美國國會預算辦公室（CBO）預計，到2020年美國預算赤字將突破1萬億美元，比此前預計的時間早了兩年，原因是唐納德·特朗普總統頒布的減稅和增加支出政策幾乎沒能提高長期經濟增長率。

作為美國國會無黨派機構，CBO上周一發布報告稱，在截至今年9月30日的2018財年中，美國政府的支出將比收入多8040億美元，遠高于去年6月預測的5630億美元。2019財年這個數字將達到9810億美元，而此前的預期為6890億。

CBO在去年6月的報告中認為預算赤字要到2022財年才會超過1萬億美元。

包括新的稅收和支出法案在內，2018-2027年美國政府的累計赤字將達到11.7萬億美元，比CBO去年6月預測的數字高1.6萬億美元左右。該報告指出，CBO預計在此期間美國政府收入將減少2%，支出將增加1%。

CBO稱，減稅和支出法案“帶來了財政刺激，在短期內對實際GDP的提振幅度要超過潛在GDP。長期而言，所有這些因素的影響，再加上新法案造成聯邦預算赤字增大，將給利率和價格帶來上行壓力?！?

入不敷出

赤字不斷上升的原因包括特朗普政府今年對稅收的調整將使美國政府今后10年的收入減少1萬億美元以上，以及國會批準將政府支出增加約3000億美元。投資者正在衡量中美關稅沖突對全球經濟的潛在影響，CBO的最新預測可能會讓他們更加擔心。

即使是在上述最新財政政策頒布前，由于美國人口老齡化給醫療保健和退休養老帶來的壓力，其預算赤字預計也將擴大。

特朗普政府此前曾表示，減稅將加快經濟增速，從而抵銷政府赤字增大的影響。

CBO基于第四季度同比數字預計，2018日歷年美國實際GDP將增長3.3%，2019和2020年增速將回落至2.4%和1.8%。去年6月CBO曾預測今年美國GDP將增2%。

CBO指出：“2020-2026年將有一系列因素妨礙經濟增長，包括利率和價格上升，聯邦政府支出增速放慢以及個人所得稅減稅政策到期?！?

經濟增長

該報告同時預測，2019年美國平均失業率將從今年的3.8%降至3.3%。

CBO主任基思·霍爾本周將就該報告在參議院和眾議院預算委員會作證。

美國國會尚未打算在11月份中期選舉前推出削減赤字的重大政策。眾議院雖將起草預算解決方案，但參議院已經暗示不會接受眾議院的提案。如果無法迅速就預算問題達成一致，保守派共和黨人尋求的削減支出法案就根本不可能生效，原因是民主黨可以在參議院阻撓此項法案的通過。

眾議院計劃在幾周內就平衡預算修正案進行象征性投票，而且正在討論拿出一個一攬子方案，以取消此前的綜合支出法案中增加部分國內開支的計劃。

機會了了

這些增加支出的計劃是應民主黨的要求加入綜合支出法案的，原因是通過該法案需要民主黨參議員的贊成票。。即便該一攬子方案只需要共和黨的50票就能在參議院獲得通過，但分析師們認為它幾乎不可能生效，因為這會削弱共和黨領袖今后就跨黨派事務與民主黨討價還價的能力。

CBO的基本預期是在現有法案繼續生效的情況下做出的預測。該機構假設，國會定期上調的年度撥款預算上限仍會存在。這種情況下，美國政府的預算赤字甚至有可能超過CBO預測的水平。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

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The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, jumping from a projected $563 billion shortfall forecast in June, the non-partisan arm of Congress said in a report last Monday. In fiscal 2019, the deficit will reach $981 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $689 billion.

Deficits were only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June.

The U.S. cumulative deficit — taking into account the new tax and spending legislation — will be $11.7 trillion from 2018 to 2027, about $1.6 trillion larger than the CBO projection in June. The CBO forecast 2 percent less revenue and 1 percent more spending over the period, it said.

The tax-cut and spending legislation “provide fiscal stimulus, raising real GDP more than potential GDP in the near term,” the CBO said. “Over the longer term, all of those effects, as well as the larger federal budget deficits resulting from the new laws, exert upward pressure on interest rates and prices.”

Revenue Shortfall

Deficits are growing as the Trump administration enacted a tax overhaul this year that will lower federal revenue by more than a $1 trillion over the next decade and Congress approved a roughly $300 billion spending increase. The fresh CBO estimates could heighten investor worries as they weigh the potential impact that tariff threats between the U.S. and China may have on the world economy.

Even before the latest fiscal measures, the U.S. budget gap was predicted to increase as an aging American population puts pressure on health care and retirement programs.

The Trump administration has said tax cuts will lead to faster economic growth that would offset deficit expansion.

CBO estimated that real gross domestic product will expand by 3.3 percent in the 2018 calendar year, before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020, based on the fourth quarter year-over-year figure. In June, CBO forecast 2 percent growth this year.

“During the 2020-2026 period, a number of factors dampen economic growth: higher interest rates and prices, slower growth in federal outlays, and the expiration of reductions in personal income tax rates,” CBO said.

Economic Growth

The report sees unemployment declining to 3.3 percent in 2019 on an annual average, from 3.8 percent this year.

CBO Director Keith Hall will testify about the report this week before the House and Senate budget committees.

Congress isn’t planning to enact any major deficit-cutting legislation before the November midterm elections. While the House will draft a budget resolution, the Senate has indicated it won’t take one up. Without the fast-track budget reconciliation, there is no chance entitlement cuts conservative Republicans are seeking can be enacted because Democrats can employ a Senate filibuster.

The House plans a symbolic vote on a balanced budget amendment in the coming weeks and is also discussing bringing forward a package to cancel some of the domestic spending increases from the omnibus spending bill.

Little Chance

Those increases were put in the bill at the request of Democrats since the legislation required Senate Democratic votes to pass. Analysts see little chance of enactment for the legislation, which would undermined the ability of Republican leaders to negotiate future bipartisan deals, even though it can clear the Senate with just 50 Republican votes.

The CBO baseline represents what it projects will happen if current law is allowed to remain in effect. CBO assumes that budget caps on annual appropriations, which Congress has raised regularly, remain in effect. Because of that, deficits are likely to be even larger than CBO is projecting.