美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張后，數(shù)百萬(wàn)人已重新上崗，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在處于或者接近充分就業(yè)水平。但這話到底什么意思？經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的充分就業(yè)并不代表人人都有工作，而且即便經(jīng)濟(jì)再健康再繁榮，失業(yè)率也不可能降至零。如果失業(yè)率降得太多，通脹就會(huì)回升，因?yàn)橛萌藛挝粻?zhēng)相招聘員工，導(dǎo)致薪資上漲太快。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家而言，充分就業(yè)意味著失業(yè)率要降到不會(huì)引起通脹上升的最低水平。在美國(guó)，充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)的失業(yè)率約為5%，高于美國(guó)官方公布的2月失業(yè)率：4.1%。通脹會(huì)因此走高嗎？或者說(shuō)，充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)下失業(yè)率水平比經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)的要低？

現(xiàn)狀

本輪美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇始于2009年，截至2017年年末，全國(guó)就業(yè)人數(shù)由1.38億人增長(zhǎng)到1.54億人。同期失業(yè)人數(shù)由1500萬(wàn)人減少到不足700萬(wàn)人。由于人才市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)吃緊，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在討論何時(shí)加息。問(wèn)題在于，現(xiàn)在沒(méi)有以往明確多少美國(guó)人想找工作，因此難以判定抵御通脹率上升的失業(yè)率底線在哪。這是因?yàn)?，上一次?jīng)濟(jì)衰退相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重，對(duì)人才市場(chǎng)的影響尚未研究透徹。美國(guó)財(cái)政部史蒂夫·姆努欽認(rèn)為，更全面的失業(yè)率應(yīng)該囊括所謂“失意勞動(dòng)者”，這群人認(rèn)為人才市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)沒(méi)有空缺崗位所以放棄找工作。也就是說(shuō)，他認(rèn)為應(yīng)該采用美國(guó)勞工部人口調(diào)查局發(fā)布的替代性失業(yè)率指數(shù)U-5，通常放比常用的U-3失業(yè)率指數(shù)高整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

背景

美國(guó)政府對(duì)失業(yè)者的定義是，在統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)之前四周內(nèi)“主動(dòng)找過(guò)”工作且隨時(shí)可以上崗的無(wú)業(yè)人士。如果要擴(kuò)大統(tǒng)計(jì)范圍，就要把其他可能想找工作的人也算在內(nèi)。人口調(diào)查局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，今年2月“準(zhǔn)失業(yè)”的勞動(dòng)者有160萬(wàn)人，意味著有160萬(wàn)美國(guó)人在統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)之前12個(gè)月內(nèi)找過(guò)工作，但統(tǒng)計(jì)前四周內(nèi)沒(méi)有采取行動(dòng)，其中就包括了37.3萬(wàn)失意勞動(dòng)者。近年來(lái)準(zhǔn)失業(yè)勞動(dòng)者增加，部分原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響持久且深遠(yuǎn)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，準(zhǔn)失業(yè)勞動(dòng)者人數(shù)可能會(huì)減少。短期內(nèi)其他類型的假性失業(yè)人數(shù)可能也很高。今年2月，在美國(guó)2700萬(wàn)兼職勞動(dòng)者之中，希望找全職工作的有520萬(wàn)人。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)走強(qiáng)，過(guò)去不得已提前退休的人或者出于其他原因不再工作的人還可能重回勞動(dòng)者大軍。

結(jié)論

包括美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決策者在內(nèi)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)于美國(guó)接近充分就業(yè)的程度看法不一。有些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，為了抑制通脹，應(yīng)該盡快再次調(diào)升短期利率，并且應(yīng)該加快削減美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的債券倉(cāng)位。有些則認(rèn)為，利率應(yīng)該保持更低水平，主要原因是通脹還低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，官方失業(yè)率可以進(jìn)一步下降，比如降到4%，然后再考慮解決通脹問(wèn)題。另一些人認(rèn)為，跟經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期后的失業(yè)率相比，薪資變化或許更能反映人才市場(chǎng)環(huán)境變化。從薪資數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有加快增長(zhǎng)的跡象，但不夠明確。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最大的擔(dān)憂便是：通脹真正來(lái)臨前，我們可能沒(méi)法知道怎樣算充分就業(yè)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

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The U.S. expansion has put millions of people back to work and economists agree that the economy is now at or close to full employment. But what does that mean exactly? When economists talk about full employment, they don’t mean everybody has a job. And they don’t mean that even the rosiest economic health can cut unemployment to zero. If unemployment falls too much, inflation will rise as employers compete to hire workers and push up wages too fast. To economists, full employment means that unemployment has fallen to the lowest possible level that won’t cause inflation. In the U.S., that was thought to be a jobless rate of about 5 percent — above the February rate of 4.1 percent. Is higher inflation therefore on the way? Or is full employment a smaller number than economists supposed?

The Situation

Since the U.S. recovery began in 2009, total employment rose from 138 million to 154 million by the end of 2017. The number of unemployed has shrunk to fewer than 7 million from 15 million. As the labor market tightens, the Federal Reserve is debating the timing of its next rate hikes. The problem is that there’s more uncertainty than usual over how many people want jobs, making it hard to pinpoint how much unemployment has to be tolerated to fend off inflation. That’s because the last recession was exceptionally severe and has shaken up the labor market in ways that aren’t well understood. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin argues that a fuller unemployment measure should include “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking because they thought there were no openings. That rate, the BLS’s alternative U-5 index, tends to run a full percentage point higher than the commonly cited U-3 index.

The Background

The government counts as unemployed people who don’t have a job, have “actively looked” for one in the previous four weeks, and are available for work. A wider measure of people needing work would count other potential job-seekers as well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 1.6 million people were “marginally attached to the labor force” in February — meaning they wanted a job and had looked for one in the previous 12 months, but not in the past four weeks. This included 373,000 discouraged workers. The number of marginally attached surged in recent years partly because the recession was so deep and long; it’s likely to shrink as the expansion continues. Other kinds of disguised unemployment may be temporarily high as well. In February, 5.2 million of the economy’s 27 million part-time workers wanted a full-time job. A stronger economy might also draw back into the labor force people who retired sooner than they’d intended, or who chose to stop working for other reasons.

The Argument

Economists, including the Fed’s policy makers, are divided about how close the economy is to full employment. To discourage inflation, some think that short-term interest rates should rise again soon and that plans to reduce the central bank’s holdings of bonds should be sped up. Others think that rates should be held lower, not least because inflation is still below the Fed’s target. Some economists think that the official rate of unemployment can fall further — say, to 4 percent — before inflation concerns need to be addressed. Others say that changes in wages may be a clearer indicator of labor-market conditions than the post-crash unemployment rate. Wages are showing only hesitant signs of faster growth. The Fed’s big concern: It’s possible that we won’t know what full employment means until inflation takes off.