美國(guó)民調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)皮尤研究中心的一項(xiàng)新近研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，2016年特朗普贏得美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選過程中，擁有投票權(quán)卻放棄投票的選民與實(shí)際投票的選民一樣負(fù)有責(zé)任。

該研究指出一個(gè)重要的數(shù)據(jù)：2016年，有資格投票的美國(guó)人里十人有四人放棄投票。皮尤的研究人員采取獨(dú)特（也獨(dú)具價(jià)值）的步驟驗(yàn)證投票行為真實(shí)性，從而判斷哪些人的確投了票，哪些人棄權(quán)。通過將現(xiàn)實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)分類，他們明確了一點(diǎn)：2016年，棄權(quán)選民與實(shí)際投票的選民對(duì)特朗普獲勝責(zé)任一樣大。

研究人員還進(jìn)一步從人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)和政治立場(chǎng)的角度研究投票的選民和放棄投票權(quán)的選民。他們指出，相比參與投票的選民，放棄投票的選民可能更年輕、受教育較少、相對(duì)不夠富有，而且大多不是白人。

研究囊括了多項(xiàng)細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，其中有一些特征很明顯。比如，研究者指出：“民主黨人和傾向民主黨的獨(dú)立派在放棄投票的選民中占比達(dá)55%?！痹谝恍╆P(guān)鍵的搖擺州，假如30歲以下的選民增加，熱門候選人希拉里·克林頓應(yīng)該有可能勝出。

正如這張圖表所示，棄權(quán)的選民可能比投票的選民更年輕、不那么富裕，而且不是白人。放棄投票的選民里民主黨更多。

——皮尤研究中心

雖然皮尤研究顯示，棄權(quán)的選民不太可能認(rèn)同共和黨的主張，但在放棄投票的選民意識(shí)形態(tài)觀方面，數(shù)據(jù)并不夠明確。研究的執(zhí)筆者寫道：“由于棄權(quán)選民政治立場(chǎng)散漫的情況更為普遍，比起投票選民在意識(shí)形態(tài)方面更多屬于‘混合’類別?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

When it comes to the Donald Trump presidency, nonvoters are just as responsible as verified 2016 voters for the presidential election results, according to a new study from the Pew Research Center.

The study notes an important statistic: four in 10 Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. And by taking the unique (and uniquely valuable) step of validating those who claimed they voted, Pew researchers were able to determine who actually voted and who did not. Breaking out these categories into hard data makes it clear: Nonvoters in 2016 had just as much to do with establishing the Trump presidency as actual voters.

The study researchers also expanded on the demographic and political distinctions between voters and voter-eligible nonvoters. They noted that compared with validated votes, “nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent, and nonwhite.”

The study includes a lot of granular statistics, some of which easily stand alone. For example, “Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents made up a 55% majority of nonvoters,” the researchers noted. An increase in under-30 voters in key swing states could have cinched the election for popular vote winner Hillary Clinton.

As this chart shows, nonvoters were more likely than voters to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.

——?Pew Research Center

And while the study shows that nonvoters were less likely to align with the Republican Party, the data gets fuzzier in terms of how nonvoters feel ideologically. “Owing in part to the tendency of nonvoters to be politically disengaged more generally, there are far more nonvoters than voters who fall into the ‘mixed’ category on the ideological consistency scale,” the study authors noted.