve minutes published on April 10, the answer is: It’s not around the corner. The central bank is likely to hold off on any rate hike or cut this year – though they did not rule out the possibility of a move.

“Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments,’’ according to minutes released last Wednesday of the Fed’s March 19-20 meeting.

At the March meeting, officials voted to hold rates steady. The target policy rate was left in a historically low range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. (This, after raising interest rates four times in 2018).

What does this all mean? The U.S. economy is still relatively healthy, with low unemployment and subdued inflation. The economic expansion, which began 10 years ago, “almost certainly will become the longest on record,’’ this summer, Federal Reserve vice chairman Richard Clarida said in prepared remarks for the Institute of International Finance policy summit, Reuters reported on April 11.

“That’s the million-dollar question. Everyone wants to know if there will be a recession,’’ said Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede, an investment and wealth management firm with more than $37 billion in assets under management. “Calling for a recession in the next 12 months is premature.’’

There’s still room for U.S. equities to grow, there’s a small rebound in global economies, and filings for jobless claims are the lowest since 1969–so long ago that “The Beatles Abbey Road album was on the charts,’’ Reynolds said.

The Fed’s outlook also remained positive. “Participants generally expected economic activity to continue to expand, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to remain near 2 percent,’’ according to the minutes.

The Fed, however, did strike a cautious note.

Policy makers noted “significant uncertainties” that include Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, slowdowns in Europe and China and President Trump’s continuing trade war.

“Economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2019 and in the subsequent couple of years would likely be a little lower, on balance, than they had previously forecast,” according to the minutes. “Reasons cited for these downward revisions included disappointing news on global growth and less of a boost from fiscal policy than had previously been anticipated.”

Glenmede’s Reynolds said the Fed minutes are “in line with the communication they provided after the meeting. It’s a more patient approach; more of a wait-and-see. They don’t want to get overextended.’’

Still, The Wall Street Journal said on April 11 in its survey this month that economists have steadily raised their assessment of the risk of recession. In April, economists saw a 26% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 25% in March and 18% in October, according to the Journal’s survey.

“Some risks have been rising, but not to the extent that we need to worry,’’ Reynolds said. “We need to have our ears perked up, but the risks are sort of balanced.’’

Or as the Beatles sang, Let It Be.