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為何英特爾的股價能創18年新高?

為何英特爾的股價能創18年新高?

AARON PRESSMAN 2018年01月31日
一些好消息讓分析師調高了對英特爾的股價預測。

英特爾(Intel)原本勢頭大好,在競爭中高歌猛進,在服務器和數據中心使用的芯片銷量上占據領先地位,直到本月早些時候有關“幽靈”(Spectre)和“熔斷”(Meltdown)安全漏洞的新聞浮出水面。

在人們眼中,這些漏洞對英特爾的危害更甚于它們對超微半導體公司(Advanced Micro Devices)和英偉達(Nvidia)的影響,投資者為此感到恐慌。1月2日,英特爾的股價還在46.85美元,翌日安全問題爆出,股價迅速跳水,一周時間就跌至42.50美元,跌幅達9%。

自那以后,英特爾的股價開始緩慢回升。上周四,公司發布了成績斐然的第四季度財報,并做出了一系列保證和承諾,于是華爾街表示既往不咎。周五上午,英特爾股價猛漲9%,達到49.41美元。這是2000年互聯網泡沫破滅以來公司股價的新高。等到當日收盤時,股價漲幅已經達到11%,報50.08美元。而公眾對于英特爾未來銷售的樂觀態度也讓其競爭對手沾了些光,AMD和英偉達的股價也分別上漲了4%和3%。

公司的第一個承諾直接來自首席執行官科再奇,他在與分析師的電話中向投資者保證,修復安全漏洞是當務之急。他表示:“我們一直把安全性放在首要地位,這次的事件進一步增強了我們開發全球最安全產品的使命感。這將是一段漫長持久的路程,但我們決心致力于此,我對未來迎接挑戰充滿信心。”

迄今為止,英特爾在處理安全問題上成敗參半,一些補丁會降低性能,另一些補丁則導致了電腦崩潰,不得不移除。不過對投資者來說,關鍵在于科再奇表示公司目前沒有發現任何銷量受損的跡象,因此也不會調低銷售額預期。他對分析師表示:“我們有一個預測,新年的頭幾周里我們會仔細驗證,目前還不需要真正調整它。”他說,修復漏洞也不會對開銷或產品成本產生“重大影響”。

英特爾解釋了最近對企業的減稅將如何提高公司今年的利潤,這成為了第二個有用的數據點。更低的稅費將讓英特爾2018年的每股收入增加28美分,首席財務官鮑勃·斯旺稱,調整后利潤將達到每股3.55美元。他表示,公司收入預計將增加4%(不包括拆分的McAfee部門),達到650億美元。這還是在英特爾的PC芯片業務持續萎縮的情況下實現的,不過斯旺也表示,服務器和數據中心使用的芯片銷售額預計將會有“百分之十幾”的增長率。

這些好消息讓一些分析師調高了對英特爾的股價預測。伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的斯塔西·拉斯貢是著名的看跌者,他把自己的預測值從34美元上調到了38美元。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的約瑟夫·摩爾對英特爾也不太熱情,他把預測值從39美元上調至43美元。而瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)的韋杰·拉克什則推薦購買英特爾股票,他把股價預測從47美元上調到了52美元。(財富中文網)

(更新:本文更新于1月26日,文中采用了當日的收盤價。)

譯者:嚴匡正

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Intel was on a roll, powering past the competition to sell more chips for servers and data centers, until news of the Spectre and Meltdown security attacks surfaced earlier this month.

The weaknesses, which were seen as hurting Intel more than competitors Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia, spooked investors. Intel’s stock price dropped rapidly from $46.85 on January 2, the day before the first security issues hit, to as low as $42.50 a week later, a 9% decline.

The stock had been recovering somewhat since then, but after a series of reassurances, promises and good results in Thursday’s fourth quarter earnings release, Wall Street says all is forgiven. Intel shares jumped as much as 9% to a high of $49.41 on Friday morning. That’s the highest price since before the Internet bubble popped back in 2000. By the end of the day, the stock had gained 11% and closed at $50.08. The positive sentiments about future sales extended to Intel’s competitors, as shares of AMD (AMD, +4.19%) gained 4% and Nvidia (NVDA, +2.92%) rose 3%.

The first promise came right up front from Intel CEO Brian Krzanich on a call with analysts, as he assured investors that correcting the security flaws was a top priority. “Security has always been a priority for us and these events reinforce our continuous mission to develop the world’s most secured products,” he said. “This will be an ongoing journey, but we’re committed to the task and I’m confident we’re up to the challenge.”

Intel has had mixed success addressing the security issues so far, with some patches slowing performance and another that had to be withdrawn after causing PC crashes. But critically for investors, Krzanich said the company hasn’t seen any impact on sales and wouldn’t be reducing its sales forecast as a result. “We had a forecast we checked in as we go through the first few weeks of the year and it hasn’t really changed that as we looked at it,” he told the analysts. Fixing the flaws won’t have a “material impact” on spending or product costs, either, he said.

The second helpful data point came as Intel explained how the recent corporate tax cuts would bolster its bottom line this year. Lower taxes will add 28 cents per share to Intel’s earnings in 2018, leading to $3.55 per share in adjusted profits CFO Bob Swan said. Revenue is forecast to grow 4% (excluding the divested McAfee unit) to $65 billion, he said. That will happen even as Intel’s PC chip business continues to shrink, but sales of chips for servers and data centers are expected to increase at a percentage rate in the “mid teens,” Swan said.

The good news prompted several analysts to raise their price targets on Intel (INTC, +10.51%). Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein Research, a noted bear on the stock, pushed his target up to $38 from $34. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore, who also has been less-than-enthusiastic about Intel, hiked his target to $43 from $39. And Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho Securities, who actually recommends buying Intel shares, raised his target to $52 from $47.

(Update: This story was updated on January 26 with closing stock prices.)

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