世界經濟論壇年會于上周在瑞士達沃斯召開。（我今年沒有參加，因為辦公室還有很多工作要做。）像去年一樣，人工智能是達沃斯論壇2019年日程上最重要的議題之一。AI無疑是席卷全球商界的重要科技趨勢，同樣也被大肆炒作。

畢竟，技術和商業界有一條亙古不變的法則：一旦出現了任何復雜的發展變化，都會有人自封為該領域的傳教士，試圖嚇唬其他一知半解的人，讓他們購買自己的商品和服務。今年達沃斯論壇上有大量專門討論該話題的小組，這是上述法則的必然結果。正如我在本期《財富》雜志的另外一篇文章中所述，今年至少有11個會議談到了人工智能。但這卻未必會帶來啟發。

人工智能不是騙局。能賺錢的創新必然會引發炒作。正如我的文章中各位專家解釋的那樣，關鍵是了解AI可以做什么，不能做什么。它們能做設計師訓練它們學習的離散型任務，不能做任何需要辨識細微差別、需要利用同情心或智慧等人類品質的事情。

***

我通常會在達沃斯論壇舉辦前打電話給政治情報咨詢公司歐亞集團（Eurasia Group）的老板伊恩·布雷默，他也沒有參加今年的會議。布雷默經常和世界各地的政客來往，向企業客戶提供與政府打交道的建議。以下是他從遠方圍觀達沃斯論壇的一些主題：

***

*歐洲的弱點。因為離得近，歐洲的大量政商界領袖出席了達沃斯，布雷默說：“他們也是在勉為其難，盡管眼下他們也提不出什么建設性的看法。”英國脫歐亂局、法國馬克龍的困境、德國被迫結束的默克爾時代、歐洲各地的各種強人——沒有一件好事。布雷默稱，唐納德·特朗普盡管十分努力，卻“無法破壞美國的制度”，與之相比，“歐洲的領導者們試圖破壞制度”——而且成功了。

*受到脅迫的科技巨頭。“很明顯，盡管科技公司拼盡全力，說‘我們將建立一個新的世界秩序，我們已經有解決方案’，他們卻受到各方打壓。”布雷默說。“中國人提出了新方案，卻無處投資。這些科技公司受到來自美國公眾和歐洲監管機構的阻力，甚至彼此間也相互阻撓。”蘋果公司抨擊谷歌和Facebook，微軟則在討論隱私問題時狡猾地建議對其中極窄的一部分進行監管——面部識別。

*上層人士的壓力（更大）。達沃斯會議有時是不同場景的荒誕并存，一邊是對如何修復世界進行高尚的長篇大論，另外一邊，公司大佬在荒唐的派對上花的錢足夠國內好些個營地里無家可歸的人們花好幾年，俄羅斯寡頭們在鎮外別墅里舉辦種種墮落放蕩的活動。從根本上說，商人們來達沃斯是為了做生意，只有他們堅持假裝自己另有所求時才會出現問題。“問題不是全球化被打破了。”布雷默說。“不是的。而是人們看到精英階層利用開放的國界發家致富。盡管克勞斯·施瓦布（世界經濟論壇的鐵腕創始人）希望在方框里打上勾，表明他已經解決了這個問題，但事實是人們真正想談的是他們的股東、他們的商業模式，諸如此類。他們對研究自己的商業模式會如何被打破、威脅他們的是什么并不真的感興趣。”

關于布雷默的最后一點，從2018年12月初我就開始隨身攜帶戴維·萊昂哈特的專欄“如果CEO們關心美國”（線上標題：“美國資本主義失靈了”）。對于達沃斯的大佬而言，他們在寒冷的瑞士小鎮乘坐開足暖氣的轎車從一個活動前往下一個活動時，這是很不錯的短篇讀物。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

The World Economic Forum annual meeting convened last week in Davos, Switzerland. (I’m skipping this year; there’s a lot to be done in the office.) One of the biggest topics on the 2019 agenda, as it was last year, is artificial intelligence. That’s because A.I. is at once an irrefutably important technological trend sweeping the business world and the subject of a commensurate amount of hype.

After all, an immutable law of technology and business is that any complicated development brings with it self-proclaimed priests of said subject intent on frightening the less-informed into buying their goods and services. A corollary to this law is that the program in Davos will include oodles of panels devoted to the subject. As I note in this article from the current issue of Fortune, no fewer than 11 sessions reference A.I. this year. Enlightenment isn’t promised to follow.

A.I. is no hoax. Hype is the natural byproduct of innovations that can make people money. The point, as various experts explain in my article, is to understand what A.I. can do—discrete tasks its designers have trained it to learn to do—and what it can’t, just about anything that requires the human qualities of nuance, empathy, or wisdom.

***

Ahead of Davos, I typically call Ian Bremmer, boss of political-intelligence consultancy Eurasia Group, who’s also sitting out this year’s proceedings. Bremmer travels the world checking in on politicos and advising corporate clients on how to deal with governments. Here are a few of the themes he’s watching it from afar:

***

* Europe’s weakness. Given their proximity, European political and business leaders show up in force at Davos, Bremmer notes, “hitting above their weight, even though they have very little constructive to say right now.” The Brexit mess, Macron’s woes in France, the forced end of the Merkel era in Germany, various strongmen around Europe’s edges—none of it is good. Contrasted with the United States, where Bremmer notes Donald Trump “can’t undo American institutions,” try as he may, “in Europe you have leaders trying to undo institutions”—and succeeding.

* Big Tech in duress. “It is very clear that for all the efforts of the tech companies to say ‘We’re going to build a new world order where we’ve got the solutions,’ they are getting hit from all sides,” says Bremmer. “The Chinese are building alternatives they can’t invest in. And they’re getting pushback from the U.S. public, from European regulators, even from each other,” as Apple bashes Google and Facebook while Microsoft slyly recommends regulation of a narrow sliver of the privacy debate, facial recognition.

* (More) pressure on elites. The Davos meeting is a sometimes surreal juxtaposition of high-minded bloviating about repairing the world even while corporate honchos spend enough on over-the-top parties to feed multiple homeless encampments back home for years and Russian oligarchs host debauched after-hours affairs in the villas outside of town. At root, the businesspeople are in Davos to do business, which is only problematic to the extent they insist on pretending otherwise. “It’s not that globalization is broken,” says Bremmer. “It’s not. It’s the perception that elites have used open borders to enrich themselves. As much as Klaus [Schwab, the iron-fisted WEF founder] wants to check the box and show he has addressed it, the fact is that what people really want to talk about are their shareholders, their business models, etcetera. They’re not really interested in trying to explore how their biz models may be broken and what’s threatening them.”

To Bremmer’s final point, I’ve been carrying around with me for a bit now this David Leonhardt column from early December 2018, “When C.E.O.s Care About America.” (The online headline: “American Capitalism Isn’t Working.”) It’d be a good short read for the pooh-bahs in Davos to read while being shuttled in their heated sedans from one event to the next in the frigid Swiss town.