蘋(píng)果（Apple）首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫(kù)克銷(xiāo)售高價(jià)iPhone的策略是否取得了效果？華爾街莫衷一是。而看起來(lái)，他們還需要至少六個(gè)月的時(shí)間才能得出結(jié)論。

上周二，蘋(píng)果發(fā)布了截至3月31日的季度財(cái)報(bào)，并得到了投資者的正面反饋。公司收入提高了16%至611億美元，與分析師預(yù)測(cè)的一樣；iPhone銷(xiāo)量達(dá)到5,220萬(wàn)部，也與華爾街的預(yù)期相差無(wú)幾。

此外，公司還試圖討好投資者，聲稱(chēng)要回購(gòu)1,000億美元股票，并提高16%的股息。這種破費(fèi)往往會(huì)取悅投資者。

不過(guò)縱使蘋(píng)果股價(jià)在盤(pán)后交易中上漲了4%，也只是回到了175美元左右，這是去年11月以及之后幾個(gè)月中來(lái)回波動(dòng)的水平。而華爾街預(yù)測(cè)的蘋(píng)果業(yè)績(jī)，也是分析師花了幾周時(shí)間調(diào)低預(yù)期的結(jié)果。他們擔(dān)心高價(jià)的iPhone可能?chē)樑芤恍┫M(fèi)者，尤其是在新興市場(chǎng)。

就在一周前，分析師對(duì)蘋(píng)果收入的預(yù)測(cè)平均值還是519億美元。而花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）的分析師吉姆·蘇瓦幾乎在一個(gè)月前就預(yù)測(cè)到了蘋(píng)果1,000億美元的股票回購(gòu)。

蘋(píng)果現(xiàn)在顯然做得不錯(cuò)，不過(guò)公司未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)的來(lái)源卻仍然朦朧未明。

首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫(kù)克把握了每一個(gè)與分析師舉行電話(huà)會(huì)議的機(jī)會(huì)，來(lái)宣揚(yáng)iPhone尤其是iPhone X的前景。庫(kù)克在電話(huà)會(huì)議中屢次表示，iPhone X面世以來(lái)，一直是蘋(píng)果的熱銷(xiāo)機(jī)型，也是中國(guó)賣(mài)得最好的手機(jī)，試圖借此回應(yīng)一些分析師的負(fù)面敘述。

他表示：“iPhone X是一款飽受喜愛(ài)的產(chǎn)品。我認(rèn)為它類(lèi)似于贏得超級(jí)碗（Super Bowl）的球隊(duì)，你可能希望他們?cè)俣嘹A幾分，但他們已經(jīng)獲得超級(jí)碗了。我對(duì)這款產(chǎn)品感到無(wú)比驕傲。”

對(duì)于高價(jià)iPhone能否熱賣(mài)的爭(zhēng)論可以追溯到去年9月。除了推出1,000美元的全新機(jī)型之外，蘋(píng)果還把升級(jí)款的iPhone 8定價(jià)699美元，較之前一年的版本貴了50美元或8%，把iPhone 8 Plus定價(jià)799美元，較之前一年的大屏版本貴了30美元或4%。新機(jī)型開(kāi)售六個(gè)月以來(lái)，蘋(píng)果手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)量為1.295億部，同比增長(zhǎng)僅有0.4%，但它們的售價(jià)更高，因此收入增長(zhǎng)了14%，達(dá)到996億美元。

真正的問(wèn)題在于，這種收入增長(zhǎng)的幅度，蘋(píng)果還能保持多久？要維持這樣的增速，今年的新機(jī)型就要賣(mài)得更貴，否則在許多人認(rèn)為已經(jīng)飽和的全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，蘋(píng)果賣(mài)出的手機(jī)數(shù)還必須再次增加。

庫(kù)克激烈地反對(duì)這種說(shuō)法，指出全球去年共賣(mài)出了約5億部簡(jiǎn)單的功能手機(jī)。他表示：“許多這類(lèi)手機(jī)進(jìn)入了新興市場(chǎng)。我們?nèi)匀幌嘈牛S著時(shí)間的推移，所有的手機(jī)都會(huì)是智能手機(jī)。在我們看來(lái)，還有這么多功能手機(jī)在賣(mài)，就意味著還有巨大的機(jī)會(huì)。”

當(dāng)然，蘋(píng)果也在其他領(lǐng)域發(fā)展，例如Apple Music等服務(wù)和AirPods和Apple Watch等可穿戴設(shè)備。但是這些業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模只相當(dāng)于iPhone的一小部分，利潤(rùn)空間也無(wú)法與后者匹敵。

目前來(lái)看，華爾街的爭(zhēng)論還將持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正?

Wall Street hasn’t been able to figure out whether Apple CEO Tim Cook’s gambit to sell higher priced iPhones is working. And it looks like it’s going to take more than six months to figure it out.

On Tuesday, Apple reported results for the quarter ending March 31 that received a positive reception from investors. Revenue jumped 16% to $61.1 billion, just as analysts had forecast, and iPhone sales reached 52.2 million, also about what Wall Street expected.

Additionally, the company tried to curry favor with investors by pledging to buy back another $100 billion of its own stock and raise its dividend by 16%. That kind of spending often pleases investors.

But the almost 4% jump in Apple’s stock price in after-hours trading only got the shares back to around $175, the same level where they were back in November and have bounced around for the intervening months. And the Wall Street forecasts that Apple met were a result of weeks of analysts reducing their projections based on fears the higher priced iPhones might scare off some customers, particularly in emerging markets.

As recently a week ago, the average analyst revenue forecast was $51.9 billion. And Citigroup analyst Jim Suva predicted the $100 billion share buyback level almost a month ago.

Apple is clearly doing well for now, but the sources of future growth may still be murky.

CEO Tim Cook took every opportunity on a call with analysts to pump up the iPhone’s prospects, particularly the iPhone X. The iPhone X has been Apple’s top selling device every week since it came out and was the best selling phone model in China, Cook noted multiple times on the call, as he sought to combat the negative narrative some analysts were pushing.

“The iPhone X is a beloved product,” he said. “I think that it’s one of those things where a team wins the Super Bowl and maybe you want them to win by a few more points, but it’s a Super Bowl winner. I could not be prouder of the product.”

The debate over whether higher priced iPhones would sell started back in September. In addition to the new $1,000 model, Apple also priced its upgraded iPhone 8 at $699, $50 or 8%, more than the prior year’s model and 8 Plus at $799, a $30 or 4% price hike last year’s larger screen device. Since the new models went on sale, Apple has sold 129.5 million, just a 0.4% gain from the same six months a year earlier. But with the higher prices, revenue climbed 14% to $99.6 billion.

The real question is how long Apple can keep revenue growing at this pace. To grow a year from now, next year’s models would have to be even more expensive or the number sold would have to start increasing again in what many consider to be an already globally saturated smartphone market.

Cook battled furiously against that narrative, pointing out that about 500 million simple feature phones were sold last year. “Many of those were sold into emerging markets,” he said. “We still believe that over time every phone sold will be a smartphone. It seems to us with so many feature phones being sold, that’s still a big opportunity.”

To be sure, Apple is also growing in other areas, such as sales of services like Apple Music and wearables like AirPods and the Apple Watch. But those businesses remain a fraction of the iPhone’s size and probably can’t match its profit margins, either.

For now, Wall Street will have to keep debating.