由于汽車銷量和司機駕駛證注冊量的下滑，汽車業的未來似乎有些黯淡。所以，福特（Ford）正在擴大業務范圍，據CNBC報道，他們計劃在2021年推出自動駕駛拼車服務。在這個方向上，他們將最終與Uber、Lyft和通用汽車（General Motors）等公司展開競爭。

福特已經在邁阿密對一輛自動駕駛型的福特Fusion進行了九個月的測試。福特自動駕駛汽車公司（Ford Autonomous Vehicles）的首席執行官謝里夫·馬拉科比在接受CNBC采訪時表示，這款汽車很貴，但是“個人或公司的每英里運輸費用將會降低，對我們而言是有利可圖的”。

押寶未來的汽車銷售，要冒很大的風險。圣路易斯聯邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis）發布的政府數據顯示，從2016年起，汽車銷售總量已經開始出現負增長。密歇根大學（University of Michigan）交通運輸研究所（Transportation Research Institute）的一項研究也發現，16歲至44歲的人群中持有駕照者的比例已經連續數十年出現下降，這導致潛在市場在不斷縮小。

其他公司也把目標投向了自動駕駛拼車服務。據網站The Verge報道，通用汽車在自動駕駛汽車的生產上投入了1億美元。彭博社（Bloomberg）還報道稱，該公司計劃在2019年推出自己的相關服務。

Lyft和Uber也在認真對待這項技術。后者曾在匹茲堡測試自動駕駛的uberX汽車，不過該款汽車隨后在亞利桑那州的坦佩撞倒了一位女士，造成了全球第一起自動駕駛汽車致人死亡的案件。

這就是難點所在。美聯社報道稱，AAA的測試顯示目前的自動駕駛系統有時會失靈。之前Insurance for Highway Safety的測試也得出了類似的結論。

自動駕駛技術在不斷進步，不過它進步的速度還需更快一點，才能讓汽車廠商遠離財務紅線。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

The automobile industry’s future looks a bit rough thanks to a decline in auto sales and sign-ups for driver’s licenses. So, Ford is expanding its horizons with plans to launch a self-driving ride-share service in 2021, CNBC reports. It’s a direction that will ultimately clash with the likes of Uber, Lyft, and General Motors (GM), among others.

The company has been testing a self-driving Ford Fusion in Miami for nine months. The cars are expensive but “the cost per mile for transportation for a person or a business is going to be lower and will be profitable for us,” Sherif Marakby, CEO of Ford Autonomous Vehicles, told CNBC.

Counting on future car sales is risky. Total unit year-over-year sales growth has been turning negative since 2016, according to government data via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And a University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute study found a continuous multi-decade decrease in the percentage of driver’s licenses held by 16- through 44-year-olds, reducing the potential market.

Others are also aiming for self-driving ride-share services. GM is putting $100 million into self-driving car production, The Verge reported, and the company has plans for its own service in 2019, according to Bloomberg.

Lyft and Uber also are serious about the technology. The latter was piloting self-driving uberX cars in Pittsburgh, but then it had the world’s first self-driving fatality when a car ran into a woman in Tempe, Ariz.

And that’s the rub. Tests by AAA show the current systems don’t always work, as the Associated Press reported. Earlier Insurance for Highway Safety tests had similar results.

The tech is improving, but must get better fast enough for auto makers to steer clear of the financial red line.