今年1月2日，蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克寫信給投資者，將一季度收入指標由890億至930億美元調降至840億美元。我認為這并不是最大的問題，已經有人指出從調降指標可以看出蘋果內部遇到了大麻煩。

庫克承認iPhone業務走軟。他還特別提到主要原因是中國市場。庫克表示，蘋果收入下降全由中國市場導致，中國經濟較預期疲軟和中美貿易戰都讓情況更復雜。

事實上，近年來蘋果在中國市場犯了不少大錯。盡管上一季度市場有些大動蕩，但蘋果在中國的窘況與特朗普發動的貿易戰關系沒那么大。

如果對過往比較留心就會發現，蘋果在中國的問題不是剛剛開始。銷售不景氣已經持續一段時間了。

收入

2014年四季度，或2015年第一個財務季度，蘋果在中國的收入曾達到161億美元，占全球收入的22%。一年前，蘋果在中國市場的收入為180億美元，約占全球收入的20%。到了第四個財務季度，或者說2018年三季度，中國市場收入為114億美元，約占全球收入的18%。

安全

與此同時，蘋果跟中國政府打交道一直不太順。其實在某些方面蘋果已經讓步，滿足了政府要求，一些用戶很憤怒，也導致蘋果在國外出現問題。

2017年蘋果決定從中國地區應用商店里刪除VPN應用程序，就是最好的例子。 在中國很多人用VPN繞開防火墻。蘋果的決定在中國和其他很多地方都受到廣泛批評。有些人認為此舉是蘋果犧牲用戶群以維持與中國政府的關系。

知識產權

蘋果在中國的環境也比想象中危險。去年科技媒體The Verge列出很多例子證明，中國到處都有蘋果的仿制品。中國公司制造的手機幾乎跟iPhone一模一樣，軟件功能也差不多。但價格比iPhone便宜得多，還經常能享受中國政府和法院的袒護。結果是，大批中國消費者轉而購買國產手機，蘋果只能接受事實繼續想辦法。

價格標簽

更重要的是，蘋果似乎毫不理會價格方面的抱怨。不管樂不樂意買，現在iPhone就是太貴。隨著中國經濟下滑，中產階級口袋中的錢減少，蘋果卻將iPhone定如此高價，吸引力大不如前。

去年蘋果推出了iPhone XS、iPhone XS Max和iPhone XR時，比較簡單的策略是保留價格更低的iPhone SE。但蘋果沒有這么做。全球各地的人們只得多花幾百美元買新款iPhone，要么繼續使用現有的產品。iPhone SE售價350美元，比較便宜也比較吸引人。比較起來，iPhone XS Max售價最低為1,099美元，絕對談不上價廉物美。

列舉這么多并不是說，蘋果在中國沒有受到貿易和經濟衰退的影響。只想說明，蘋果在中國遇到的問題已存在多年，而且很多都是自找的。（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

On January 2, Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote a letter to investors revising downward the company’s revenue guidance for its first fiscal quarter from an expected range of $89 billion to $93 billion to $84 billion now. While I’m not one to believe it’s the biggest of problems, there are some who say it’s the latest sign of real trouble inside Apple.

For his part, Cook acknowledged softness in the iPhone division. And he specifically said that China was largely to blame. More than 100% of Apple’s revenue decline happened in China, Cook said, and a combination of a weaker-than-expected Chinese economy and trade problems between China and the U.S. combined to create issues.

The fact, however, is that Apple has made some big mistakes in China in recent years. And although some major market factors arose last quarter, much of what’s happening to Apple in China goes beyond Donald Trump’s trade war.

If you’re keeping score, Apple’s China problems didn’t just begin. In fact, stagnation has been a problem for some time now.

Revenue

Back in the fourth quarter of 2014, or Apple’s first fiscal quarter in 2015, China revenue stood at $16.1 billion and accounted for 22% of the company’s global revenue. A year ago, Apple’s China revenue was $18 billion, or about 20% of its revenue. During Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter, which includes the third quarter of 2018, China revenue was $11.4 billion, or about 18% of its global revenue.

Security

Meanwhile, the Chinese government has been difficult for Apple to deal with. And in some cases, Apple has capitulated to its demands, angering customers and causing the company problems abroad.

Look no further than Apple’s decision in 2017 to remove VPN applications from its Chinese App Store as a prime example of that. VPNs are widely used in China to circumvent the company’s Great Firewall. Apple’s decision was widely criticized both inside China and elsewhere. And some viewed it as a decision to maintain relations with the Chinese government to the detriment of its customer base.

Intellectual Property

In China, Apple also finds itself in a far more dangerous environment than it might like. As a feature in The Verge illustrated last year, Apple copycats are everywhere in China. Chinese companies build devices that are near-clones to the iPhone and come with software that works in much the same way. But those devices are also much cheaper than the iPhones and often get sympathy from the Chinese government and courts. Along the way, Chinese consumers buy them in droves and Apple is left to accept that and move on.

Price Tags

But more than anything, Apple appears to be tone deaf on price. Like it or not, the iPhone is really expensive. And in China, where the economy is in trouble and the middle class is finding less cash to spend, the company’s decision to price its iPhones so high makes its handsets far less appealing.

The simplest move for Apple last year when it unveiled its iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and iPhone XR would have been to keep its cheap, budget-friendly iPhone SE on store shelves. It didn’t. And people around the globe were forced to either spend hundreds of dollars more on a new iPhone or stick with what they have now. At $350, the iPhone SE was a bargain. At $1,099 to start, the iPhone XS Max is anything but a bargain.

This is all not to say that Apple isn’t suffering from problems in China that relate to trade and a slumping economy—it is. But Apple’s China problems have been in the works for years. And many of them have been self-induced.