周二發(fā)布的一份最新報(bào)告稱，未來幾年內(nèi)，美國(guó)石油天然氣產(chǎn)量將獲得全球最高增幅。

巴黎智庫(kù)國(guó)際能源署（International Energy Agency）的報(bào)告，對(duì)于美國(guó)頁巖行業(yè)在沙特阿拉伯等國(guó)近兩年的壓制下的回彈能力，給出了巨大的認(rèn)可。這在美國(guó)政府的預(yù)測(cè)中已經(jīng)顯而易見。美國(guó)預(yù)測(cè)國(guó)內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量將從今年的平均920萬桶/年，到2018年增長(zhǎng)到990萬桶/天，打破1970年創(chuàng)下的史上最高記錄。

國(guó)際能源署表示，隨著頁巖油生產(chǎn)商找到更多產(chǎn)油方法，即使在更低油價(jià)的情況下依舊可實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利，從現(xiàn)在到2025年，美國(guó)將在全球石油供應(yīng)增幅中占到80%。到2020年代后期，美國(guó)將自上世紀(jì)50年代以來首次成為凈石油出口國(guó)。

天然氣行業(yè)也將迎來相同的趨勢(shì)，而且速度更快。國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè)，隨著中國(guó)、印度和東南亞從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)向清潔能源，對(duì)液化天然氣的需求將大幅增長(zhǎng)，到2020年代中期，美國(guó)將成為全球最大的液化天然氣出口國(guó)。

另外一個(gè)有利因素是，隨著電動(dòng)汽車的普及和內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車燃油效率的改善，到2040年，美國(guó)的石油需求將下降超過400萬桶/天。

The U.S. is set to enjoy the biggest increase in oil and gas production the world has ever seen over the next few years, according to a new report out Tuesday.

The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based think tank, is a thumping endorsement for the shale sector’s resilience in the face of a two-year attempt by Saudi Arabia and others to squeeze it. That’s already visible in U.S. government forecasts, which say U.S. crude oil production will rise from an average of 9.2 million barrels a day this year to 9.9 million barrels a day in 2018, a new all-time high beating a record set in 1970.

The IEA said the U.S. will account for 80% of the increase in global oil supply between now and 2025, as shale producers find ever more ways to pump oil profitably even at lower prices. By the late 2020s, the U.S. will become a net exporter of oil for the first time since the 1950s.

In natural gas the trend is the same, only faster. By the mid 2020s, the IEA expects the U.S. to become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, demand for which is set to rise strongly as China, India, and Southeast Asia all turn away from coal to cleaner energy sources.

Also helping the equation is the projection that oil demand in the U.S. is set to fall by over 4 million barrels a day by 2040, due to the spread of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency in those vehicles that still use combustion engines.

國(guó)際能源署署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾在倫敦召開的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示：“未來幾十年內(nèi)，美國(guó)將成為無可爭(zhēng)議的全球石油天然氣行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖?！彼J(rèn)為沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在戰(zhàn)后時(shí)期的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，在美國(guó)未來絕對(duì)產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)面前，也將相形見絀。2005年至2030年期間，美國(guó)總石油產(chǎn)量將翻一番，從不足每天1,500萬桶石油當(dāng)量增加到超過3,100萬桶。

這種轉(zhuǎn)變將賦予美國(guó)更大的外交影響力，減少美國(guó)對(duì)中東石油的依賴，使美國(guó)可以滿足個(gè)別發(fā)展中國(guó)家最緊迫的需求。

比羅爾表示：“未來美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿的位置，將比[今天的]能源出口國(guó)的國(guó)務(wù)卿更輕松?！?

國(guó)際能源署的預(yù)測(cè)與特朗普政府所追求的所謂“能源主導(dǎo)”地位大部分是重疊的 — 特朗普政府的這一策略，從其今年推翻奧巴馬時(shí)代的各種政策（尤其是美國(guó)退出《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》）和大幅增加用于石油天然氣勘探的聯(lián)邦土地資產(chǎn)供應(yīng)中可以顯而易見。

但即便這種“主導(dǎo)”地位也無法使美國(guó)完全擺脫對(duì)于潛在不可靠的外國(guó)能源的依賴。美國(guó)大部分煉油廠被設(shè)計(jì)用于加工外國(guó)混合原油，其中大部分是含硫量更高的重質(zhì)油，而頁巖油公司開采的多數(shù)“致密油”和從墨西哥灣與阿拉斯加開采的石油多數(shù)為低硫輕質(zhì)油。國(guó)際能源署表示，這意味著，美國(guó)將繼續(xù)從委內(nèi)瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等地進(jìn)口石油，同時(shí)美國(guó)原油的出口量會(huì)大幅增加。

但這并不意味著中東將失去其在全球能源市場(chǎng)中的關(guān)鍵地位。

比羅爾表示：“雖然美國(guó)將成為全球最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)，但中東依舊是最重要的出口區(qū)域，尤其是對(duì)于亞洲而言。”他指出，未來，即使中國(guó)、印度和東南亞地區(qū)的可再生能源將迎來繁榮，但這些國(guó)家對(duì)于石油天然氣的需求會(huì)繼續(xù)大幅增長(zhǎng)。

國(guó)際能源署稱：“在能源領(lǐng)域保持獨(dú)立固然重要，但實(shí)際上，在深度互聯(lián)的能源領(lǐng)域，沒有任何一個(gè)國(guó)家是孤島?！?

國(guó)際能源署在報(bào)告中表示，美國(guó)未來的主導(dǎo)地位將是全球能源市場(chǎng)的四個(gè)重要趨勢(shì)之一。其他趨勢(shì)分別是可再生能源的爆炸式增長(zhǎng)，尤其是光伏太陽能；中國(guó)對(duì)清潔能源的日益重視；以及全球電力需求的長(zhǎng)期大幅增長(zhǎng)，反映出新興市場(chǎng)生活水平的提高，尤其是空調(diào)需求的增加。國(guó)際能源署稱，制冷需求帶來的全球電力需求增幅，將高于電動(dòng)汽車的普及。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

“The U.S. will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said at a press conference in London. He said that the increase in absolute terms will dwarf even the ramp-ups delivered by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the post-war period. Between 2005 and 2030, total U.S. oil output will double from less than 15 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to over 31 million.

The transformation is set to give U.S. diplomacy considerably more clout, lessening the dependence on Middle Eastern oil and making the U.S. the answer to some developing nations’ most pressing needs.

“The U.S. Secretary of State will be sitting more comfortably in his seat than the the Secretary of State of [today’s] energy exporting countries,” Birol said.

The IEA’s forecasts overlap largely with the Trump administration’s pursuit of what it calls “energy dominance”—a strategy that has been visible in its rollback of various Obama-era policies this year (above all in the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord), and in a big expansion of federal acreage offered for oil and gas prospecting.

But even such “dominance” won’t completely free the U.S. of dependence on potentially unreliable sources of foreign energy. U.S. refineries are mostly engineered to process foreign crude blends which are heavier and have a higher sulfur content, whereas most of the “tight oil” being exploited by shale companies and oil extracted from the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska is lighter and “sweeter.” That means that the U.S. will continue to import from places such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, while U.S. crude will be exported in ever-greater volumes, the IEA said.

Nor does it mean that the Middle East will lose its key role in the world’s energy markets.

“Although the U.S. will become the biggest producer, the Middle East will still be the most important exporting region, especially for Asia,” Birol said, pointing out that China, India, and Southeast Asia will still demand big incremental amounts of oil and gas in future, even allowing for the boom in renewables in those countries.

“The notion of independence in energy is important, but in practice, no country is an island in a deeply interconnected energy world,” the IEA said.

Emerging U.S. dominance was one of four mega-trends in world energy markets highlighted by the IEA in its review. The others were the explosive growth of renewable energy sources, especially solar photo-voltaic energy; China’s increasing prioritization of cleaner energy; and the huge long-term rise in global electricity demand, reflecting higher living standards in the emerging world—notably in the shape of demand for air conditioning. The IEA said demand for cooling will add more to global electricity demand than the spread of electric vehicles.