零售商們借助經(jīng)濟(jì)的走強(qiáng)，以及對亞馬遜（Amazon.com）時(shí)代的努力適應(yīng)，似乎已經(jīng)開始擺脫多年來的萎靡。

塔吉特（Target）和科爾士百貨（Kohl’s）等公司在電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域投資了數(shù)十億美元，用于改造門店來支持網(wǎng)絡(luò)訂單等。如今，它們終于開始獲取回報(bào)。沃爾瑪（Walmart）的策略也從防御轉(zhuǎn)向進(jìn)攻，在技術(shù)領(lǐng)域大規(guī)模投資，提高了數(shù)十萬家門店的員工收入，還對食品雜貨的陳列方式進(jìn)行了大幅改進(jìn)。甚至連Gap Inc、American Eagle Outfitters和Abercrombie & Fitch 等服裝連鎖店也有了更好的業(yè)績。

不過隨著2017年零售業(yè)的大洗牌結(jié)束，幸存者們需要向消費(fèi)者和華爾街表明，在存活下來并從一個(gè)又一個(gè)零售業(yè)危機(jī)中反彈以外，他們可以做到更多。他們已經(jīng)有了幾年時(shí)間來適應(yīng)和應(yīng)對亞馬遜的威脅，弄清自己的定位。任何在2018年表現(xiàn)不佳的零售商，都只能歸咎于自己的高管，再?zèng)]有其他借口了。

梅西（Macy’s）等百貨公司多年來都在討論變革和新舉措，明年是時(shí)候行動(dòng)起來了，否則，你懂的。沃爾瑪如今勢頭正盛，有人甚至認(rèn)為他們勉強(qiáng)可以和亞馬遜掰掰手腕，不過他們也要證明自己能在網(wǎng)絡(luò)消費(fèi)者的心目中占有類似的分量。Gap和Abercrombie等公司花費(fèi)了數(shù)年時(shí)間來加速生產(chǎn)、調(diào)整運(yùn)營，以便靈活地應(yīng)對潮流趨勢。而Tapestry’s旗下品牌蔻馳（Coach）、邁克·柯爾（Michael Kors）和蒂芙尼（Tiffany & Co）等奢侈品牌也大刀闊斧改進(jìn)產(chǎn)品。所以，如今是時(shí)候看看回報(bào)了。

以下是我們將在2018年關(guān)注的一些零售商。

1）沃爾瑪下一個(gè)要購買或入主的會(huì)是哪家公司？

沃爾瑪在2017年收購了Bonobos、Modcloth和Moosejaw，由于公司試圖阻擊亞馬遜在時(shí)尚界的進(jìn)軍，吸引更多購物者來到他們收購的Jet.com或自家門店，他們可能會(huì)繼續(xù)收購重視數(shù)字化的時(shí)尚品牌。這家平價(jià)超市也將為加拿大零售集團(tuán)HBC旗下表現(xiàn)掙扎的Lord & Taylor開設(shè)網(wǎng)店，此舉可能也會(huì)應(yīng)用于其他品牌，因?yàn)槲譅柆斣噲D像其他許多亞洲的競爭對手那樣，成為一家網(wǎng)上商城。

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Retailers seem to be pulling out of their years-long malaise, helped by a strong economy and their own efforts to finally adapt to the Amazon.com (AMZN, +0.48%)world.

Companies like Target (TGT, -1.05%)and Kohl’s (KSS, -2.78%) are finally starting to reap the dividends of billions in investments in e-commerce, such as retrofitting stores so they support online orders. Walmart has gone from defensive mode to offense, with big investments in tech to go with the raises its given to hundreds of thousands of store employees and major improvements to how its grocery offerings are presented. Even apparel chains like Gap Inc (GPS, -1.35%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, -1.21%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, -4.20%) are doing better.

But with the major shakeout in retail of 2017 out of the way, survivors will have to show customers and Wall Street that they can do more than just survive and bounce from one retail crisis to another. They’ve had several years now to adapt and react to Amazon’s threat and figure out what they stand for. Any retailer that has a poor 2018 has no one to blame but its own executives.

Department stores like Macy’s (M, -4.51%) have been talking changes and new initiatives for years, so next year is the time to put up or well, you know. Walmart is flying high now, even seen as an underdog to Amazon, but has to show that it can truly be a counterweight to its rival in online shoppers’ consideration set. The likes of Gap and Abercrombie have had several years to speed up their production process and shake up operations to be more flexible in reacting to fashion trends. And luxury players like Tapestry’s (TPR, -0.69%)Coach brand, Michael Kors, and Tiffany & Co (TIF, +0.06%) have made major moves to refine their offerings. So now is the time to see the payoff.

Here are some of the retail stories we will be watching in 2018.??

1) Who Will Walmart.com Buy or Host Next?

Walmart, coming off a year of acquisitions like those of Bonobos, Modcloth and Moosejaw, will likely continue to buy hip digital-first brands as it looks to counter Amazon’s moves in the fashion world and attract more well-heller shoppers to Jet.com if not its own site. The discounter will also begin hosting an online store for HBC’s struggling Lord & Taylor chain, a move that likely presages lining up other brands as Walmart tries to become an online mall as many of its Asian rivals have.

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據(jù)傳聞，由于投資者不太愿意以諾德斯特龍（Nordstrom Inc.）創(chuàng)始者希望的價(jià)格將其退市，該公司在受傷之下，暫停了私有化的進(jìn)程。不過該計(jì)劃可能在2018年重啟，誰能責(zé)怪他們呢——由于投資者對百貨超市的前景不太看好，盡管這家高端零售商的業(yè)績有所提高，但是股價(jià)卻萎靡不振。類似的，如果Dillard’s、HBC和Barnes & Noble等零售商開始考慮私有化的可能性，你也不用感到驚訝。

事實(shí)上，華爾街的許多投資者認(rèn)為，零售商的房地產(chǎn)和銷量產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金才是價(jià)值所在，而基礎(chǔ)的零售業(yè)務(wù)對股價(jià)幾乎沒有任何貢獻(xiàn)。不過與投資者不指望獲取大量利潤的亞馬遜不同，許多傳統(tǒng)零售商沒有獲得華爾街的允許去承擔(dān)很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，或進(jìn)行大幅調(diào)整來進(jìn)行現(xiàn)代化。退市可以讓他們有更大的空間放手去做。

3）折扣店會(huì)在2018年會(huì)舉步維艱嗎？

T.J. Maxx和Marshalls的母公司TJX 11月的財(cái)報(bào)顯示，他們的季度可比銷售額首次出現(xiàn)下滑。許多觀察者都懷疑這家折扣店巨頭在積極擴(kuò)張門店多年之后要回歸正常。一個(gè)疲軟的季度，現(xiàn)在還不足以證明趨勢變了。不過看看諾德斯特龍的Rack連鎖店和HBC的Saks Off Fifth連鎖店，他們也都表現(xiàn)掙扎。Neiman Marcus’也決定把Last Call直銷店的數(shù)量關(guān)閉近一半。這很容易讓你開始懷疑，折扣和直銷的概念是否已經(jīng)在過去幾年的瘋狂開店之后耗盡了發(fā)展空間。

對于該領(lǐng)域而言，新年是一個(gè)證明他們可以適應(yīng)各種激烈競爭的機(jī)會(huì)。其中一些競爭來自梅西百貨的Backstage折扣店概念，以及百貨商場和品牌更好的規(guī)劃。另外，還有一些品牌也開始對折扣店日益厭惡。確實(shí)，拉爾夫·勞倫（Ralph Lauren）和邁克·柯爾等品牌已經(jīng)明確表示他們希望撤出折扣店，那里無法產(chǎn)生持續(xù)的銷量，卻影響了品牌的光環(huán)。

4）破產(chǎn)和關(guān)店的情況會(huì)更多出現(xiàn)

零售業(yè)的財(cái)富增加無法惠及所有公司，許多債臺(tái)高筑的連鎖店仍然在遭遇銷售額的跳水。盡管2017年類似的清洗不太可能出現(xiàn)，但放血現(xiàn)象還將繼續(xù)。正如CNBC在本月早些時(shí)候報(bào)道的，Moody’s所謂的觀察列表，即那些擁有違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的零售商，已經(jīng)從2017年夏天的22家增加到了27家，而惠譽(yù)評級(jí)公司（Fitch Ratings）也預(yù)測違約數(shù)會(huì)在2018年上升。

Nordstrom (JWN, -1.09%) has hit the pause button on its go-private initiative, reportedly hurt by tepid interest by investors to take it off the stock market at the price the founding family wants. But the Nordstroms will likely be back in 2018 and who can blame them—the high end retailer’s stock has been brought down by worries about the department store sector’s woes, despite its own better results. Similarly, don’t be surprised if retailers like Dillard’s, HBC and Barnes & Noble at least explore going private.

The truth is that many on Wall Street only see value in retailers’ real estate and the cash their sales generate, with the basic retail business contributing almost nothing to their shares. So unlike Amazon, which investors don’t expect to make mounds of profit, many traditional retailers don’t get the latitude from Wall Street to take big risks and make the major moves that would modernize them. Being private could give them more latitude to do so.

3) Will Off-Price Stumble in 2018?

When T.J. Maxx and Marshalls parent TJX (TAX, -1.34%) reported the chains’ first quarterly comparable sales drop in memory in November, many observers wondered whether the off-price juggernaut was running its course after years of aggressive store expansion. Now one soft quarter does not a new trend make. But when you look at how Nordstrom’s Rack chain and HBC’s Saks Off Fifth stores are also struggling, as well as Neiman Marcus’ decision to close almost half of its Last Call outlet stores, it’s easy to wonder whether the off-price/outlet concept has reached its peak after an incredible number of store openings in the last few years.

The new year will be a chance for the sector to show that it can adapt to all the intense competition, some of it coming from concepts like Macy’s Backstage, along with better planning by department stores and brands and growing aversion from some brands. Indeed, some names such as Ralph Lauren and Michael Kors have said clearly they want to dial back their presence in off-price retail, an avenue that does generate consistent sales but also hurts a brand’s aura.

4) More bankruptcies and store closings are likely

Retail’s improving fortunes won’t lift all boats and many debt-laden chains are still seeing sharp sales declines. So while a purge akin to 2017’s unlikely, the bloodletting will continue. As CNBC reported earlier this month, Moody’s so-called watch list, where it is tracking retailers at risk of defaulting, has risen to 27 companies from 22 companies this summer, while Fitch Ratings expects defaults to rise next year.