比特幣上帝（Bitcoin God）上個(gè)月“降臨”。比特幣披薩（Bitcoin Private）1月份“到貨”。比特幣隱私（Bitcoin Private）的發(fā)行日期……仍是個(gè)迷。

它們只是不斷增長(zhǎng)的所謂“分叉”中的幾個(gè)。分叉是比特幣的分裂，開發(fā)者克隆比特幣軟件后，再以新的名稱和新的幣種發(fā)布，而且有可能賦予一些新功能。通常，這樣做的思路都是利用熟悉比特幣的公眾來(lái)大賺一筆，至少賺一筆虛擬貨幣。

據(jù)金融公司研究機(jī)構(gòu)Autonomous Research金融科技策略全球主管萊克斯·索科林介紹，去年大概出現(xiàn)了19個(gè)比特幣分叉，而今年最多有可能再出現(xiàn)50個(gè)。最終這個(gè)數(shù)字甚至還會(huì)更高，原因是比特幣自動(dòng)分叉網(wǎng)站Forkgen（forkgen.tech）已經(jīng)投入運(yùn)營(yíng)，任何粗通編程技術(shù)的人都能通過(guò)這個(gè)網(wǎng)站推出克隆比特幣。對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理阿里·保羅1月14日在推特上預(yù)測(cè)，新分叉將占比特幣和比特幣現(xiàn)金（Bitcoin Cash）目前價(jià)值的10%以上。

進(jìn)行分叉的動(dòng)機(jī)各不相同。一些支持者是為了改進(jìn)比特幣。別的人則打算迅速撈上一票。開發(fā)者通常會(huì)在所謂的“后挖礦”過(guò)程中獲得一些新產(chǎn)生的比特幣，但價(jià)格未必能長(zhǎng)期保持不變。

加密貨幣通用錢包Coinomi允許比特幣持有者在其中存放他們新分叉出來(lái)的比特幣，該公司首席執(zhí)行官喬治·基米沃尼斯說(shuō)：“可惜，目前我們看到的大多數(shù)基于分叉的項(xiàng)目都更多地以撈錢為目的。回顧幾年前的情況，我們或許會(huì)意識(shí)到它們只是那些被價(jià)格上漲蒙蔽了雙眼的投資者孕育出來(lái)的變異體，而不是真的打算為區(qū)塊鏈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)做貢獻(xiàn)。”

基米沃尼斯預(yù)測(cè)，分叉可能很快就會(huì)讓另一種更受歡迎的方法靠邊站，后者被稱為代幣發(fā)行融資，也就是初創(chuàng)公司通過(guò)出售嶄新代幣來(lái)籌集資金。去年代幣發(fā)行融資規(guī)模約為37億美元，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)變得擁擠起來(lái)，規(guī)模較小的發(fā)行融資遇到了困難。

分叉的主要優(yōu)勢(shì)在于成為比特幣這種全球最著名加密貨幣的“新芽”。在一次典型分叉中，現(xiàn)有的比特幣持有人都有權(quán)獲得分叉產(chǎn)生的新幣種，從而有可能給這筆新資產(chǎn)帶來(lái)眾多用戶。大多數(shù)新幣種至少在名稱上有一定的辨識(shí)度，因?yàn)樗鼈兊拿掷锒己小氨忍貛拧弊謽印１热绫忍貛陪@石（Bitcoin Diamond），它的初始價(jià)格很高，但沒(méi)能一直保持下去。

雷特·克賴頓正在準(zhǔn)備即將出現(xiàn)的比特幣隱私分叉，他在接受電話采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“比特幣分叉是一種新的山寨幣。以后會(huì)出現(xiàn)一大堆比特幣分叉，而且它們將開始取代一些排在前100位的山寨幣。”比特幣隱私做出的承諾是和原始比特幣相比，它提供的隱私功能更多。

市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)WinterGreen Research首席執(zhí)行官蘇珊·尤斯蒂斯指出，分叉可能還有助于在中國(guó)等禁止代幣發(fā)行融資的國(guó)家籌集資金。

價(jià)值數(shù)十億

幾年前，創(chuàng)業(yè)者借鑒比特幣的代碼推出了其他加密貨幣，比如萊特幣和后來(lái)的狗幣。這些加密貨幣通過(guò)名字，也經(jīng)常通過(guò)新功能讓自己區(qū)別于比特幣。不過(guò)，雖然目前狗幣的市值為7.70億美元，但新克隆出來(lái)的比特幣現(xiàn)金和比特幣黃金（Bitcoin Gold）已經(jīng)超過(guò)了它。比特幣現(xiàn)金去年8月份問(wèn)世，CoinMarketCap.com的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前它是價(jià)值第四高的加密貨幣，總市值約為280億美元。

加密貨幣研究機(jī)構(gòu)CryptoCompare首席執(zhí)行官查理·海特說(shuō)：“比特幣現(xiàn)金很成功，勢(shì)頭相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁。現(xiàn)在其他交易者也想嘗試一下，看看自己能否弄出同樣的東西來(lái)。”

一次分叉往往可以讓開發(fā)者以及運(yùn)行和支持新軟件的服務(wù)器“農(nóng)場(chǎng)”賺到數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元。比特幣黃金目前單價(jià)約為190美元，它的發(fā)行量為10萬(wàn)枚，所得資金用于支持自身生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和開發(fā)。創(chuàng)造該分叉的核心團(tuán)隊(duì)獲得了大約5000枚比特幣黃金。如果這些加密貨幣升值，對(duì)開發(fā)者來(lái)說(shuō)也是福音。

礦工，也就是用自己的計(jì)算機(jī)和服務(wù)器進(jìn)行加密貨幣交易的人，一直在幫助創(chuàng)造新幣種，其目的是大賺一筆。區(qū)塊鏈金融機(jī)構(gòu)Bitbank和一些中國(guó)礦工是在比特幣核心開發(fā)者杰夫·加齊克創(chuàng)造出聯(lián)合比特幣（UnitedBitcoin）時(shí)購(gòu)置的設(shè)備，聯(lián)合比特幣2017年12月出現(xiàn)了分叉。和其他許多分叉一樣，這個(gè)分叉可以用無(wú)法在比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)上和最先進(jìn)計(jì)算機(jī)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的老設(shè)備挖礦。也就是說(shuō)，如果聯(lián)合比特幣價(jià)格上漲，使用支持該幣種的老機(jī)器的礦工就會(huì)獲得高額收益。

小礦工

許多新分叉都想吸引家庭作坊型礦工，后者已經(jīng)被產(chǎn)業(yè)化的服務(wù)器“農(nóng)場(chǎng)”擠到了邊緣位置。一些分叉允許用圖形處理器（GPU）采礦，這就意味著只要有顯卡，任何人都可以參與進(jìn)來(lái)。

比特幣利息（Bitcoin Interest）核心開發(fā)者尼克·杜利在電話采訪中說(shuō)，想象一下“設(shè)在車庫(kù)里的礦機(jī)。每個(gè)人都有顯卡，而且大多數(shù)人都買得起能挖到一定數(shù)量比特幣的顯卡。”

一些比特幣初始分叉甚至又有了自己的分叉，比特幣現(xiàn)金就即將衍生出比特幣糖果（Bitcoin Candy）。

礦工的支持并不總是足以支撐價(jià)格。一位創(chuàng)造者發(fā)出的郵件顯示，去年12月底出現(xiàn)的SegWit2x [B2X]分叉吸引了一萬(wàn)多名礦工。但比特幣交易所Yobit.net的數(shù)據(jù)表明，B2X的價(jià)格持續(xù)下滑，12月22日以來(lái)其價(jià)值已蒸發(fā)逾90%。

Coinomi CEO基米沃尼斯指出：“我們把選擇權(quán)交給用戶，讓他們決定自己打算使用哪種資產(chǎn)，不用哪種資產(chǎn)。我們并沒(méi)有替他們做出決定。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

?

Bitcoin God arrived last month. Bitcoin Pizza was delivered in January. Bitcoin Private’s issuance date is… still a secret.

They’re just a few of the growing stable of so-called forks — a type of spinoff in which developers clone Bitcoin’s software, release it with a new name, a new coin and possibly a few new features. Often, the idea is to capitalize on the public’s familiarity with Bitcoin to make some serious money, at least virtually.

Some 19 Bitcoin forks came out last year — but up to 50 more could happen this year, according to Lex Sokolin, global director of fintech strategy at Autonomous Research. Ultimately, the number could run even higher now that Forkgen, a site enabling anyone with rudimentary programming skills to launch a clone, is in operation. In a Jan. 14 tweet, hedge fund manager Ari Paul predicted more than 10 percent of the current value of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash will reside in new offshoots.

Motives behind the efforts vary. Some backers try to improve on Bitcoin. Others seek a quick profit. Developers typically score a cache of newly minted coins in a process called post-mining. Yet prices don’t necessarily hold up for long.

“Unfortunately, most fork-based projects we see today are more of a sheer money grab,” said George Kimionis, chief executive officer of Coinomi, a wallet that lets Bitcoin owners collect their new forked coins. “Looking back a few years from now we might realize that they were just mutations fostered by investors blinded by numerical price increases — rather than honest attempts to contribute to the blockchain ecosystem.”

He predicts forking may soon sideline a more popular alternative, initial coin offerings, in which startups raise money by selling entirely new tokens. That market has gotten crowded after raising about $3.7 billion last year, and smaller offerings have struggled.

A fork’s main advantage lies in sprouting from Bitcoin, the world’s most famous cryptocurrency. In a typical fork, all existing Bitcoin owners are eligible for the forked-off coin — giving the new asset a potentially huge number of users. Most coins arrive with at least some name recognition, because they bake “Bitcoin” into their moniker. Take for example, Bitcoin Diamond, with a price that started off strong. It didn’t last forever.

“Bitcoin forks are kind of the new alt coin,” Rhett Creighton, who’s working on the upcoming Bitcoin Private fork, said in a phone interview. “We are going to see now a bunch of Bitcoin forks. And they are going to start replacing some of the top hundred alt coins.” Bitcoin Private promises to offer more privacy features than the original Bitcoin.

Forks can also help startups raise funds in countries such as China, where ICOs have been banned, said Susan Eustis, CEO of WinterGreen Research.

Worth Billions

Years ago, entrepreneurs drew on Bitcoin’s code to launch alternatives such as Litecoin and later Dogecoin, seeking to differentiate themselves in name and often in features. But while Dogecoin now has a $770 million market value, younger clones Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold already dwarf it. Bitcoin Cash, launched in August, is now the fourth most valuable coin, worth a total of about $28 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.com.

“Bitcoin Cash was successful, quite a lot of momentum,” Charlie Hayter, CEO of coin researcher CryptoCompare, said in a phone interview. “Now other traders try to see if they can pull off the same thing.”

A fork can often make millions for its developers as well as the server farms running and supporting the new software. Bitcoin Gold distributed 100,000 coins, currently worth about $190 apiece, to an endowment funding its ecosystem and development. About 5,000 of those coins went to the core team that created the fork. If the coins appreciate, that’s a boon for the developers as well.

Miners — whose computers and servers process cryptocurrency transactions — have been helping create new coins, hoping for fat rewards. Bitbank and some Chinese miners were instrumental when Bitcoin core developer Jeff Garzik created UnitedBitcoin, which forked in December. Like many other forks, it can be mined using older gear that can’t compete with state-of-the-art machines on the Bitcoin network. So if UnitedBitcoin takes off, miners with older machines that support it will be minting money.

Little Miners

Many of the new forks are looking to lure mom-and-pop miners, who’ve been pushed aside by industrial server farms. Some forks allow GPU mining, which means anyone with a graphics card can potentially participate.

Imagine “rigs set up in a garage,” Nick Dooley, a core developer of Bitcoin Interest, said in a phone interview. “Everybody has a graphic card, and most people can afford to purchase one that can mine a certain amount of coins.”

Even some of Bitcoin’s initial forks are getting forked, with Bitcoin Cash getting a proposed derivative, Bitcoin Candy.

Support from miners isn’t always enough to maintain a price. SegWit2x [B2X], a fork from late December, drew more than 10,000 miners, according to an email from one its creators. But B2X has been sliding, losing more than 90 percent of its value since Dec. 22, according to exchange Yobit.net.

“We provide our users with choices and let them decide which assets they are going to use and which not,” Coinomi’s Kimionis said. “We don’t make that decision for them.”