大家也許在今年6月出版的《財富》雜志上看到過杰夫·科爾文對通用電氣的精準分析，那篇文章的名字很妙，叫《到底出了什么事？》（What the Hell Happened?）或者，大家可能對他近幾個月探討Intuit、寶潔、富國銀行或卡夫亨氏的那些有說服力的特寫有所耳聞。如果看過其中的某幾篇（最好大家都讀過），那么大家就會發現，在如今的商業報道領域里，基本上沒人能像杰夫那樣透徹地對企業進行剖析。

在本期《財富》雜志中，作為本刊資深編輯的杰夫，我們請他來分析一下美國經濟，好比解析公司一樣，查查它的資產負債表，檢討一下它的經營模式和現任管理層，再發揮一下他的特長，周詳地進行一次無死角風險分析。

就這樣，我們得到了本期的封面文章。同時，對所有認為美國歷時數年的經濟增長能永遠持續下去的人來說，這篇文章釋放了一個讓人冷靜的信號，那就是經濟不會一直呈上升態勢。商業周期就是周期，盡管連續增長已經達到驚人的110個月，成為164年來第二長的增長期，但經濟轉向不可避免，而且它到來的時間可能比大多數人預計的還要快。

杰夫認為，引發經濟滑坡的將是基本面和表象誘因的共同作用，其中既有一段時間以來一直制約經濟的因素，也有較新而且對前一類因素有助推作用的情況。兩個領域中的債務都很高——國會的借款與開支規模和許多杠桿過高的公司一樣，都處于危險水平。杰夫介紹說，美國公司的凈負債/利潤比例已經達到15年來的最高點。

另一方面，特朗普政府對移民的明顯敵意進一步限制了美國勞動力的增長，而人口結構已經給美國的勞動力帶來了挑戰。愈演愈烈的貿易戰、和長期盟友的任性紛爭，以及不斷上升的利率和油價將共同讓貿易和投資增長變得更為緩慢。

至于所有這些什么時候會引發衰退，或者說引發的衰退什么時候會影響到股市，目前還沒有定論。就像杰夫所言，崩盤之前，追捧行情不會輕易結束。但就像大家將在我們的封面文章中看到的那樣，有充分跡象表明我們正在朝著這個方向邁進。

除了年度世界500強名單，本期《財富》雜志還就上述話題給工商界提了個醒，那就是現在美國公司面臨的競爭比以往任何時候都激烈。10年前，在按收入排列的全球最大500家企業中，近三分之一（153家）都在美國，它們的收入總和達到驚人的30萬億美元，占全球GDP的38%。現在，世界500強中有126家美國公司。同樣是在這10年里，中國大陸公司的數量在這個頗有威望的名單中從29家增至111家。

當然，上述情況絕不會讓人們認為美國已經失去了它固有的創業動力或競爭力。要證明這一點，只需要花幾分鐘來看看我們看重的經濟指標之一——40位40歲以下的商界精英。從編演導三棲明星喬丹·皮爾到擊敗埃隆·馬斯克，獲得美國太陽能市場主導權的Sunrun首席執行官林恩·朱莉奇，美國有創造力而且目標遠大的顛覆者可謂濟濟一堂。

大家可以相信，無論商業周期在什么時候轉向，這個優勢都不會消失。（財富中文網）

本文最初刊登在2018年8月1日出版的《財富》雜志上，題為《商業周期正在轉向》。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

MAYBE YOU READ HIS SURGICAL ANALYSIS of GE in our June issue, aptly titled “What the Hell Happened?” Or perhaps you’re familiar with his probing and cogent feature stories on Intuit, P&G, Wells Fargo, or Kraft Heinzin recent months. But if you’ve read any of these stories (and hopefully, you’ve read them all), you already know that nobody in the business press today dissects companies quite as deftly as Geoff Colvin does.

In this issue, though, we asked Geoff, a Fortune senior editor-at-large, to dig into something much bigger than any one company. We asked him to dissect the U.S. economy: to scrutinize its balance sheet, examine its business model and current management, and do the kind of thoughtful, 360-degree risk analysis that Geoff does so well.

The result is our cover story, and a sobering message for anyone who thinks that our aged economic expansion can last forever: It won’t. The business cycle is just that, a cycle, and even after an extraordinary 110 months of nonstop growth—the second-longest expansion in 164 years of measuring—a change in tide is inevitable. And it’s probably coming sooner than most think.

What will precipitate this one, Geoff argues, is a combination of fundamentals and fomenters—factors that have been straining the economy for some time, along with more recent developments that compound the effects of the former. Debt is high up on both lists: Our borrow-and-spend Congress has found a dangerous kinship with today’s multitude of overleveraged companies; corporate America’s net debt-to-earnings ratio is at the highest level in 15 years, as Geoff reports.

The Trump administration’s outright hostility to immigration, likewise, further constrains the growth in America’s demographically challenged labor force. And the specter of an escalating trade war, petulant fights with long-standing allies, and rising interest rates and oil prices are combining to slow trade and investment even more.

As for when all this will lead to a recession—or, for that matter, affect the stock market—that’s anybody’s guess. As Geoff points out, we could easily end up with a “melt-up” in the market before we get a meltdown. But, as you’ll see in our cover story, the signs are abundant that we’re headed that way.

This issue of Fortune—which includes our annual Global 500 ranking—also brings a related reminder to the business community: U.S. companies face more competition today than ever. A decade ago, America was home to nearly a third (153) of the world’s 500 largest companies by revenue, which together account for a stunning $30 trillion in revenue or 38% of global GDP. Our share is now a quarter (126). Over the same 10 years, meanwhile, China boosted its own representation on this venerable list from 29 companies to 111.

None of the above, of course, should make anyone think that America has lost its innate entrepreneurial energy or competitiveness. For proof, just spend a few minutes going through one of Fortune’s favorite economic indicators—our 40 Under 40 list. From triple threat writer-actor-director Jordan Peele to Sunrun CEO Lynn Jurich, who has outmaneuvered Elon Musk in the fight to dominate the U.S. solar market, America is brimming with creative and ambitious disrupters.

You can be sure that advantage won’t go away—no matter when the business cycle turns.

A version of this article appears in the August 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “The Business Cycle Is Turning.”