如今，比特幣和其他數(shù)字貨幣成了罪犯的新寵，原因是通過它們可以神不知鬼不覺地在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上匿名轉(zhuǎn)移資金。但這樣的說法或許言過其實，因為Chainalysis等公司幫助執(zhí)法部門追蹤這些神秘貨幣的業(yè)務(wù)正在蓬勃發(fā)展。

Chainalysis設(shè)在紐約市，它聘請了一批擁有博士頭銜的數(shù)據(jù)科學家和統(tǒng)計學家來研究比特幣的區(qū)塊鏈，也就是記錄交易的公共賬本，從而找到誰擁有多少數(shù)字貨幣的線索。這項工作得以開展的原因是區(qū)塊鏈包含一系列數(shù)字錢包，每個錢包都有獨特的編號，而且可以看到其資金進出情況。

雖然這些錢包的“身份證”是隨機字母和數(shù)字組成的字符串，但Chainalysis可以鎖定那些和犯罪活動有關(guān)的錢包，以便執(zhí)法部門搜索其他網(wǎng)絡(luò)線索，從而把這些錢包和實際生活中的人聯(lián)系在一起。在這方面，最著名的案例出現(xiàn)在2015年，Chainalysis的“偵查”幫助美國聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局（FBI）挖出了兩名腐敗的聯(lián)邦探員，他們一直從一個著名在線黑市的所有者手中盜取比特幣。

比特幣偵探公司可不止Chainalysis一家。在加利福尼亞，初創(chuàng)公司CipherTrace有意令自己的計算機感染上了勒索軟件，目的就是追蹤為解鎖電腦而支付的比特幣流向何處。對于既定的勒索行為，這樣做可以獲得有關(guān)幕后黑手的線索，某些情況下還能幫執(zhí)法部門追回贖金。

這些公司不止追蹤比特幣。湯姆·羅賓遜和別人一起創(chuàng)立了設(shè)在倫敦的數(shù)字貨幣偵探公司Elliptic。他說：“以太坊、萊特幣、瑞波幣等其他貨幣都在快速擴張。”

“無論以什么樣的形式存儲價值，它都有可能被用于非法目的。”

對這些公司而言，Zcash等所謂隱私貨幣的出現(xiàn)可能意味著今后幾年比特幣偵探工作的終結(jié)。隱私貨幣不像比特幣那樣會留下交易記錄。但Chainalysis的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·格羅納格爾并不擔心。他指出，Zcash等貨幣的用戶較少，而且對使用了這些貨幣的人來說，仍有可能找到一些蛛絲馬跡。

此外，追蹤罪犯只是數(shù)字貨幣偵探公司的業(yè)務(wù)之一。隨著加密貨幣投資成為主流，這些公司開始幫助銀行、對沖基金等機構(gòu)在“了解客戶”和反洗錢方面達到監(jiān)管要求。

標普全球市場情報（S&P Global Market Intelligence）分析師湯姆·曼森認為：“相關(guān)法律一直而且仍將是老牌金融機構(gòu)更放心地對待數(shù)字貨幣的障礙。”

數(shù)字貨幣偵探可能催生出另一項有意思的業(yè)務(wù)，那就是探測市場趨勢。在委內(nèi)瑞拉和中國等實施資本管制的國家，比特幣交易活動增多可能意味著這個國家的貨幣面臨著壓力。在官方發(fā)布相關(guān)公告前，了解到這些情況甚至有可能讓投資者提前幾個月掌握宏觀經(jīng)濟走勢。這就是所謂的“把握趨勢，贏得未來”。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文最初刊登在2018年7月1日出版的《財富》雜志。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

?

BITCOIN AND OTHER DIGITAL CURRENCIES caught on with criminals thanks to their reputation as an anonymous, untraceable way to move money around the Internet. That reputation may be overblown. Companies like Chainalysis have built fast-growing businesses helping law enforcement track the mysterious money.

The New York City company employs a gaggle of doctoratewielding data scientists and statisticians who study Bitcoin’s blockchain—its indelible public ledger that records transactions—to gain clues about who owns given hoards of the digital currency. The practice is possible because the blockchain contains a series of digital “wallets” that have a unique identifier and show the flow of money into and out of the wallet.

Though the “keys” that identify the wallets are random alphanumeric strings, Chainalysis can identify clusters of wallets tied to criminal activity, enabling law enforcement to look for other online clues to connect them to a real-life identity. The most famous example of this came in 2015 when forensic sleuthing by Chainalysis helped the FBI identify two corrupt federal agents who had been stealing Bitcoins from the owner of a notorious online drug market.

Chainalysis isn’t the only Bitcoin detective out there. A California startup called CipherTrace infects its own computers with ransomware to observe the movement of Bitcoin paid to free the machines. The activity can provide clues about who is behind a given shakedown and, in some cases, help law enforcement recover the money.

It’s not just Bitcoin the firms are chasing. “Other currencies such as Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple are rapidly expanding,” says Tom Robinson, cofounder of London-based forensic firm Elliptic.

“Whatever form value is stored in, it can be used for illicit purpose.”

Bitcoin detectives’ work may be cut out for them in the years ahead. The arrival of so-called privacy coins like Zcash do not leave behind a transaction record like Bitcoin. But Chainalysis CEO Michael Gronager is not fazed. He says that relatively few people use them and that it’s still possible to glean some insight about those who do.

Besides, tracking criminals is just one line of business for forensic firms. As cryptocurrency investing enters the mainstream, these companies are working to help banks, hedge funds, and others comply with “know your customer” and anti–money laundering laws.

“These laws have been, and will continue to be, a hurdle for incumbent financial institutions becoming more comfortable with digital currencies,” says Tom Mason, an analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Cryptoforensics could give rise to another intriguing business: detecting market trends. An uptick of Bitcoin activity in countries such as Venezuela or China, where governments impose capital controls, could indicate that a national currency is under stress. Insights could even help investors understand macroeconomic trends months before authorities make official statements about them. Call it putting your money where your mouth is.

This article originally appeared in the July 1, 2018 issue of Fortune.