國際貨幣基金組織預計，今年委內瑞拉的通脹將飆升至13000%，原因是這個陷入危機的國家為了彌補財政赤字而增發貨幣以及對其貨幣的信心喪失殆盡。

這個數字比IMF此前的預期高了五倍以上，也遠遠超出彭博調查中經濟學家的預測中值。IMF西半球事務部主管亞歷杭德羅·維爾納上周四發表的報告稱，IMF估算2017年委內瑞拉物價漲幅超過2400%，居全球首位。

壓在委內瑞拉頭上的除了惡性通脹，還有因為多年管理不善和石油出口不暢造成的長期衰退。為遏制通脹，總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅領導的政府一直拒絕放松外匯管制和物價封頂措施，這進一步加劇了所有商品的短缺程度，從食物到藥品都是如此。

IMF預計，今年委內瑞拉經濟將下跌15%，從而使2013年以來的下滑幅度達到近50%。這拖累了整個拉美地區的經濟反彈——今年拉美經濟預測增幅為1.9%，不包括委內瑞拉則將達到2.5%。維爾納在報告出爐后的新聞發布會上說，雖然委內瑞拉拉低了地區平均水平，但目前對鄰國的影響“非常有限”。

報告指出，墨西哥、中美洲和部分加勒比國家將受益于美國經濟的加速增長，南美的前景也有好轉，原因是巴西和阿根廷擺脫衰退以及該地區出口的原材料價格上漲。

維爾納寫道：“世界經濟和金融市場近期走勢對拉美來說是個好消息。全球增長和貿易呈上升態勢，而且我們預計其勢頭將延續到2018年。大宗商品價格上升有助于該地區經濟復蘇。”

維爾納說，厄瓜多爾走出衰退的速度超過預期，這得益于原油價格上升和更容易進入金融市場。IMF將厄瓜多爾2018年GDP預測增幅從此前的0.6%大幅提升至2.2%。該機構還調高了智利經濟增速，原因是銅價上漲和商業信心增強使經濟加速增長勢頭延續到了2018年。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

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The International Monetary Fund sees Venezuelan inflation spiraling to 13,000 percent this year, as the crisis-torn nation prints money to tackle fiscal deficits and confidence in its currency evaporates.

That’s more than five times the inflation previously projected by the IMF, and way above the median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The fund estimates price increases surpassed 2,400 percent last year, according to a report published Thursday by Alejandro Werner, head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department. That was the fastest in the world.

Venezuela has succumbed to hyperinflation combined with a prolonged recession stemming from years of mismanagement as well as faltering oil exports. In an attempt to rein in inflation, the government of President Nicolas Maduro has refused to loosen foreign-exchange controls and price caps that have exacerbated the short supply of all sorts of products, from food to medicine.

The IMF expects the Venezuelan economy to contract 15 percent this year, leading to a cumulative GDP decline of nearly 50 percent since 2013. That’s holding back the rebound of the entire region; Latin America is expected to grow 1.9 percent this year, or 2.5 percent without Venezuela. While Venezuela suppresses the regional average, at this point the impact on its neighbors’ output is “very limited,” Werner said in a press conference following the report’s release.

Mexico, Central America and parts of the Caribbean will benefit from stronger US growth, while South America’s prospects have improved due to the end of recessions in Brazil and Argentina, as well as higher prices for the raw materials the region exports, according to the report.

“Recent trends in the world economy and financial markets are good news for Latin America,” Werner wrote. “Global growth and trade are on an upswing, and we expect the momentum to continue in 2018. Stronger commodity prices have also helped the region rebound.”

Ecuador also came out of its recession at a faster-than-expected pace, due to higher oil prices and greater access to financial markets, Werner said. The IMF significantly boosted its 2018 GDP outlook for the nation to 2.2 percent, from 0.6 percent previously. The multilateral also gave a boost to its Chile growth estimates, citing faster momentum carrying over into 2018 amid higher copper prices and improving business sentiment.