茅臺酒的香氣如此獨特，你一聞到就絕對不會認錯。茅臺鎮，風景如畫的小鎮坐落于中國西南，人口雖僅十萬，卻坐擁著全球市值最高的白酒公司。走過茅臺鎮的大街小巷，到處能聞到貴州茅臺的獨特酒香。

但是在路邊大大小小的商店里，所有的茅臺酒幾乎都被搶購而空。每個賣茅臺酒的商店都排著隊。老百姓搶購茅臺酒的狂潮，以及由此導致的庫存短缺，已經蔓延到了全國范圍。

茅臺熾烈的酒香和升值前景，使得市場需求不斷看漲。需求的上揚反過來又推動其市值漲到了1450億美元以上，遠遠超過了英國威士忌巨頭迪阿吉奧的市值。茅臺集團的主打品牌——飛天茅臺每瓶的批發價為969元人民幣（約150美元），零售價更達到1499元。就這樣，飛天茅臺在線上線下的實際售價也經常翻倍。茅臺的官網顯示飛天茅臺已經斷貨了。在京東上，一瓶80年的茅臺已經被炒到196888元（約3萬美元）。

茅臺酒一來口感醇厚，二來純度較高，喝了不上頭，因此深受中國廣大消費者的喜愛。但它獨特的生產工藝也限制了產量。釀酒的谷物和水必須來自茅臺鎮本地，而且純正的茅臺酒漿必須要窯藏至少四年才能上市。也正是由于茅臺產能跟不上需求，宜賓五糧液等規模較小的競爭對手才得以快速在白酒市場上搶占份額。

在存貨賣光的情況下如何繼續令公司保持增長，成了擺在茅臺董事長袁仁國面前的難題。在去年12月接受采訪時，袁仁國表示，面對這種情況，公司計劃基于茅臺品牌推出更多的超高端和定制化產品。

他表示：“兩千年前，中國的名片是絲綢；一千年前，中國的名片是瓷器；500年前，中國的名片是茶葉。現在，中國的名片是擁有自主知識產權的民族品牌，我認為茅臺就是其中之一。”

烈酒之王

雖然老外很少喝茅臺，但中共領導人們對茅臺酒一向是謎之熱愛。1949年，毛澤東等第一代黨和國家領導人們就是舉著茅臺酒慶祝共和國的成立的。中央“反四風”的規定出臺后，政府官員對茅臺酒的需求驟減，但普通老百姓買得越來越多。失之東隅，得之桑榆，茅臺的需求依然在高歌猛進。

今年61歲的袁仁國希望推出更多的定制產品。比如該公司專門為澳門的一家博彩公司定制了一款售價6000港幣的限量版茅臺。另外公司還推出了紀念中國抗戰勝利70周年限量版茅臺，官網售價每瓶1999元——當然它們也早已售罄。另外公司還可以銷售價格更高的“陳年白酒”，也就是窯藏的年份越高，價格越貴，當然利潤也就越高。

袁仁國表示：“由于銷量明年還是這么多，我們認為可以通過這種戰略保持收入增長。”袁仁國認為，通過推出更多高端產品，2018年，公司的營收入有望在2017年的600多億元人民幣的基礎上再增長10%以上。

袁仁國在茅臺已經工作四十年了。他也在嘗試增加產量，不過他表示，憑公司擁有的土地面積，它的白酒年產量到6萬噸就是極限了。雖然這個數字比去年39313噸的產量高53%，但6萬噸也反應了產能擴張的終點。

據桑福德伯恩斯坦公司的分析師估算，未來三到五年，茅臺集團必須將供應量的年增長率限制在4%以內，才能在不消耗太多窯藏陳酒的前提下，保證飛天茅臺品牌的正常銷售。

據該公司估算，飛天茅臺的供應量猛增了38個百分點，這表明茅臺集團為了短期效益，從未來“借”了不少存貨。“這種消耗速度是不能持久的。”該公司分析師尤安·麥克利什表示。

價格飆升

在產能受限的情況下，保持收入增長最簡單的方法當然是提高售價。去年12月，茅臺宣布將售價上調18%，其股價應聲上漲超過8%。不過中國已對高端白酒的價格做出了限制。作為一家國有企業，茅臺集團也必然要響應政府號召，展現一定的公益精神。所以將基礎品牌大幅漲價的做法顯然也是不可持續的。茅臺集團表示，已經要求附屬企業保持價格穩定，要求零售商避免囤貨。

另外，作為省內最盈利的企業之一，茅臺還必須展示一定的社會責任感，尤其是它所在的貴州省還是一個窮省。雖然中國各大企業、工廠早已投入了自動化的大潮，但茅臺集團還是有意地大量使用人力生產，以促進當地就業，就連每瓶飛天茅臺上的紅絲帶都是由工人手工系上去的。另外茅臺集團還剛剛創辦了一所非盈利性的茅臺大學，并且在國內率先設立了白酒釀造學位，以為白酒行業提供更多專業人才。

今年20歲的武遠見（音）剛剛進入茅臺大學就讀，他認為白酒釀造學學位是進入這個熱門產業的敲門磚。“我畢業后想進入茅臺的銷售部門，因為在那兒能賺更多錢。”

現金雄厚

坐擁690億現金，底氣雄厚的茅臺集團還想通過子公司進入保險和資產管理等金融領域。袁仁國還在計劃推動旗下的三個子公司上市，第一個是電商業務，第二個是一家農業公司，第三個則是更為平價的習酒品牌。

彭博社的數據顯示，去年，高盛公司14次調高了茅臺的股價建議，其他分析師對茅臺股票也紛紛看漲。目前，有26位分析師對茅臺股票給出了“買入”評級，3位給出了“持有”評級，沒有一位分析師建議賣出。

雖然茅臺股價去年大幅飆升，但官方媒體新華社卻呼吁投資人謹慎投資，并表示茅臺股價應以較慢的速度上漲。連茅臺集團自己也發表聲明稱，分析師的股價目標和市場估值“過高”了。

不過在短暫下滑后，茅臺股價繼續保持強勢上漲，2017年全年累計漲幅達到了109%。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎?

You know you’re in Maotai when you smell it. The picturesque town of about 100,000 in southwestern China is home to the world’s most valuable liquor company — and the soy-sauce-like scent of the Chinese grain alcohol baijiu, made by the eponymous Kweichow Moutai Co., permeates the main street.

But inside the liquor stores along the road, the distiller’s main brands are all sold out. Lines form wherever bottles are available. The buying frenzy — and resulting inventory shortages — extend nation-wide.

Moutai baijiu’s fiery flavor and potential to appreciate in price is driving the blistering demand. That in turn has pushed its market value to more than $145 billion, well past British whisky giant Diageo Plc. The Chinese firm sells each bottle of its main Flying Fairy brand to distributors for 969 yuan ($150) and sets a suggested resale ceiling of 1,499 yuan, yet they routinely go for double online and off. Its website is out of stock. On shopping site JD.com, an 80-year bottle is listed for 196,888 yuan ($30,000).

Chinese buyers say they like Moutai’s baijiu for its complex flavor and a purity that prevents hangovers — but its special manufacturing process also puts limits on its production. The grain and water used to make it must come from Maotai town and the brew must be buried in urns for at least four years before it’s sold. As the state-owned giant grapples with shortages, smaller rivals like Wuliangye Yibin Co. are already starting to win more business.

All that’s putting Moutai’s chairman, Yuan Renguo, in the difficult position of having to sustain growth even as his company literally runs out of liquor. In a rare interview in December, he said the answer will lie — at least partly — in introducing more ultra-premium and customized products that capitalize on the Moutai brand.

“Two thousand years ago, the Chinese calling card was lions, 1,000 years ago it was Chinese porcelain, 500 years ago it was tea leaves and now it’s local brands with their own intellectual property,” he said. “I believe Moutai is one of these.”

Fiery Liquor

While few outside China buy the liquor, Moutai baijiu is baked into national myth as the drink of choice for Communist Party leaders. It’s what Mao Zedong and his comrades toasted with at the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Just four years ago, the distiller was battling a slowdown as an austerity drive in Beijing slashed demand from government officials. But purchases by ordinary Chinese have more than compensated since then.

Yuan, 61, wants to sell more customized lines, like the HK$6,000 ($767) bottles with the company’s label that was created exclusively for a Macau junket operator. He’s added more limited edition bottles like the ones Moutai created for the 70th anniversary of China’s World War II victory over Japan. That one is listed for 1,999 yuan on the company’s website, though it’s also sold out. Then there’s the opportunity to sell higher priced “mature baijiu” — the older the baijiu, the more expensive (and profitable) it is.

“Since sales volume will stay constant next year, we think we can maintain revenue growth through this strategy,” Yuan said, referring to the more premium products. Moutai expects revenue in 2017 to exceed 60 billion yuan, and to rise more than 10 percent in 2018.

Yuan, who has been at the company for four decades, is also attempting to increase production. But he said Moutai won’t be able to produce more than 60,000 metric tons of its baijiu annually, based on the land it controls. While that’s 53 percent more than last year’s production of 39,313 tons, the numbers reflect the endpoint to potential expansion.

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. estimate Moutai will have to limit its supply growth to 4 percent annually for the next three to five years to be able to sell the Flying Fairy brand sustainably — without using up too much of its stores of aging liquor.

They estimate Moutai boosted supply of Flying Fairy by 38 percent in 2017, implying it borrowed from the future in order to deliver a short-term result. “Continuing this pace of depletion is not sustainable,” said Bernstein analyst Euan McLeish.

Price Hikes

In the face of production limits, the easiest way to keep revenue growing is, of course, to raise prices. An 18 percent price increase announced by Moutai in December drove its shares up more than 8 percent. Still, Beijing puts restrictions on the prices of high-end liquor. And as a state-owned enterprise, Moutai is also expected to display a certain public spirit. So relying too heavily on price increases of its basic brands isn’t sustainable. The company has said it has asked affiliates to keep prices stable and told retailers to prevent hoarding.

There’s also the sense of social responsibility that Moutai must show, particularly as a profitable business in Guizhou, one of China’s poorest provinces. Even as factories around the country embrace automation, its factory floor remains deliberately manpower heavy — the ribbon on each Moutai bottle is still tied by hand. It’s also just opened a non-profit university, Moutai University, the first in China to offer baijiu distillation as its core degree, to create even more experts on the luxury drink.

Wu Yuanjian, 20, who recently enrolled, sees a distillation degree as an entry ticket into a hot business. “I want to join the sales department of Moutai actually,” he said. “You can make more money there.”

Cash Pile

Sitting on a massive cash pile of more than 69 billion yuan, the chairman’s other plans include expanding the company’s finance business through subsidiaries in insurance and asset management. He’s also weighing public listings of three of its units: its e-commerce business, an agricultural arm and another that sells its less-expensive baijiu, known as Xijiu or Xi liquor.

Last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded its price recommendation on Moutai’s shares 14 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show, and other analysts also issued bullish views. At the moment, there are 26 analysts with buy ratings, three with hold ratings and no sell recommendations.

But as the shares surged last year, the state-owned Xinhua News Agency urged investors to be more cautious, saying the stock should rise at a slower pace. The company issued its own statement saying analysts’ share price targets and valuations in the market were “overly high.”

After a brief decline, however, the shares resumed their surge and ended about 109 percent higher for 2017.