英國《金融時報》咨詢經濟學家預計，蘋果公司的海外持現相關稅負將由786億美元降至293億美元。

這相當于蘋果可以少納稅473億美元，“減負”規模相當大，少繳納的金額甚至超過了很多《財富》500強企業的市值。正如《金融時報》所說，蘋果享有的減稅金額比美國任意一家企業全年的利潤都高。

目前蘋果在海外持有2520億美元現金和投資。當前美國參議院的稅改議案提出，要將企業海外收入的稅率由35%降至14.5%，據此推算得出，蘋果的海外收入應繳稅額將減少約470億美元。（該推算也考慮到已投資的企業海外收入需按7.5%的稅率納稅，并假設蘋果不用向愛爾蘭補繳此前引起稅務紛爭的130億歐元稅款。）

根據目前美國共和黨人提出的議案，蘋果將只需要將部分海外持現轉回美國即可享受減稅。《金融時報》咨詢的經濟學家表示，該公司一次性向美國財政部繳納的海外收入匯回稅將為290億美元或者310億美元，具體金額要看蘋果與愛爾蘭稅款糾紛的結果而定。

值得一提的是，蘋果跟其他公司不一樣，已經為補繳此類稅做了高額撥備。只要將部分海外持現轉回美國，可能蘋果的財務報表里還會錄得盈利。《金融時報》指出：

“不同于其他大多數美國跨國企業，蘋果這些年已經為將來可能繳稅的部分計提了幾十億美元。目前已經撥備了364億美元，比可能面臨的稅負高。未來財報中可能將差額計為一次性收益。”

當然，預測可能受到很多因素影響，比如參議院和眾議院會不會就不同的議案達成妥協，能否順利將最終版本送交特朗普總統簽署成為法案。

如果稅改法獲批，還將帶來一個新問題：蘋果股價對于減稅的利好已經反映多少？《財富》的編輯肖恩·徒利此前在文章中詳細探討了這個問題。

另外還有長遠來看稅改方案將如何影響蘋果的問題。和其他受益于稅改的行業不同，包括蘋果在內的科技企業的股價最近出現下跌。這是因為投資者認為，稅收規定改動后，美國企業將利潤轉移到海外可能會更困難。（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審稿：夏林

According to economists consulted by the Financial Times (subscription required), the iPhone maker stands to see tax liabilities related to its overseas cash hoard decline to $29.3 billion from $78.6 billion.

That savings of $47.3 billion is an amount of money greater than the market value of many Fortune 500 companies and, as the FT notes, exceeds the annual profits of any other U.S. company.

Apple currently has $252 billion in foreign cash and investments. The $47 billion figure is based on the company repatriating all of that under the Senate’s current tax proposal, which would lower the corporate tax rate to 14.5% from 35% for overseas earnings. (It also takes account of a 7.5% rate for overseas earnings that have been reinvested and assumes Apple will not recover a disputed 13 billion euros in back taxes it owes to Ireland).

Under the proposed law, Apple would only have to repatriate a part of its foreign cash. The FT’s economist says the company’s immediate tax bill to the U.S. Treasury would be $31 billion or $29 billion depending on the outcome of the Ireland dispute.

It’s notable that, unlike other companies, Apple has already set aside a large amount to cover such liabilities—and that it would likely book a profit if it must repatriate part of its overseas cash. As the FT notes:

Unlike most other US multinationals, Apple has already taken billions of dollars of charges in past years to reflect its potential taxes. It has set aside $36.4bn for those bills — more than the tax charge it is now likely to face — and would likely record the difference as a one-off profit.

All of this, of course, is contingent on several things, including whether the Senate can reconcile its bill with the House’s version, and deliver a final version of the law for President Trump’s signature.

If the tax law is passed, it would also raise the question of how much of the potential tax savings are baked into Apple’s current share price—a question explored in detail by colleague Shawn Tully here.

There is also the matter of how the tax plan will affect Apple in the long term. Contrary to other industries, the share price of tech companies, including Apple, has dropped in light of other changes to the tax rules that make it harder to move profits overseas.