今年的奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)評(píng)比是近年來最開放的一次比賽，多年來，最佳影片的桂冠都由獨(dú)立電影界的寵兒斬獲，今年一些大制作也終于能參與該獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的角逐。

一直跟蹤預(yù)測學(xué)院獎(jiǎng)的Gold Derby根據(jù)評(píng)論家的選擇，列出了六部賠率在10-1以上的電影。由布拉德利·庫珀和Lady Gaga主演的電影《一個(gè)明星的誕生》（A Star Is Born）在網(wǎng)站30名評(píng)選人中得到了21人的青睞。但他們信心不夠堅(jiān)定，把這部影片的賠率設(shè)為13-2，僅略高于《羅馬》（Roma），這部由阿方索·卡隆執(zhí)導(dǎo)、致敬他在墨西哥童年時(shí)光的影片賠率是15-2。

也許今年的獲獎(jiǎng)影片會(huì)是很多人都看過的電影。《一個(gè)明星的誕生》全球票房已經(jīng)超過3.88億美元。《羅馬》僅在少數(shù)影院上映，以確保它有資格競爭奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)，但在全球擁有超過1.37億訂閱用戶的Netflix正在大力推廣該電影。奧斯卡將于1月22日公布提名，頒獎(jiǎng)典禮定于2月24日舉行。

其他有大量觀影基礎(chǔ)又很可能獲得提名的影片包括全球票房13.5億美元的超級(jí)英雄大片《黑豹》（Black Panther）和票房7.025億美元的弗雷迪·默丘里傳記片《波希米亞狂想曲》（Bohemian Rhapsody）。去年大獎(jiǎng)得主《水形物語》（The Shape of Water）全球票房為1.952億美元，而且大部分票房都是在得到奧斯卡提名后獲得的。

“看到像黑豹這樣的電影受到討論讓我非常放心，”全美影院協(xié)會(huì)研究主任菲爾·康特里諾說。“這表明奧斯卡與付費(fèi)觀眾的評(píng)價(jià)更趨一致了。”

異彩紛呈

2018年12月底出現(xiàn)了兩個(gè)潛在的競爭者：關(guān)于迪克·切尼的諷刺性傳記電影《副總統(tǒng)》（Vice）和講述最高法院法官魯思·金斯伯格早年故事的《性之基礎(chǔ)》（On the Basis of Sex）。從商業(yè)角度來看，此類小投資電影能從高調(diào)獲得提名中獲得最大收益，因?yàn)樵S多電影迷往往是在提名時(shí)才第一次聽說這部電影。

1月6日，NBC直播了好萊塢外國記者協(xié)會(huì)（Foreign Press Association）頒發(fā)的金球獎(jiǎng)，比賽就此開鑼。但是隨著本月好萊塢的商業(yè)團(tuán)體開始頒發(fā)各種獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)，影迷將更清楚地了解哪些影片更受青睞。粉絲們尤其應(yīng)該關(guān)注美國演員工會(huì)（Screen Actors Guild）的動(dòng)態(tài)，因?yàn)樗砹藢W(xué)院獎(jiǎng)評(píng)選中最大的投票群體，該獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)將于1月27日公布。英國電影和電視藝術(shù)學(xué)院（BAFTA）2月初頒發(fā)的BAFTA獎(jiǎng)也頗具影響力。

《一個(gè)明星的誕生》有多項(xiàng)利好，該影片由業(yè)界最受歡迎的領(lǐng)軍人物之一庫珀自導(dǎo)自演，電影原聲也大受歡迎。這部影片講的是娛樂行業(yè)，奧斯卡評(píng)委——電影藝術(shù)與科學(xué)學(xué)院（Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences）的成員似乎總能被這個(gè)話題吸引。它還是華納兄弟出品的大制片廠電影。上一部榮獲最佳影片的大制片廠電影也是華納兄弟的作品——2012年的《逃離德黑蘭》（Argo）。

《羅馬》面臨的障礙

相比之下，《羅馬》僅在幾家電影院上映，而電影院是電影愛好者的首選觀影場所。雖然該片巧妙地采用黑白色調(diào)拍攝，影片導(dǎo)演還曾憑借《地心引力》（Gravity）獲得2013年奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)，但這部電影需要突破好萊塢與Netflix間的齟齬，還要克服這家流媒體公司不愿意在院線大范圍發(fā)行該電影的問題。

《黑豹》有自己的優(yōu)勢。為了回應(yīng)#OscarsSoWhite（#奧斯卡好白）等社交媒體運(yùn)動(dòng)的批評(píng)，學(xué)院一直在招募更多的少數(shù)族裔加入。學(xué)院于2018年12月宣布非洲裔美國喜劇演員凱文·哈特將主持奧斯卡后卻遇上了麻煩，因?yàn)閯P文之前在推特上發(fā)表的恐同言論被網(wǎng)友翻了出來，他不得不辭去該職。

《黑豹》或?qū)⒊蔀榈谝徊揩@得奧斯卡最佳影片提名的超級(jí)英雄電影。影片虛構(gòu)了一個(gè)非洲國家，演員大部分都是黑人，主角是一個(gè)超級(jí)英雄，奮起保護(hù)該國的自然資源不被開采。

觀眾最愛

《黑豹》發(fā)行方華特迪士尼公司將該片打造為漫威宇宙的一部分，迪士尼正在為《黑豹》大力爭取獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)，還在西好萊塢舉辦的一項(xiàng)活動(dòng)中宴請(qǐng)了100多名學(xué)院成員。公司首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃·艾格甚至請(qǐng)和這部電影毫無關(guān)系的奧普拉·溫弗瑞為該片站臺(tái)。

如果《黑豹》能出現(xiàn)在獲獎(jiǎng)名單中，會(huì)讓迪士尼的形象在電影制片人中熠熠生輝，可能還有助于提高奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮的收視率。典禮由迪士尼的ABC頻道播出，近年來遭遇收視率下滑困境。學(xué)院還曾考慮推出最受歡迎電影的獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)來提高收視。

B. Riley FBR Inc.的分析師巴頓·克羅克特說：“如果他們能認(rèn)可一部具有這種政治和文化影響力的影片，會(huì)是件大好事。這對(duì)整個(gè)行業(yè)來說都大有裨益。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

This year’s Oscar race is one of the most wide open in recent memory, giving some big-studio blockbusters a shot at the best-picture crown after years of victories by indie darlings.

Gold Derby, which tracks the Academy Awards race, lists six films at 10-1 or better, based on picks by critics. A Star Is Born, the drama starring Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga, is favored by 21 of 30 at the website. But they lack conviction, putting the odds at 13-2, a hair above Roma, director Alfonso Cuaron’s tribute to his childhood in Mexico, at 15-2.

This may also be a year that the winner is a film a lot of people have seen. A Star Is Born has taken in more than $388 million in ticket sales worldwide. Roma, which is playing in a handful of theaters to ensure it can compete for an Oscar, is being promoted heavily on Netflix, which has more than 137 million subscribers worldwide. The nominations will be announced Jan. 22, with the Oscar ceremony scheduled for Feb. 24.

Other widely seen films which a strong chance at a nomination include the superhero blockbuster Black Panther, with $1.35 billion in worldwide ticket sales, and the Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, at $702.5 million. Last year’s winner, The Shape of Water, took in $195.2 million globally—much of it after capturing the Oscar nomination.

“To see a movie like Black Panther in the conversation is very reassuring,” said Phil Contrino, director of research for the National Association of Theatre Owners. “It shows that the Oscars are more in tune with what the paying public is responding to.”

On Your Mark

Two potential contenders opened in late December 2018: Vice, a satirical biopic about Dick Cheney, and On the Basis of Sex, about the early years of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. From a business standpoint, smaller films like these benefit most from high-profile nominations, with many movie fans often hearing about them for the first time.

The race kicks off Jan. 6 when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hands out the Golden Globe Awards on NBC. But cinephiles will get more clarity on the favorites later in the month when Hollywood trade groups begin bestowing their honors. In particular, fans should track the Screen Actors Guild, which represents the largest voting bloc in the academy and announces its winners on Jan. 27. The BAFTA Awards, bestowed in early February by the British Academy of Film & Television Arts, are also influential.

A Star Is Born has a lot going for it, including a directing and starring role for Cooper, one of the industry’s most-popular leading men, as well as a hit soundtrack. It’s about the entertainment business, a subject that always seems to appeal to the Oscars voters, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. It’s also a major studio production—from Warner Bros. The last major-studio film to be crowned best picture was also from Warner Bros.—Argo in 2012.

Roma Hurdles

Roma, by contrast, has appeared in just a few theaters, the preferred venue for movie lovers. Although artfully shot in black and white by a director who won the Oscar for 2013’s Gravity, the film would need to overcome Hollywood’s uneasy relationship with Netflix and the streaming service’s unwillingness to distribute its movies widely in theaters.

Black Panther has its own momentum. The academy has been recruiting more minorities in response to criticism such as the #OscarsSoWhite social-media campaign. The organization found itself in trouble in December 2018 after announcing that African-American comedian Kevin Hart would host the show, only to have him step down after being called out for homophobic comments he made previously on Twitter.

Black Panther is in line to become the first superhero film to get nominated for best picture. It stars a largely black cast and features a superhero who rises to prevent the exploitation of natural resources in a fictional African nation.

Audience Favorite

Walt Disney Co., which released the film as part of its Marvel universe, is campaigning heavily for an award, including hosting more than 100 academy members at an event in West Hollywood. Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger even asked Oprah Winfrey, who had nothing to do with the picture, to come show her support.

Having Black Panther in the mix would burnish Disney’s image with filmmakers and also likely help the TV ratings for the Oscar ceremony. It’s carried on the company’s ABC network and has suffered a loss of viewers in recent years. The academy has flirted with a most-popular-film category to boost the audience.

“If they were to recognize a film with that kind of political and cultural impact, that would be tremendous,” said Barton Crockett, an analyst with B. Riley FBR Inc. “It would be very good for the industry.”