這對愛爾蘭總理利奧·瓦拉德卡來說本該是個好年份。今年1月，愛爾蘭政府宣布2007年以來首次實現財政盈余。2008年全球金融危機對愛爾蘭的打擊非常大，讓愛爾蘭政府受制于國際貨幣基金組織的情況一直延續到了2013年。重大“求生”舉措，包括公務員最多降薪20%，凍結所有公共部門招聘和升遷，取得了回報。此前的狀況一直令人不安。“凱爾特之虎”泡沫破裂以及與之相伴的破產、裁員和喪失抵押品贖回權讓人記憶猶新。但愛爾蘭政府重新實現了盈余。而此前，愛爾蘭總理曾經登臺很嚴肅的對媒體說：“沒人會挨餓?！薄蠹铱梢韵胂笠幌履欠N措顏無地的情形。在瓦拉德卡公布預算計劃前，食品短缺恐慌已經籠罩了愛爾蘭，肇事元兇是其最大貿易伙伴，也就是英國的所謂“硬脫歐”（愛爾蘭約一半的食品和牲畜進口來自于英國）。愛爾蘭政府在其頒布的意外事件行動方案中警告說“宏觀經濟、貿易和各個行業將受到嚴重影響”。大量令人焦慮的新聞頭條接踵而至。

這就是愛爾蘭在2019年面臨的悖論。它已經連續四年成為歐盟增長最快的經濟體，GDP從2012年的2260億美元增至2017年3340億美元，總量超過丹麥，人均GDP約為法國或西班牙的兩倍。然而，從2015年起，愛爾蘭一直都沉浸在緊張氣氛中。當年愛爾蘭GDP猛增26%，部分原因是包括“稅務倒置”在內的重新分類，稅務倒置是指美國公司將總部遷至海外以尋求更低的企業稅負。愛爾蘭的經濟看來就像是薛定諤的貓，既繁榮又虛假。沒有人敢打開蓋子來探究其經濟增長究竟是源于實際，還是耍弄財務手腕的結果。

接下來英國脫歐來了。2016年，這個唯一和愛爾蘭有陸上邊界的國家，前殖民者通過公投決定脫離歐盟及其17.3萬億美元的共同市場。這場由堪堪過半票數（51.9%）引發的脫歐行動宛如一場莎士比亞悲劇，充滿了虛榮和自大，塑造它的則是倫敦讓人略感滑稽的混亂政治。從1886年英國首相威廉·格萊斯頓提出愛爾蘭自治法案至今，英國當局還不曾因為黨內背叛、議會否決和全面爭吵陷入如此分崩離析的境地。在一個多世紀后，堅定沉著的英國人陷入了困惑和苦難中，進而彰顯了勇敢愛爾蘭人的冷靜和清晰。據倫敦市自行估算，這讓愛爾蘭獲得了吸引力，奪去了逾1.2萬個本屬于英國的就業機會。

劍橋大學歐洲法律教授、《Brexit Time》一書作者肯尼思·阿姆斯特朗說：“英國脫歐就像進行一次前所未有的比較。它放出了英國的惡魔，卻讓愛爾蘭成了天使。愛爾蘭顯得很現代，就像英國當局得過且過的體系讓英國顯得像維多利亞時代的遺跡一樣?！?/p>

換句話說，在英國內耗之際，擁有年輕勞動力、低稅率而且說著流利英語的愛爾蘭已經作勢要猛撲上來。

It was supposed to be a good year for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. In January, for the first time since 2007, the Irish goernment—which was so savaged by the global financial crisis of 2008 that it was under the International Monetary Fund’s thumb until 2013—announced a budget surplus. Drastic survival tactics had paid off, including cutting public-sector salaries by as much as 20% and freezing all public-sector hiring and promotions. It had been uncomfortable. The collapse of the Celtic Tiger bubble—with its bankruptcies, layoffs, and foreclosures—was anything but a distant memory. But Ireland was back in the black. Imagine the indignity, then, for its top minister to step up to a lectern and tell the press four grim words: “Nobody will go hungry.” A panic over food shortages had gripped the country ahead of Varadkar’s budget announcement, sparked by the specter of a so-called “hard Brexit” by its top trade partner, the United Kingdom. (About half of Ireland’s food and live-animal imports come from the U.K.) The Irish government published a contingency action plan warning of “severe macroeconomic, trade, and sectoral impacts.” A flurry of tense news headlines followed.

Such is the paradox of Ireland in 2019. It has the fastest-growing economy in the European Union for the fourth-straight year with a gross domestic product that shot up from $226 billion in 2012 to $334 billion in 2017, a total that surpasses the GDP of Denmark and is roughly double the per capita count of France or Spain. Yet an uneasiness has permeated since 2015. That was the year the Irish GDP ballooned by 26%, inflated in part by a reclassification that included “inversions,” in which U.S. companies move their headquarters overseas in pursuit of lower corporate taxes. Ireland, it seemed, was Schr?dinger’s economy: both flourishing and feigning. Nobody dares lift the lid to find out if the gains are rooted in reality or financial sleight of hand.

Then came Brexit. In 2016, Ireland’s only neighbor by land and erstwhile colonizer voted to walk out on the EU and its $17.3 trillion common market. The move to secede, called Brexit and triggered by a slim majority (51.9%) in a national referendum, has unfolded as a Shakespearean tragedy of reckless vanity and hubris, shaped by quasi-comical political chaos in London. The British powers have not been as riven by intraparty defections, parliamentary defeats, and general acrimony since 1886, when then–Prime Minister William Gladstone announced his support for Irish Home Rule. More than a century later, stiff-upper-lip Britain’s tumble into confusion and calamity has heightened plucky Ireland’s reputation for calm and clarity and turned it into an attractive destination for upwards of 12,000 once-British jobs, according to the City of London’s own estimates.

“Brexit is creating a contrast that hasn’t existed before,” says Kenneth Armstrong, a professor of European law at the University of Cambridge and author of Brexit Time. “It has unleashed Britain’s demons and given Ireland a halo. Ireland seems modern just as Westminster’s system of muddling through makes Britain seem like a Victorian relic.”

In other words, as Britain self-combusts, Ireland—with its young workforce, low taxes, and English fluency—is poised to pounce.