高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的首席經濟師揚·哈祖斯表示，全球經濟已經觸底反彈。

雖然增長仍然疲軟，但2月份高盛日前活動指標略高于向下修正的12月和1月數據。

哈祖斯和斯文·賈里·斯特恩在2月26日的一份報告中寫道：“一些綠芽正在萌發，表明后續增長將從此開始。”盡管如此，高盛對其2019年全球國內生產總值將增長3.5%的預測仍持謹慎立場。

關于市場，高盛：

仍然對風險資產保持樂觀，盡管隨著市場“對經濟衰退更樂觀”，市場優勢已經降低；預計債券收益率將上升；考慮到鴿派美聯儲以及全球經濟增長的預期，繼續看跌美元；未來2至3個月內適度看漲石油，但本年度剩余月份石油前景不容樂觀。按照哈祖斯的說法，由于金融環境收緊導致的阻力已經減緩，美國經濟回升的勢頭最為強勁。

高盛也看到了中國經濟增長出現轉機的初步跡象。這也符合彭博早期活動指標反映的信息：

仍有一些高管持謹慎態度。摩根大通公司（JPMorgan Chase＆Co.）的首席執行官杰米·戴蒙在銀行面對投資者的年度發布會中承認，經濟中可能出現的阻力增多，才使其公司創下了創紀錄的利潤。

“我們為衰退做好了準備，”戴蒙說。“我們不是預測會出現衰退。我們只是說，我們非常清楚面臨的風險。”

高盛認為，各大地區中，歐洲看起來最弱，“意大利經濟衰退，德國接近衰退，大多數其他經濟體僅維持趨勢性增長。”該報告稱。高盛將歐洲央行首次加息的預期從2019年末推遲至2020年中。

至于美聯儲，高盛表示，美聯儲在未來6至9個月有所舉措的可能性下降，年底前加息需要經濟增長和核心通脹雙雙反彈。高盛預計，3月會議上會宣布美聯儲將在今年晚些時候（可能在9月）結束縮表。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.

“Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here,” Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for 2019 “is probably still on the downside.”

On markets, Goldman:

remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become “more sanguine on recession” expects bond yields to rise maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year’The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.

Goldman also sees tentative signs of a turnaround in Chinese growth. That’s in line with Bloomberg’s snapshot of early indicators of activity:

Some executives remain cautious. Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., used the bank’s annual presentation to investors to acknowledge a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year.

“We are prepared for a recession,” Dimon said. “We’re not predicting a recession. We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”

Goldman reckons Europe looks like the weakest major region, “with Italy in recession, Germany close to it, and most other economies growing at only about a trend pace,” according to the note. Goldman has pushed back its expectations for the first ECB hike from late-2019 to mid-2020.

As for the Fed, Goldman says the prospects for moves in the next 6 to 9 months have fallen and an increase toward the end of the year would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation. It expects an announcement at the March meeting that the Fed will end balance sheet runoff later this year, probably in September.