蘋果在發布新款iPhone 8和8 Plus的同時，跳過了“9”的版本，直接發布了999美元的iPhone X。這不是算錯了，而是為了紀念第一代iPhone發布十周年。公司將iPhone X定位成價格高檔的頂端產品，這可能會帶來一個令人驚訝的結果：799美元起售的iPhone 8 Plus將會賣得更好。

蘋果打破命名規則推出iPhone X的原因之一，是想表明這是iPhone的轉折點，是預示著第二個十年即將登場的產品。蘋果給予了iPhone X一切吹捧和最高的配置，希望它成為iPhone大步邁入新時代的象征。公司沒有把iPhone X命名為iPhone 9，是想要傳達一個信息：iPhone X太特殊了，不僅僅是下一代iPhone——它慶祝了蘋果過去十年所做的一切，為iPhone下一個十年的創新鋪平了道路。當然，懷疑論者指出，三星的Galaxy S8和S8+的無邊框屏幕和OLED技術都要優于蘋果。諷刺的是，iPhone X每英寸458個像素的豪華“視網膜顯示屏”的供貨商是三星公司。

那為什么蘋果要給iPhone X定價999美元呢？這個高昂的價格可能超出了許多有意購買iPhone的消費者的承受范圍。這個高價可能會讓他們轉向iPhone 8 Plus。原因在于那個被稱為“極端逆轉”的著名的消費者決策偏向。它的意思是：當消費者面前有三款產品，定價分別為高、中、低時，他們傾向于把自己的選擇從低端款提升成中端款。消費者會感覺他們沒有買最貴的那一款，“省錢了”，而這款“折中的產品”是個好選擇，既不太貴，也不太便宜。

在餐廳的酒水單上，這種情況經常出現。你不會點最便宜的酒，也不會點最貴的，而是選擇價格居中的。汽車也是如此，售價9萬美元的道奇蝰蛇讓2.8萬美元的道奇Charger看起來很棒。

會有一些消費者愿意一擲千金，只為擁有一款頂尖的iPhone X。然而，iPhone X在產品線上所扮演的更大角色，恐怕是讓iPhone 8 Plus顯得更加劃算。相比699美元起價的4.7英寸iPhone 8，人們可以“勉強接受”5.5英寸iPhone 8 Plus。比起iPhone X，這能“節省”大概200美元。頂配的iPhone X把二選一的題目變成了三選一，帶來的光環效應讓它身價不那么高的兄弟iPhone 8 Plus受益。這種營銷手法也部分掩蓋了iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus各比前一代產品漲價50美元的事實。

最后的結果是，蘋果不需要賣出很多iPhone X。如果iPhone X的推出讓iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus的銷量比例向后者傾斜，蘋果依然可以獲取巨大的利潤。

蘋果明顯是在測試消費者的忠誠度和定價邊界。有個說法認為，iPhone X、以及iPhone X高昂的價格，表明這些設備在消費者的生活中扮演了更大的角色，而不僅只是一個通訊工具。智能手機是人們生活的中心，人們對它們的要求也越來越多。顯然，蘋果需要維護其高端定位，并通過推高iPhone的平均售價獲得可觀的利潤。但這個游戲也有風險，尤其是在印度和中國這樣的大型新興市場，蘋果在這些市場的占有率較低，甚至還在下降。過去，蘋果會推出低價產品，努力獲取新興市場消費者的青睞，例如定價599美元左右的iPhone 5C就在印度表現出色。而這次，蘋果選擇了相反的提價方向，這可能會讓公司在亞洲市場陷入嚴重劣勢。

在美國市場，時間會證明這款被稱作新型奢侈品的iPhone X在銷量上會有怎樣的表現。不過如果iPhone 8 Plus才是更大的贏家，也不用感到吃驚。（財富中文網）

作者莫漢比爾·S·紹尼是凱洛格商學院（Kellogg School of Management）的教授和七本管理學著作的作者，其中包括即將出版的《有感情的企業》。

譯者：嚴匡正

Apple’s launch of the $999 iPhone X, skipping over a version “9” by also unveiling its new iPhone 8 and 8 Plus, isn’t a miscount, but commemorates the 10 years since it launched its first iPhone. By positioning the iPhone X (pronounced as “ten”) as its superlative product with the big price tag, Apple might realize a surprising outcome: greater sales for the iPhone 8 Plus, priced at $799 and up.

One reason that Apple (aapl, -0.76%) broke with the numbering scheme with the iPhone X is to showcase it as an inflection point for the iPhone—a shape of things to come for its second decade. With all its fanfare and use of superlatives, Apple wants the iPhone X to stand out as a quantum leap into a new era for the iPhone. By not calling the iPhone X the iPhone 9, Apple is trying to convey the message that the iPhone X is too special to be just the next-generation iPhone—it celebrates all that Apple has done for 10 years, and paves the way for the next 10 years of innovation for the iPhone. Of course, skeptics point out that Samsung’s Galaxy S8 and S8+ beat Apple to the market with the “edge-to-edge” display and OLED technology. Ironically, Samsung supplies Apple with the iPhone X’s gorgeous 458 pixels-per-inch “super retina display.”

But why would Apple launch the iPhone X at $999, a super-premium price point that may put it out of reach for many aspiring iPhone customers? The high price point of the iPhone X may paradoxically bring those customers to the iPhone 8 Plus. The reason is a well-known consumer decision-making bias called “extremeness aversion.” Here’s how it works: When customers are offered three products—high-priced, mid-priced, and low-priced—they tend to gravitate upward from the low-priced to the mid-priced product. They feel that they are “saving money” by not buying the most expensive product and they are getting a good deal with the “compromise product,” which is neither extremely expensive nor too cheap.

It happens in restaurants with wine lists. You don’t order the cheapest or the most expensive bottle, but prefer to choose something in the middle. With cars, the $90,000 Dodge Viper makes the $28,000 Dodge Charger seem like a good deal.

There will be some consumers who will pay a thousand bucks for the bragging rights of owning the top-of-the-line iPhone X. However, the bigger role that the iPhone X may play in the product line is to make the iPhone 8 Plus look like a better deal. Instead of buying a 4.7-inch iPhone 8 ($699 and up), people can “settle” for a 5.5-inch iPhone 8 Plus and “save” about $200 compared to the iPhone X. By going from a two-product choice set to a three-product choice set, the super-premium iPhone X creates a halo effect that benefits its less prestigious cousin—the iPhone 8 Plus. This marketing sleight-of-hand partially obscures the fact that the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus both cost $50 more than their predecessors did.

The upshot is that Apple doesn’t need to sell a whole lot of iPhone Xs; it can still make out like a bandit if the introduction of the iPhone X into the choice set changes the ratio of iPhone 8 vs. iPhone 8 Plus sales in favor of the iPhone 8 Plus.

Apple is clearly testing the frontiers of consumer loyalty and price premiums. One argument is that the iPhone X and its high price reflect the fact that these devices play a larger role in consumers’ lives, far more than just a means of communication. The smartphone is the center of people’s lives, and more is demanded of them. Clearly, Apple wants to protect its premium positioning and make hefty profits by driving up the average selling price of the iPhone. However, this is a risky game to play, especially in large emerging markets like India and China, where Apple’s market share is low and shrinking. In the past, Apple has made an effort to court emerging market customers by launching lower-priced products like the iPhone 5C, priced around $599, which has done well in India. This time, Apple has chosen to go in the opposite direction by moving up in price, a move that might put it at a serious disadvantage in Asian markets.

In the U.S. market, time will tell how well the iPhone X, touted as the new luxury product, will do in terms of sales. But don’t be surprised if the big winner is the iPhone 8 Plus.

Mohanbir S. Sawhney is a professor at Kellogg School of Management and the author of seven books on management, including the forthcoming book, The Sentient Enterprise.