多家投資銀行都在尖端的計算機程序上投入巨資，期望可以更好的預(yù)測股市，盡管股市在本質(zhì)上有不可預(yù)測性。為了展現(xiàn)算法的厲害，有些金融機構(gòu)開始預(yù)測2018世界杯的冠軍。

瑞士的瑞銀集團（UBS）和德國商業(yè)銀行（Commerzbank）的預(yù)測卻掉鏈子了。世界杯開賽前，兩家銀行都用計算機模擬所有比賽并得出結(jié)論，最有可能奪冠的是：德國隊。

排名世界第一的德國隊，卻出人意外地在周三以0：2輸給了韓國隊，這是本屆世界杯迄今為止最大的冷門。德國以衛(wèi)冕冠軍的姿態(tài)參加本屆杯賽，結(jié)果不但出局，甚至未能進入16強。

其他投資銀行的預(yù)測是對是錯，還有待時間的檢驗。高盛（ Goldman Sachs）此前也模擬了100萬場比賽，并預(yù)測今年巴西會奪冠（同時也預(yù)測說德國進決賽），荷蘭國際集團（ING）則預(yù)測西班牙最終奪冠。

讓華爾街挽回一些顏面的，是學(xué)術(shù)界的模擬計算也認為德國奪冠幾率最大，至少德國能進決賽。阿德萊德大學(xué)的一項模擬計算認為德國有13%的幾率奪冠，因斯布魯克大學(xué)的另一項模擬計算認為巴西有17%的奪冠幾率，緊隨其后的是德國16%。

這些大學(xué)比瑞銀聰明的地方或許在于預(yù)測的方式：比如說德國奪冠概率是1/6，一旦不準還好說一點，而直白地預(yù)測說冠軍是誰，一旦預(yù)測破產(chǎn)，就挺尷尬了。

不知道有哪臺計算機能跟章魚保羅的未卜先知能力有一拼，保羅曾預(yù)測14場世界杯比賽的勝者，對了12場。2010年保羅去世了。其他小動物比如名叫阿喀琉斯的小白貓，也在預(yù)測本屆世界杯的比賽，不過它們似乎都比不上保羅。

德國隊的失敗，意味著自1938年以來，德國第一次在世界杯上這么早就出局。過去的20年里，衛(wèi)冕冠軍在小組賽即遭淘汰的有：2002年的法國，2010年的意大利，2014年的西班牙，還有今年的德國。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：宣峰?

Investment banks have spent heavily on sophisticated computer programs, hoping to better predict stock market that is inherently unpredictable. To show off their algorithmic prowess, some financial institutions set out to predict the winner of the 2018 World Cup.

For Switzerland-based UBS and Germany’s Commerzbank, that didn’t work out so well. Before the game started, the banks ran computer simulations of World Cup games and both concluded that the likely winner would be… (drumroll)… Germany.

The top ranked country suffered a stunning 2-0 defeat on Wednesday to South Korea, the World Cup’s biggest upset so far. Germany entered the tournament as its defending champion, but the team was not only eliminated from the World Cup, it didn’t even secure a place in the round of 16.

Predictions from other investment banks have yet to be proven right or wrong. Goldman Sachs ran a simulation of 1 million games and predicted that Brazil would win the World Cup this year (although it also predicted Germany reaching the finals). ING, a Dutch bank, said its models foresaw Spain winning the World Cup this year.

In fairness to Wall Street, simulations that were run in the academic world also saw Germany as a favorite to win or at least reach the finals. One simulation by the University of Adelaide gave Germany a 13% chance of winning, while another at the University of Innsbruck reckoned the Brazil had a 17% chance of winning, with Germany close behind at a 16% chance.

Perhaps the edge that universities have over UBS was in the way they presented their predictions: saying Germany has a one in six chance of winning the World Cup doesn’t look so bad today, while flat-out predicting the winner isn’t a good look.

It’s still not clear whether any computer can match the World Cup divination powers of Paul the octopus, which correctly divined 12 out of 14 World Cup winners. Paul passed away in 2010. Other animals, such as Achilles the cat, are trying to predict World Cup games this year but none so far can lay claim to Paul’s throne.

Germany’s loss marks the country’s earliest exit from the World Cup since 1938. In the past 20 years for defending champions have been eliminated in the group phrase: France in 2002, Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014, and Germany this year.