美國中期選舉的新聞盡是民主黨“占領”眾議院以及共和黨“保住”參議院，在這些消息背后，有件大事卻沒怎么引起關注。在各州議會，2018年中期選舉明確地“向左轉向”——沒有哪個州出現分裂，民主黨擴大了地盤，從內華達到維斯康星，從堪薩斯到緬因都是如此。

民主黨并未取得大規模勝利，但各個州穩定而持續的“變藍”趨勢將對今后幾年的情況產生影響。民主黨控制了六個州的議會，包括科羅拉多州、康涅狄格州、新罕布什爾州和緬因州的參議院以及明尼蘇達州和新罕布什爾州的眾議院。共和黨則丟失了四個州的議會。民主黨還拿下了七個州的州長寶座，分別是內華達、新墨西哥、堪薩斯、伊利諾伊、維斯康星、密歇根和緬因，只是丟了阿拉斯加州。

這讓2016年的右轉趨勢出現了大反轉。唐納德·特朗普贏得歷史性勝利后，共和黨控制了25個州的州長職位和議會，而民主黨即拿下州長又控制議會的州只有八個。在2018年中期選舉前，民主黨已經顯著縮小了與共和黨的差距，掌握了14個州，共和黨手中則有21個州。

對民主、共和兩黨來說，上述結果的影響將持續很長時間。盡管在美國各個層級的政府中，州政府有時會被忽視，但他們的決定對眼下的重大政治問題以及明天的政治“戰場”來說都很關鍵。

投票站出口調查顯示，選民們認為最重要的問題是醫療保險。讓奧巴馬醫改方案獲得通過以及隨后推翻該方案的斗爭主導了近10年的美國政治。但州政府一直左右著醫保法律付諸實施的方式和區域。2012年美國最高法院裁定《平價醫保法案》基本符合憲法，但同時推翻了要求各州大舉擴展醫療補助保險（Medicaid）的條款。

藍色州急于擴大醫保覆蓋面，許多紅色州則不然。共和黨人利用他們對州議會的控制表達了對此項全國性法律的強烈反對，而且阻止了14個州按照奧巴馬醫改方案來擴展醫療補助保險。對目前美國政界最具爭議的問題來說，各州的政治很重要。

州政府和地方教育委員會同樣長期控制著教育方面的重大問題。雖然聯邦政府可以通過“懸賞”或扣留撥款來鼓勵或懲罰州教育部門，但學校實際上是在州和地方政府的掌控之下。州長和州議員決定了哪些州采用對特性學校有利的共同核心課程標準（Common Core），以及公立學校學生是否可以用教育券去上私立學校。在對許多家庭來說都最為重要的問題上，關鍵在于誰控制著州議會，而不是國會由誰掌握。

最后，對今后10年的美國政治而言，尤為關鍵的一點是最激烈政治斗爭的前線確實要由各州來劃定。重新劃分選區的權力掌握在各個州手里。在美國的50個州中，重新劃分選區方案，或者說劃分州議會和國會選區的地圖，大多都要由州議會制定。雖然有些州通過委員會來制定這項方案，但在大多數州，這份地圖必須獲得州議會和州長批準。

直到本次中期選舉前，共和黨一直都擁有巨大優勢，因為它控制的州政府要多得多。共和黨人掌握著劃分選區的權力，2020年人口普查過后，他們就可以在重新劃分各州選區時擁有決定自身命運的大權。而現在，除非2020年大選再次向右轉，否則民主黨將在至少三分之一的州把控著對選區的重新劃分。

主宰本周新聞的國會選舉情況很重要，這一點無可置疑。但各州選舉同樣要緊。在華盛頓，參議院的敗退沖淡了民主黨重掌眾議院的喜悅。但在各州首府，一股持續的藍色浪潮讓民主黨重新掌控了許多州議會和州長寶座，盡管這可能悄然無聲，但將對美國政治產生非常大的影響。（財富中文網）

撒德·庫瑟爾是加州大學圣迭戈分校政治學系主任，他和別人共同編撰了《美國各州政治》一書。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Buried beneath the headlines of midterm elections that were all about blue gains in the House and the red hold over the Senate, a major story broke that has escaped much notice. In statehouses across the country, the 2018 elections brought an unequivocal shift to the left. There was no split decision in the states—Democrats gained ground, from Nevada to Wisconsin, from Kansas to Maine.

Democratic wins did not come on a massive scale, but the solid and consistent blue trend across the states will have an impact for years to come. Democrats took control of six chambers, seizing the senates of Colorado, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine, and winning control of the Minnesota and New Hampshire houses. Republicans lost four chambers. Democrats also gained seven governorships, capturing Nevada, New Mexico, Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, while losing one in Alaska.

This reversed a significant shift to the right in 2016. After Donald Trump’s historic win, Republicans controlled both the governor’s seat and the legislature in 25 states, while Democrats had unified control of only eight states. In the wake of the 2018 midterms, Democrats have come much closer to leveling the playing field, controlling 14 states to the Republicans Party’s 21.

For both parties, these results will reverberate for a long time. Even though state governments sometimes escape notice beneath the layers of American government, their decisions are vital to both the key policy issues of today and political battlegrounds of tomorrow.

According to exit polls, the single most important issue to voters was health care. The fight to pass and then to repeal Obamacare has dominated national politics for nearly a decade. But state governments have wielded power over how and where the health care law will be put into practice. When the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act’s basic constitutionality in 2012, it overturned the provision that required states to expand their Medicaid programs dramatically.

Blue states eagerly widened their health care safety nets, but many red states did not. Using their control of statehouses to voice their strong opposition to the national law, Republicans have prevented the adoption of Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion in 14 states. State politics matter when it comes to the most controversial issue in American politics right now.

State governments and local school boards also wield control over the perennially important issue of education. While federal authorities can incentivize and punish state education departments by dangling or withholding grants, schools are really run at the state and local level. Governors and legislators have decided which states have adopted the national Common Core standards, which are friendly to charter schools, and whether public school students can receive vouchers to attend private schools. On the issue that matters most for many families, what counts the most is who runs a statehouse, rather than who sits in Congress.

Lastly, but most critical to the contours of American politics over the next decade, states literally draw the battle lines of our roughest political fights. The power to redistrict resides in the states. A redistricting plan—the map of lines that defines districts in both state legislatures and for Congress—is a bill written by most of the 50 state legislatures. Although some states draw their plans through commissions, in most capitals, legislators and the governor must agree on a map.

Until these midterms, Republicans held a huge advantage by controlling so many more state governments. With the authority to draw district lines, they held significant power to determine their destiny when redistricting comes to the states after the 2020 census. Now, unless the 2020 elections bring another rightward shift, Democrats will control redistricting in at least a third of states.

The stakes of the congressional elections that have dominated the news this week are undeniably huge. But so too are the stakes in the states. In Washington, D.C., the Democratic joy over retaking the House was tempered by losses in the Senate. In state capitals across the country, a consistently blue wave put Democrats back in power in many of the chambers and governors’ seats that play such a crucial, if quiet, role in American politics.

Thad Kousser is the chair of the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego and the co-editor of Politics in the American States.