預(yù)測(cè)未來是一件狂妄自大的事情，因此人們有權(quán)對(duì)其提出各種質(zhì)疑。在過去幾年中，我曾經(jīng)做過一些預(yù)測(cè)，并在隨后得到了證實(shí)，例如我在2011年曾預(yù)測(cè)社交媒體將左右美國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉。與此同時(shí)，有一些事情比我預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間晚發(fā)生了幾十年，例如，我曾在1992年預(yù)測(cè)，當(dāng)時(shí)出現(xiàn)的新事物“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)”將推動(dòng)好萊塢電影工作室與電信公司合并。

這些年以來，我意識(shí)到，預(yù)測(cè)未來的最佳方式便是與塑造未來的人進(jìn)行交流。如果你在頂級(jí)咨詢公司工作，而且客戶是領(lǐng)先的科技創(chuàng)新者，那么發(fā)現(xiàn)擁有最大潛在影響力的趨勢(shì)并不是什么難事。

以下是我對(duì)2018年四大頂級(jí)科技趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)：

1. 物聯(lián)網(wǎng)變成區(qū)塊鏈物聯(lián)網(wǎng)

大多數(shù)預(yù)言者所犯的最大錯(cuò)誤便是低估超級(jí)互聯(lián)世界快速增長(zhǎng)的潛力。汽車行業(yè)迎頭趕上需要一定的時(shí)間，因?yàn)樵诘缆泛图佑驼窘ê弥埃緳C(jī)沒法上路。

但如今的突破性創(chuàng)新依賴的是現(xiàn)有的移動(dòng)設(shè)備基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，消費(fèi)者在彈指間便能夠通過這些設(shè)備訪問絕大多數(shù)公司。其中的一個(gè)設(shè)施便是物聯(lián)網(wǎng)，它要求在互聯(lián)設(shè)備上安裝智能感應(yīng)器。這樣，用戶便可藉此做一系列事情，例如要求亞馬遜的Alexa數(shù)字助理關(guān)燈或點(diǎn)比薩。

區(qū)塊鏈作為大熱的加密貨幣比特幣背后的一項(xiàng)基礎(chǔ)技術(shù)，能夠讓物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備更加實(shí)用。它能夠在數(shù)百個(gè)或數(shù)千個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)上創(chuàng)建數(shù)字記錄，從而大幅降低黑客入侵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

物聯(lián)網(wǎng)與區(qū)塊鏈結(jié)合所產(chǎn)生的區(qū)塊鏈物聯(lián)網(wǎng)（BIoT）將催生一整套新服務(wù)和新業(yè)務(wù)。例如，BIoT可用于跟蹤醫(yī)藥的發(fā)貨情況，并打造智慧城市，因?yàn)榛ヂ?lián)供熱系統(tǒng)能夠更好地控制能源利用，而互聯(lián)的交通信號(hào)燈能夠更好地管控高峰期間的車流量。

2018年，各大公司將開始使用應(yīng)用編程界面或軟件，來連接不同的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)和計(jì)算機(jī)服務(wù)。借助區(qū)塊鏈物聯(lián)網(wǎng)，獲取倉(cāng)庫(kù)傳感器數(shù)據(jù)將像手機(jī)上網(wǎng)那樣方便。當(dāng)制造商、零售商、監(jiān)管方和運(yùn)輸公司能夠?qū)崟r(shí)獲取來自于產(chǎn)品、卡車和船舶內(nèi)置感應(yīng)器的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，配送鏈上的各方都將受益于他們此前無法獲得的信息。借助BIoT，各個(gè)公司和消費(fèi)者無需再擔(dān)心其區(qū)塊鏈上最寶貴的數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)被黑客竊取。

2. 金融技術(shù)的復(fù)興

盡管比特幣和區(qū)塊鏈成為了2017年的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)，但社交和移動(dòng)支付已徹底改變了金融市場(chǎng)。中國(guó)的年移動(dòng)支付總額如今已經(jīng)超過了5萬億美元。

隨著清算所功能在區(qū)塊鏈的幫助下不斷提速，以及結(jié)算交由智能合約處理，支付鏈的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)都將迎來巨大變化。2018年，人們會(huì)通過生物特征，例如面部識(shí)別、語(yǔ)音識(shí)別和指紋，來大幅提高購(gòu)物速度，例如，上述技術(shù)可以讓人們做到無卡結(jié)賬。除此之外，你還可以用智能手機(jī)掃描虹膜，以便讓商家驗(yàn)證你的身份，也就是所謂的虹膜支付技術(shù)。有膽識(shí)的預(yù)言家甚至還會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)，一些主要零售商將加入加密貨幣大軍，并在明年發(fā)行其自有的安全貨幣。

金融科技在2018年也將變得更加綠色。隨著加密貨幣總市值超過3000億美元，如今量子計(jì)算已成為投資界的新寵，該技術(shù)涉及利用亞原子級(jí)別的能量應(yīng)變來運(yùn)行計(jì)算功能，比當(dāng)今微處理器的速度快十億倍。

據(jù)估計(jì)，挖掘當(dāng)今的虛擬貨幣，例如比特幣，每年所需要的電力比159個(gè)國(guó)家所使用能源的總和還要多。隨著加密貨幣碳足跡的迅速增長(zhǎng)，量子計(jì)算有可能大幅降低當(dāng)前所有比特幣處理計(jì)算機(jī)所消耗的電量（約28TWhs）。

當(dāng)前，分析師預(yù)計(jì)，隨著傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)開始利用更加高效的支付系統(tǒng)、貸款流程和信貸工具，來交易加密貨幣和其他類似于傳統(tǒng)法定貨幣的數(shù)字資產(chǎn)，各大銀行在未來兩年中都將從區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)支撐的加密貨幣業(yè)務(wù)中斬獲超過10億美元的年收入。減少比特幣生產(chǎn)能耗這種環(huán)保的做法將帶來更加環(huán)保的收益。

3. 增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)成為主流

在10年前智能手機(jī)還未面世時(shí)，每天花5個(gè)小時(shí)的時(shí)間看手機(jī)對(duì)于大多數(shù)人來說是不可思議的事情。2018年，低頭看手機(jī)的趨勢(shì)將開始出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。

移動(dòng)游戲《Pokémon Go》已經(jīng)揭開了10億美元的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)娛樂需求，引發(fā)了主流品牌的關(guān)注。得益于廉價(jià)增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)眼鏡的面世，我們的手機(jī)將回到我們的口袋中，而頭戴顯示器（HUD）將改善人們工作、購(gòu)物和娛樂的方式。

如今，人們最熟悉的HUD莫過于戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)飛行員在其護(hù)目鏡和擋風(fēng)玻璃上所看到的測(cè)量?jī)x表。它將成為消費(fèi)眼鏡的一項(xiàng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。例如，試想一下漫步于外國(guó)街頭的場(chǎng)景，人們可以用時(shí)髦的眼鏡將所有的店面標(biāo)識(shí)立即翻譯成英語(yǔ)。

增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)利用與客戶身材相匹配的模特，定制客戶的在店體驗(yàn)，同時(shí)向客戶盡可能多地展現(xiàn)可與任何網(wǎng)店相媲美的虛擬庫(kù)存。商戶可通過打包的形式來打造增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)體驗(yàn)，這樣，演示視頻便可在客戶查看貨架上的產(chǎn)品時(shí)播放，或者明星代言人會(huì)魔法般地出現(xiàn)在過道中，向客戶推薦該產(chǎn)品。虛擬快閃店可隨時(shí)出現(xiàn)在任何人群密集的地段（在體育場(chǎng)、繁忙的街頭，甚至是地鐵）。這些沒有實(shí)體的零售網(wǎng)點(diǎn)將為商戶帶來新的機(jī)遇，從而在任何配備有可訪問網(wǎng)絡(luò)帶寬的地點(diǎn)，打造極具吸引力的購(gòu)物體驗(yàn)。

借助新的光無線通信Li-Fi，數(shù)據(jù)傳輸速度將達(dá)到Wi-Fi的100倍。這種新技術(shù)將把高分辨率的虛擬物體引入實(shí)體店。消費(fèi)者可通過Li-Fi和現(xiàn)實(shí)增強(qiáng)技術(shù)，大規(guī)模地瀏覽店面無窮無盡的虛擬庫(kù)存。

只需揮揮手，汽車銷售人員便可以改變經(jīng)銷商展廳中汽車的型號(hào)、顏色和定制特色。真實(shí)、虛擬物體的結(jié)合能夠提升所有戶外活動(dòng)的體驗(yàn)。從HUD中觀看賽場(chǎng)球員將賦予體育場(chǎng)21世紀(jì)的氣息。試想一下，在體育場(chǎng)觀看現(xiàn)場(chǎng)足球賽事、追逐你所喜愛的球員時(shí)，球員上方會(huì)出現(xiàn)個(gè)性化的數(shù)據(jù)信息。在家里觀看體育節(jié)目時(shí)，人們可以在起居室通過增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)感受真人大小的拳擊賽事。增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的真正價(jià)值在于為人們提供他們所需的信息，而且無需人們?nèi)タ桃庖蟆?

對(duì)于很多人來說，2018年將成為增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)生活的開端。

4. 2018年將成為機(jī)器人年

每當(dāng)我們訂機(jī)票或確認(rèn)銀行賬戶余額時(shí)，我們都已經(jīng)習(xí)慣與機(jī)器人說話。使用自然語(yǔ)言的機(jī)器人將走出自動(dòng)客戶服務(wù)代理的范疇，成為日常生活中必不可少的一部分。

家庭機(jī)器人不僅能夠應(yīng)對(duì)各種要求，還能夠提供及時(shí)的信息提醒，例如“該吃藥了。”你甚至?xí)蔀樘眉X德這樣的人物，而移動(dòng)機(jī)器人將成為桑丘·潘沙這樣恭敬的仆人，隨時(shí)待命，日夜守候。

試想一下，一個(gè)機(jī)器人在你耳邊悄悄說“不要購(gòu)買，否則你的貸款額度就要超了。”或“你的停車計(jì)時(shí)器將在兩分鐘后開始計(jì)費(fèi)。”機(jī)器人將成為兒童的保姆，擔(dān)任金融投資顧問，并成為所信任品牌所提供的無所不在的附加值。由于手機(jī)將停留在我們的口袋中，各大企業(yè)在2018年將有可能投入更多的物力來打造聊天機(jī)器人，而不是應(yīng)用，從而為客戶提供更好的服務(wù)。

未來總有你意想不到的地方

盡管我認(rèn)為這四個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)是十分符合現(xiàn)實(shí)的，但其到來的步伐將受制于一系列因素，包括網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全，政府監(jiān)管以及最重要的一點(diǎn)——消費(fèi)者適應(yīng)和接收變化的能力。在這個(gè)創(chuàng)新無止盡的時(shí)代，唯一絕對(duì)精準(zhǔn)的預(yù)測(cè)就是：與現(xiàn)在相比，未來將發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）?

作者杰·薩米特是德勤數(shù)字現(xiàn)實(shí)業(yè)務(wù)的獨(dú)立副主席，也是暢銷書《顛覆你！》（Disrupt You!）的作者。

譯者：馮豐

審稿：夏林

Predicting the future requires hubris, and it should therefore be met with more than a terabyte of skepticism. In past years, I’ve made some calls that have proved prescient like predicting way back in 2011 that social media would determine the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, some took decades longer than I had foreseen such as my 1992 prediction that this new thing called the Internet would lead Hollywood studios to merge with telecommunications companies.

Over the years, I’ve learned that the best way to predict the future is to hang out with the people creating it. When you work with a top consultancy and have leading technology innovators as clients, it’s pretty easy to recognize trends that have the greatest potential impact.

Here are my top four tech trends for 2018:

1. IoT becomes BIoT

The biggest mistake most prognosticators make is underestimating the potential for fast growth in our hyper-connected world. Automobiles took time to catch on because would-be drivers had to wait for roads and gas stations to be built.

But today’s disruptive innovations rely on existing infrastructure for mobile devices that puts most companies just a few clicks from billions of consumers. One of those is the Internet of things (IoT), which involves adding smart sensors to connected devices so that users can do things like ask Amazon’s Alexa digital assistant to turn off the lights or order a pizza.

But blockchain, one of the underlying technologies for the hot cryptocurrency bitcoin, can make IoT devices even more useful. It creates a digital record across hundreds or thousands of computers, vastly reducing the risk of hacking.

Combining IoT with blockchain —or BIoT—ushers in a whole host of new services and businesses. For example, BIoT can be used to track shipments of pharmaceuticals and to create smart cities in which connected heating systems better controls energy use and connected traffic lights better manage rush hour.

In 2018, companies will begin to use Application Programming Interfaces, or software used to connect different databases and computer services. Combined with the blockchain Internet of things, it will be as easy to get data from sensors in a warehouse as accessing websites on our mobile phones. When manufacturers, retailers, regulators, and transportation companies have real-time data from sensors imbedded on products, trucks and ships, everyone in the distribution chain can benefit from insights that they were previously unable to get. With BIoT, companies and consumers can also be assured that their most valuable data on the blockchain cannot be hacked.

2. The fintech renaissance

While bitcoin and blockchain were grabbing the headlines in 2017, social and mobile payments have fundamentally changed the financial markets. In China, mobile payment volumes now exceed $5 trillion annually.

All aspects of the payments chain are open to disruption as blockchain speeds clearing house functions while smart contracts handle settlements. In 2018, look for biometrics such as facial recognition, voice ID, and fingerprints to help make shopping far quicker —by eliminating the need to swipe a credit card at checkout, for instance. Instead, you will be able to verify your identity for a merchant scanning your eyes with your smartphone, in what’s known as a retinal payment. A bold clairvoyant could even predict that some major retailers will hop on the cryptocurrency bandwagon and issue their own secure currency next year.

Fintech will likely also become greener in 2018. With cryptocurrencies reaching over $300 billion in total value, there is now a financial incentive for investments into quantum computing, which involves using the behavior of energy at a subatomic level to process computing functions at a billion times faster than today’s microprocessors.

By some estimates, mining today’s cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, requires more electricity annually than the amount of energy used in 159 countries. With cryptocurrency’s carbon footprint rapidly growing, quantum computing has the potential to greatly reduce the estimated 28TWhs of electricity consumed by all of the current computers processing bitcoin.

Analysts now anticipate that banks will derive over $1 billion annually from blockchain-based cryptocurrencies within the next two years as traditional financial institutions start treating cryptocurrencies and other digital assets similar to traditional fiat currencies with more efficient payment systems, loan processing, and credit instruments. Going green by using less energy to create bitcoins, will translate into earning more green.

3. Augmented reality goes mainstream

Before smartphones existed 10 years ago, most people would consider spending five hours daily staring at your phone as crazy. In 2018, the bent-neck trend will start to reverse itself.

The mobile game Pokémon Go has unleashed a billion-dollar demand for augmented reality entertainment, and major brands are taking notice. Thanks to the introduction of affordable augmented reality glasses, our phones will remain in our pockets and Heads Up Displays (HUD) will improve how we work, shop, and play.

HUDs, best known today as the instrument gauges that fighter pilots monitor on their visors or windshields, will become a standard in consumer eyeglasses. Imagine walking down the street in a foreign country, for example, and having all of the store signs instantly translated into English thanks to your trendy sunglasses.

AR will customize in-store experiences with mannequins that match your body type and display enough virtual inventory to rival any online site. Merchants will create AR experiences with their packaging so that demonstration videos can appear when you look at the product on the shelf or celebrity spokespeople can magically stand in the aisle to pitch the product. Virtual pop-up stores can be built to appear anywhere that crowds are gathered (in a stadium, a busy street corner, or even inside a subway). These non-brick and mortar retail locations will bring new opportunities for merchants to create engaging shopping experiences anywhere with accessible bandwidth.

Li-Fi, a new light-base wireless connection with data speeds 100 times that of Wi-Fi, will bring high-definition virtual objects into stores. With Li-Fi and AR, consumers can see limitless virtual inventory in store, at scale.

With just a wave of your hand, a car salesperson can change the model, color, and customized features of the car “sitting” on the dealership’s showroom floor. Combining real and virtual objects can enhance experiences for all out-of-home activities. Sports stadiums will be brought into the 21st century with personalized HUDs of players on the field. Imagine watching a live football game in the stadium and seeing personalized stats floating above the fantasy sports players you follow. When watching sports from home, AR has the potential to bring the excitement of life-size boxing matches into your living room. The real promise of AR is to bring people the information they need without having to ask for it.

For many, 2018 will be the start of living an augmented life.

4. 2018 is the year of the bots

We all have gotten use to speaking with bots whenever we call to make airline reservations or to confirm our bank account balances. The use of natural language bots will expand from use as automated customer service agents to become routine for daily living.

Home bots will do more than just respond to requests, to being able to provide timely information such as, “It’s time to take your medicine.” You may even feel like Don Quixote as mobile bots become dedicated Sancho Panza servants—always at the ready and by your side.

Imagine a bot whispering in your ear “don’t make that purchase or you will be over your credit limit” or “your parking meter expires in two minutes.” Bots will help with the children, act as financial investment advisors, and be an omnipresent value-add from the brands you trust. With phones staying in our pockets, businesses will likely spend more on creating chatbots in 2018 than on apps in an effort to better serve their customers.

There’s always room for the future to unfold unpredictably

As timely as I believe these four predictions to be, the pace of disruption can be slowed by a host of issues, including cyber security, government regulation, and, most importantly, consumers’ ability to adapt and accept change. In this era of endless innovation, the only prediction you can be 100% assured of is that future will look very different from today.

Jay Samit is independent vice chairman of Deloitte’s Digital Reality practice and author of the bestselling book “Disrupt You!”