要想了解消費(fèi)者習(xí)慣的變化是怎樣顛覆了整個(gè)零售行業(yè)的，你只需要看看奧蘭多市的高端商場(chǎng)佛羅里達(dá)購(gòu)物中心就可以了。這家商場(chǎng)是由商場(chǎng)界巨頭西蒙地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)控股的。幾年前，由于它“主打”的幾家百貨商超客流下滑，佛羅里達(dá)購(gòu)物中心便將一家Lord & Taylor百貨店拆成了三家規(guī)模稍小的商店。三年前，在諾德斯特龍的租約到期后，迪克體育用品店進(jìn)駐了它原來(lái)的位置。同時(shí)，另一家知名百貨品牌薩克斯第五大道則變成了一個(gè)美食城。

穆迪投資者服務(wù)部的結(jié)構(gòu)融資分析師鮑伯·帕爾茨認(rèn)為，佛羅里達(dá)購(gòu)物中心是研究消費(fèi)者購(gòu)物習(xí)慣轉(zhuǎn)變的一個(gè)很好的案例。帕爾茨近日寫(xiě)道：“百貨店已經(jīng)不再像10到15年前那樣是商場(chǎng)的‘客流擔(dān)當(dāng)’了。”包括佛羅里達(dá)購(gòu)物中心在內(nèi)的許多大型商場(chǎng)也在紛紛尋找其他零售商填補(bǔ)空白。

實(shí)體零售的日薄西山早已不是什么秘密。標(biāo)普零售精選指數(shù)連續(xù)三年走勢(shì)疲軟，年均跌幅達(dá)到1%左右。根據(jù)破產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)網(wǎng)BankruptcyData的數(shù)據(jù)，從2017年初到12月中旬，雖然美國(guó)的總體破產(chǎn)數(shù)較去年下跌了37%之多，但仍有包括玩具反斗城在內(nèi)的八家大型零售公司申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。雖然隨著圣誕購(gòu)物季的到來(lái)，零售業(yè)的營(yíng)收可能出現(xiàn)較大回升，但高緯物業(yè)公司的零售與房地產(chǎn)分析師加里克·布朗卻悲觀地表示，2018年的零售業(yè)只會(huì)跌向更寒冷的嚴(yán)冬，百貨商超更是很多悲觀人士的重點(diǎn)觀察對(duì)象。

人們往往認(rèn)為，傳統(tǒng)零售之所以行將就木，原因是在線(xiàn)購(gòu)物和實(shí)體購(gòu)物本質(zhì)上是一場(chǎng)零和游戲，在亞馬遜等電商的虹吸效應(yīng)下，實(shí)體店沒(méi)有客源也就是順理成章的事了。然而事實(shí)并非這樣簡(jiǎn)單。從數(shù)據(jù)上看，實(shí)體零售還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)談不上消亡。據(jù)福雷斯特研究公司估算，2017年，有87%的零售銷(xiāo)量是在線(xiàn)下實(shí)現(xiàn)的。只不過(guò)消費(fèi)者的忠誠(chéng)度改變了。在這個(gè)網(wǎng)上能到買(mǎi)一切的時(shí)代，消費(fèi)者更喜歡的是那些物價(jià)便宜而且還能提供線(xiàn)上選擇的實(shí)體零售商。這種趨勢(shì)當(dāng)然給零售業(yè)帶來(lái)了巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，但對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，他們現(xiàn)在也有了押寶一些非常便宜的零售股的機(jī)會(huì)。

一家零售商今天是盈利的，不代表它明天也能成功。俗話(huà)說(shuō)“百足之蟲(chóng)，死而不僵”，現(xiàn)在的百貨商超仍然能生產(chǎn)出大量的現(xiàn)金，足夠他們保持“死而不僵”的狀態(tài)幾十年。美國(guó)最大的連鎖百貨商店梅西百貨就存在這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。比如去年秋天，梅西百貨稱(chēng)，1至9月該公司的凈現(xiàn)金流強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)了26%。消息一出，該公司的股票也跟著大漲。但是很多人沒(méi)有注意到，梅西百貨之所以取得這樣搶眼的成績(jī)，跟它之前關(guān)掉了大約100家店不無(wú)關(guān)系。這100家店約占梅西旗下門(mén)店總數(shù)的15%，面臨長(zhǎng)期的銷(xiāo)售額下滑，這也是不得已的選擇。另外梅西百貨的債務(wù)與銷(xiāo)售額之比已達(dá)27%，如果其銷(xiāo)售額下滑的趨勢(shì)加速，必將為企業(yè)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重問(wèn)題。花旗銀行分析師保羅·勒茹茲指出，為了削減債務(wù)，梅西百貨很可能需要減少股市分紅（其目前的股息為5.85%）。

對(duì)于那些想在零售板抄底的股民，一些分析師也給了一個(gè)相對(duì)簡(jiǎn)單的方法：找找那些債務(wù)相對(duì)較低，而且正在發(fā)展全渠道的公司——所謂“全渠道”是指零售商既可以在線(xiàn)下也可以在線(xiàn)上服務(wù)消費(fèi)者。另外，股民也最好不要選擇那些在90年代到00年代“商場(chǎng)熱”期間把攤子鋪得太快的公司。

從這些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看，總部位于西雅圖的諾德斯特龍算是一家相當(dāng)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的公司（雖然它在佛羅里達(dá)中心遭遇了一點(diǎn)挫折）。它是現(xiàn)在美國(guó)少量門(mén)店數(shù)量還在增加的百貨商店之一，其平價(jià)品牌Nordstrom Rack也吸引了不少對(duì)折扣敏感的消費(fèi)者。目前諾德斯特龍已有117家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)門(mén)店和216家Rack門(mén)店。另外諾德斯特龍也在不遺余力地進(jìn)行線(xiàn)上投資，目前它的電商收入已經(jīng)超過(guò)了公司總收入的20%，給了諾德斯特龍一個(gè)“創(chuàng)造未來(lái)的機(jī)會(huì)”。由于該品牌的創(chuàng)始家族試圖將公司私有化的企圖失敗，諾德斯特龍的股票今年跌幅超過(guò)21%。不過(guò)以明年15倍的預(yù)期市盈率看，它的股票還是相當(dāng)有吸引力的。

百貨商超的全線(xiàn)潰退，卻給一些特色商超營(yíng)造了機(jī)會(huì)。五年前，投資者甚至不確定電子產(chǎn)品零售商百思買(mǎi)還能不能活下來(lái)。但是在降價(jià)、建立全渠道、削減支出等一系列改革后，百思買(mǎi)再度成了投資者的寵兒。雖然對(duì)電商的依賴(lài)使百思買(mǎi)的利潤(rùn)被吃掉了不少，但它的股票卻在過(guò)去三年里上漲了75%。花旗銀行分析師凱特·麥克沙恩認(rèn)為，百思買(mǎi)的案例為其他身陷困境的零售商提供了“很好的藍(lán)圖”。百思買(mǎi)最近還宣布，要在四年內(nèi)將營(yíng)收提高9%——這對(duì)現(xiàn)下的實(shí)體店來(lái)說(shuō)，可謂是相當(dāng)可觀的增長(zhǎng)速度。而且它明年的預(yù)期市盈率也比標(biāo)普500低了29%。

與沃爾瑪相比，塔吉特百貨的表現(xiàn)似乎要相對(duì)疲軟些，這在一定程度上也是由于其生鮮食雜業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)緩慢的緣故。不過(guò)在過(guò)去兩年中，它的在線(xiàn)銷(xiāo)售額年均增長(zhǎng)近30%。另外塔吉特百貨也在吸引從其他鄰近的百貨商超流失的消費(fèi)者。同時(shí)，塔吉特百貨還在對(duì)門(mén)店進(jìn)行改建，在人口稠密地區(qū)建立了一些規(guī)模較小但容易找到的商店，而且它旗下的Cat & Jack童裝等內(nèi)部品牌也獲得了一些成功。麥克沙恩表示，如果塔吉特百貨的客流量繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)定、可持續(xù)的速度增長(zhǎng)，她就會(huì)購(gòu)入塔吉特的股票。同時(shí)她認(rèn)為，塔吉特百貨已經(jīng)朝著零售的新時(shí)代邁出了正確的步伐。她表示：“他們非常專(zhuān)注于成為顧客的全渠道零售商。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文的另一版本以《填補(bǔ)零售業(yè)的空白》為題載于2018年1月1日刊的《財(cái)富》雜志。

譯者：賈政景

To see how changing consumer habits are disrupting the retail world, drop by the Florida Mall, an upscale complex in Orlando owned by mall giant Simon Property Group . A few years back, with traffic declining at its “anchor” department stores, the shopping center converted a Lord & Taylor into three separate, smaller shops. Then, three years ago, a Nordstrom was repurposed as a Dick’s Sporting Goods after its lease expired, while a former Saks Fifth Avenue became a food court.

Robb Paltz, a structured-finance analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, sees the Orlando complex as a case study in the evolution of shopping. “Department stores do not create the same draw as anchors that they did 10 to 15 years ago,” Paltz wrote in a recent note. And places like the Florida Mall are looking to other retailers to fill the vacuum.

It’s no secret that brick-and-mortar retail has been struggling. The S&P Retail Select index has been anemic for three years, falling an average of 1% annually. Over 2017 through mid-December, even as total bankruptcies fell 37%, eight big retailers, including Toys “R” Us, filed for Chapter 11, according to BankruptcyData. And despite a holiday shopping season in which spending is expected to rise sharply, 2018 could be worse, says Garrick Brown, a retail and real estate analyst at Cushman & Wakefield—with department stores high on many pessimists’ watch lists.

Conventional wisdom depicts this slump as the result of a zero-sum contest between online and in-person shopping, where Amazonand its ilk unstoppably siphon money away from stores. The reality is more nuanced. In-store shopping is hardly disappearing—Forrester Research estimates that 87% of retail sales in 2017 took place in stores. But shoppers are shifting their loyalties, seeking out retailers who can compete for their time with low prices and online options in the era of Jeff Bezos’s “everything store.” Those trends are creating daunting challenges for retailers—but they offer opportunities for investors who take a chance on what are now some very inexpensive stocks.

Just because a retailer is profitable today doesn’t mean it’s poised for success. Department stores still produce a tremendous amount of cash, enabling them to endure for “decades as a zombie retailer,” says Bill Dreher, an analyst at Susquehanna. Macy’s , the nation’s largest department store chain, runs that risk. This fall its stock jumped after the chain reported that it had boosted free cash flow 26% through the first nine months of the current fiscal year. But it obtained those results in part by arranging to close about 100 stores—15% of its total fleet—in the face of a long-term sales decline. And Macy’s balance sheet could become the tinder that burns down its clearance racks. The chain has a 27% debt-to-sales ratio, high enough to pose problems if its revenue decline accelerates. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez says the company will likely need to cut its dividend—it currently yields 5.85%—in order to pare down that debt.

For investors bargain hunting in the beleaguered sector, industry analysts recommend a relatively simple formula: Seek out companies that have low debt, that are growing their omnichannel presence (the term that is used to describe retailers’ ability to serve customers either in-person or online), and that didn’t expand too fast during the mall boom of the 1990s and 2000s.

By these measures, Seattle-based Nordstrom looks competitive (despite its setback at the Florida Mall). It’s one of the few retailers still growing store count, through its off-price brand Nordstrom Rack, which is helping it reach discount-conscious shoppers. The chain currently has 117 full-size stores and 216 Rack stores. Nordstrom has also aggressively invested in online shopping: E commerce now accounts for more than 20% of sales companywide, giving Nordstrom an “opportunity for a future,” says Dreher. The stock has fallen 21% in the past year, after a failed attempt by the founding family to take the chain private. But at 15 times its estimated earnings for next year, it’s trading at an attractive discount.

The stumbles of department stores are creating openings for the giants that anchor strip malls. Five years ago, investors weren’t sure electronics retailer Best Buy would survive. But after cutting prices, beefing up its omnichannel presence, and reducing expenses, it has become an investor darling. Although its growing reliance on e commerce has eaten into margins, its stock is up 75% over the past three years. Best Buy offers a “good blueprint” for other struggling retailers, says Citi analyst Kate McShane. It recently laid out plans to increase revenues 9% over four years—which counts as a robust pace in bricks and mortar. And its price-to-2018-earnings ratio remains 29% below the S&P 500’s.

Target has looked sluggish compared with Walmart, in part because of its slow growth in fresh groceries. But its online sales have risen nearly 30% annually over the past two years. Targethas also been focusing on wooing the customers nearby malls lose. It’s remodeling stores and building smaller, easily navigable shops in densely populated neighborhoods, and it has scored wins with in-house brands like kids’ clothing line Cat & Jack. McShane says she’s waiting to see store traffic grow at a steady, sustainable pace before buying in, but she sees Target making the right moves for the new retail era. “They’re very focused on being the right omnichannel retailer for their customers,” she says.

A version of this article appears in the Jan. 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Filling Retail’s Empty Spaces.”