如果你相信“希望你生活在有意思的時代”這句話是個詛咒，那你可得當心了。

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在10月2日稱，美國經濟正處在“歷史上難得一見的穩定低通脹和極低失業率并存的時期，這充分說明我們仍然處于非常時期。”

鮑威爾在美國全國商業經濟學家協會于波士頓舉辦的會議上解釋了當前數據的形成原因，其他經濟學家認為低于4%的失業率和將近2%的通脹率共存的罕見情形還將持續兩三年。

美聯儲一直致力于將失業率維持在略低于4.5%，將通脹率維持在略低于2%的水平。這是個微妙的平衡：如果失業率低到一定程度，工資會上漲，從而導致通脹。美聯儲使用的一項工具是調節美國政府債券的利率。利率越高，銀行進行借款的費用就越高，當銀行把這些花費轉移到企業和個人借貸者身上時，就充當了經濟總剎車的角色。

鮑威爾在今年2月從珍妮特·耶倫的手中接過美聯儲主席一職，當時許多人都評論稱，他延續了“建立共識”的風格。耶倫掌管時，美聯儲于去年逐步加息，鮑威爾接管后，采用了同樣的做法。

有批評者提出，失業率和通脹之間的實際健康比率可能并非如此。鮑威爾在演講中表達了對所謂菲利普斯曲線的支持，菲利普斯曲線描述了失業率和通脹率之間的關系，但又說曲線的形狀可能會因為自然充分就業率的改變而發生變化。他還指出，9月末聯邦公開市場委員會會后，一名記者問他當前的環境是不是“好到不真實”了——他說這是個合情合理的問題。

鮑威爾還指出，最近聯邦減稅和增加開支的做法會導致政府在出現下次經濟衰退時沒有什么回旋余地。美聯儲控制不了這些。

“我們現在正處于一個周期的頂點，”鮑威爾說，“而且是時候整理一下我們的財政機構了。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

If you believe the legend that “may you live in interesting times” is a curse, hold onto your hat.

On October 2nd, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy’s “historically rare pairing of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

Speaking at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economists in Boston, Powell explained why and other economists have concluded that the rare combination of sub-4% unemployment and near-2% inflation might last another couple of years.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has historically sought to keep unemployment below about 4.5% and inflation near 2%. It’s a delicate balance: when unemployment drops low enough, wages tend to rise, which can cause inflation. One of the Fed’s tools is setting the interest rates it pays for U.S. government bonds. The higher those rates, the costlier it becomes for banks to borrow and they pass those costs to commercial and private borrowers, acting as a general brake on the economy.

Powell took over the chair from Janet Yellen in February in what many commentators called a continuation of a consensus-building style. The Fed raised rates little by little last year under Yellen and has continued to do so under Powell.

Some critics have raised the possibility that the actual healthy ratio between unemployment and inflation is different. In his speech, Powell defended the so-called Phillips curve, which describes that ratio, but said that it was possible that the shape of the curve could change as the natural full employment rate changed. He also noted that after the late September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a reporter asked him if the current environment was “too good to be true”—a query he called “a reasonable question.”

Powell also noted that the recent federal tax cuts and spending boosts will leave the government less maneuvering room whenever the next recession hits. The Fed does not control those.

“This is the top of the cycle,” Powell said, “and it’s a good time to be working on putting our fiscal house in order.”