全球化已死？

半個多世紀以來，制造業創建了全球供應鏈，在成本（工資）最低的地方采購商品，銷往需求最高的地方。這種趨勢促進了全球經濟增長，推動許多發展中國家（尤其是中國）崛起，同時實現了史上最大規模的人口脫貧。（但也引發了發達國家的政治抵制。）

然而，這種趨勢在過去十年已經出現逆轉。麥肯錫全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）今天早上發布的一項新研究——本刊“CEO日報”（CEO Daily）欄目得以先睹為快——表明，跨境貿易產品占全球產品總量的比率急劇下降，從2007年的28.1％跌至2017年的22.5％。部分原因是政治上對貿易的抵制，但也說明中國和其他發展中國家消費需求的增長（他們購買本國商品的份額在增多）和國內供應鏈的改善。

但問題在于：雖然貨物貿易占產品總量的份額正在下降，但服務貿易卻在快速上升。根據國家統計數據，服務僅占各類貿易的23％。但麥肯錫的報告表明，這些數字剔除了服務貿易中非常重要的一些領域，如果包括在內，服務貿易占比將達到一半。

“全球化并沒有消亡；不過是變了，”麥肯錫合伙人、該研究所的負責人蘇珊·隆德（Susan Lund）表示。

這將對全球經濟產生重要影響。其中包括：

——對外貿易將不再依靠低工資推動增長。該報告稱，僅有不到兩成的貿易是基于勞動力套利。

——知識型貿易正在快速發展。對研發、強勢品牌、知識產權等無形資本的投資在貿易中的占比翻了一番，從5.5％增加到13.1％。

這些趨勢對公共政策的影響十分明顯。對實物貿易的限制正在打響最后一戰。試圖限制知識產權和無形資產的貿易是白費心機。下一輪全球化進程中，擁有最優秀人才而非最低工資的國家將占據上風。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

Is globalization dead?

For more than half a century, manufacturers created global supply chains that sourced goods wherever costs (wages) were lowest and sold them wherever demand was greatest. The trend drove world growth, powered the rise of many developing countries (particularly China), and resulted in the largest alleviation of poverty in world history. (It also helped fuel a political backlash in developed countries.)

In the last decade, however, that trend has reversed. A new study out this morning from the McKinsey Global Institute—CEO Daily got an early look—finds the share of goods produced around the world that is traded across borders has fallen sharply, from 28.1% in 2007 to 22.5% in 2017. That may partly reflect the political backlash against trade. But it also reflects rising consumer demand in China and other developing countries (they are buying more of their own goods), as well as improved domestic supply chains in those countries.

But here’s the rub: While trade in goods is declining as a share of output, trade in services is soaring. National statistics only attribute about 23% of all trade to services. But the McKinsey report says those numbers exclude some very significant aspects of services trade which, if included, would make it half of all trade.

“Globalization isn’t dead; it has just changed,” says Susan Lund, a partner at McKinsey and leader of the institute.

That has some important implications for the global economy. Among them:

— Foreign trade is no longer being driven by the search for low wages. Less than 20% of trade is based on labor-cost arbitrage, the report says.

— Knowledge-based trade is soaring. Investment in intangible assets—R&D, strong brands, intellectual property—has doubled as a share of trade, from 5.5% to 13.1%.

The implications for public policy are clear. Restricting trade in physical goods is fighting the last war. And attempting to restrict trade in intellectual property and intangibles is a fool’s errand. In the next round of globalization, it will be countries with the best talent, not those with the lowest wages, that will have the upper hand.