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英國脫歐,這個國家居然成了最大贏家

英國脫歐,這個國家居然成了最大贏家

Richard Morgan 2019-03-03
英國脫歐麻煩不斷,卻讓這個國家成為了企業的新寵。

都柏林城堡1204年就成為愛爾蘭的權力中心,在其中一間遠離塵囂的私人會議室里,由助手們陪同的愛爾蘭副總理西蒙·科文尼表示,愛爾蘭的經濟地位毫無疑問,無論英國脫歐與否。他的語調帶著節制,和他使用的飽含激情的詞匯形成了明顯反差。科文尼說:“愛爾蘭經濟比以往任何時候都更有持續性。”此外,他甚至表示:“我們愿意成為世界上最開放的經濟。或許僅次于新加坡。”

他會知道結果的。目前科文尼的職務是愛爾蘭副總理、外交部長兼英國脫歐事務首席談判代表。他說愛爾蘭處于“擴張模式”,而且他本人正在監督愛爾蘭駐外大使館和領事館的大規模修建工作,這正是英國脫歐讓國際社會意識到“過度依賴英國”后作出的反應。科文尼還說:“我們推進這些工作的速度也是愛爾蘭獨立以來未曾出現過的。”

Cloistered with his aides in a private meeting room of Dublin Castle, the capital’s seat of political power since 1204, Tánaiste Simon Coveney, with a measured tone that betrays the enthusiasm of his words, argues that there’s nothing precarious about Ireland’s economic position, Brexit or otherwise. “The Irish economy is now more sustainable than it’s ever been,” he says. More than that, even: “We like to see ourselves as the most open economy in the world. Maybe [second] after Singapore.”

He would know. Coveney—who is at once Ireland’s deputy prime minister, its minister of foreign affairs, and its chief negotiator in Brexit matters—says Ireland is in “expansion mode.” He is overseeing a massive buildup of Irish embassies and consulates that he calls a Brexit-aware response to the global community’s “overreliance on the U.K.,” adding: “We’re doing it at a pace that hasn’t happened since independence.”

愛爾蘭政府首腦利奧·瓦拉德卡是印度-愛爾蘭后裔,同性戀。在這個1993年將同性戀合法化的國家,瓦拉德卡代表著一種更為現實而且更有信心的形象。圖片來源:Simon Dawson — Bloomberg via Getty Images

目前的使領館工程包括愛爾蘭設在安曼、波哥大、基輔、馬尼拉、蒙羅維亞、拉巴特、圣地亞哥和惠靈頓的大使館,設在卡迪夫、法蘭克福、齋浦爾、洛杉磯、孟買、溫哥華的領事館以及東京的泛文化中心,名為愛爾蘭之家。2022年就是愛爾蘭獨立100周年,這里有一種宣示其獨立性的意味。

亞洲是西方經濟發展的靈丹妙藥,而愛爾蘭對亞洲的“追求”并非沒有回報。去年11月,小米和香港電信運營商Three宣布小米將在都柏林開店,隨即推出了一系列新產品。去年,同樣在都柏林設有辦事機構的華為收購了50個鎮的寬帶光纖,這是華為和沃達豐合作協議的一部分。去年6月,日本軟銀披露了作為全球原型在都柏林試運行其“智慧城市”平臺的計劃。

科文尼對《財富》雜志表示:“這些都和愛爾蘭新的信心有關。你可以看到愛爾蘭實際上是在循著自己的腳步投資。”當然是前進的最佳足跡,但他的積極支持也帶來了問題,那就是世界需要一個歐洲的新加坡嗎?甚至是想要一個嗎?

愛爾蘭政府官員不喜歡人們因為12.5%的企業稅率而將愛爾蘭稱為避稅天堂,而且往往會回應說匈牙利的稅率只有9%,是歐盟最低水平(英國目前稅率為19%,2020年將降至17%。美國獨立稅收政策非營利組織Tax Foundation的數據表明,歐盟國家的平均企業稅率為21.68%)。值得稱道的是,到愛爾蘭工作的人帶來的效益要超過開曼群島的郵政信箱。但其整體作用是讓愛爾蘭變得更像歐洲的特拉華州,而不是新加坡。過多的公司總部讓這個問題變了味道。

倫敦政治經濟學院的經濟學家斯瓦蒂·迪格拉認為:“公司搬到都柏林并不會把都柏林變成倫敦。向巴黎、慕尼黑以及其他任何地方的分流都意味著沒有哪個城市能繼承倫敦曾經擁有的綜合實力。”

“你也許會得到較大的一塊蛋糕,但蛋糕本身會變小。在這方面沒有贏家。倫敦正在滑坡,但不會再出現另一個倫敦。”

The push so far includes Irish embassies in Amman, Bogotá, Kiev, Manila, Monrovia, Rabat, Santiago, and Wellington, as well as consulates in Cardiff, Frankfurt, Jaipur, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Vancouver, and a pan-cultural hub in Tokyo called Ireland House. Buoyed by the imminent centennial of its nationhood, in 2022, there is a sense that Ireland is flexing its independence.

Irish courtship of Asia, that Western cure-all for economic development, has not gone unrequited. In November, Chinese electronics company Xiaomi partnered with Hong Kong telecom provider Three to launch a rash of new products following an announcement that Xiaomi would set up shop in Dublin. Last year Huawei, which also has Dublin offices, brought broadband optical fiber to 50 Irish towns as part of a contracted partnership with Vodafone. In June, Japan’s SoftBank revealed plans to pilot its “smart city” platform in Dublin as a global prototype.

“It’s all linked to a new confidence in Ireland,” Coveney tells Fortune. “You’re seeing Ireland essentially investing in a footprint.” The best foot forward, surely, yet his boosterism raises questions: Does the world need a European Singapore? Or even want one?

Irish government officials dislike when the country is called a tax haven for its 12.5% corporate tax rate and often respond by pointing to Hungary’s 9% rate, the lowest in the EU. (Britain’s is 19% and will drop to 17% in 2020. The average among EU countries is 21.68%, according to the Tax Foundation.) To Ireland’s credit, the workers coming to the country offer more heft than a post office box in the Cayman Islands. But the overall effect has made Ireland more like Europe’s Delaware than its Singapore. Too many headquarters spoil the broth.

“Moving companies to Dublin does not turn Dublin into London,” says Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “The dispersal—to Paris, Munich, wherever—means that nobody will inherit the conglomerate force that London had.

You might get a bigger slice of pie, but the pie itself is getting smaller. There are no winners here. London is diminishing, but nowhere is becoming the next London.”

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