近日，菲亞特克萊斯勒首席執行官塞爾吉奧·馬爾喬內對分析師透露，這家意大利-美國聯合汽車廠商預測，明年Jeep的年銷量將增長30%左右，達到200萬輛，而該品牌的年交貨量最終可達到700萬輛，原因是全球SUV需求量大幅上升。Jeep是以美國為主要市場的越野車品牌，2009年菲亞特收購克萊斯勒進而獲得Jeep控制權時，該品牌的銷量僅略高于30萬輛，從這個角度來說，這樣的增長速度將繼續引起關注。

就算馬爾喬內有充足的理由來預測SUV有更多增長空間，但這樣的發展速度仍然前所未有。Jeep至少需要一款年銷量超百萬的車型。IHS Markit的數據顯示，2010年以來全球平均年銷量達到如此高水平的只有豐田卡羅拉，但那是一款平價日用緊湊型轎車，和Jeep的所有產品都有天壤之別。

65歲的馬爾喬內曾說，菲克可能向對待超跑業務法拉利那樣剝離其他部門。雖然此言引發了對Jeep未來的猜測，甚至讓長城汽車有了想法，但這個品牌絕對動不得。Jeep已經成為菲克大眾產品規劃的核心。缺了它，菲克就有可能難以吸引它需要的合作伙伴，從而應對席卷汽車行業的顛覆浪潮。

對于Jeep，長期從事汽車行業分析和咨詢工作的瑪麗安·科勒說：“我想不到菲克怎么會賣掉它。不管用Jeep換來什么都將得不償失。”

據了解情況的人士透露，菲克高層正在考慮的方案包括剝離高端業務瑪莎拉蒂和阿爾法·羅密歐以及汽車零部件業務。同時，菲克想保留Jeep，以穩定包括道奇和Ram在內的大眾產品業務。這位消息人士要求不透露其身份，因為這些是菲克高層私下討論的話題。菲克發言人拒絕就此發表評論。

Jeep已經轉型為跨國廠商, 摩根士丹利對其估值為230億歐元（270億美元）。今年，Jeep開始在印度生產SUV，隨后將在中國、巴西和意大利設立新工廠。在7月27日的業績電話會議上，馬爾喬內說SUV和跨界車有潛力占據全球汽車行業三分之一的份額，或者說年銷量最高可達3500萬輛；而憑借其聲譽和血統，Jeep有可能在SUV和跨界車領域獲得20%的份額。

除了已有的自由俠、指南者、切諾基和大切諾基，今后幾年Jeep家族還將增加Wagoneer、Grand Wagoneer和一款匹卡。要達到馬爾喬內預測的銷量，這些車型的銷量之和得比去年菲克的總銷量高50%左右。

說到馬爾喬內的長期預測，晨星汽車行業分析師理查德·希爾格特認為：“目前看來這差不多是張空頭支票。”但希爾格特也指出，幾年前大多數觀察人士都對到2018年Jeep的全年銷量能否達到200萬輛持懷疑態度，而現在看來這是個可以實現的預期。

保留業務不可持續

在業績電話會議上，馬爾喬內清楚地闡述了菲克不剝離Jeep的理由，而且警告說其他業務的健康水平或許不足以維持下去。

他說：“我們確實需要對那些保留下來的業務感到擔心。如果把所有看起來讓人感興趣的東西都賣掉，我覺得最后剩下來的業務將不夠理想，而且無法正常運轉。”

缺了表現強勁而且覆蓋全球市場的Jeep，菲克在面對潛在合作伙伴時基本上就沒有拿得出手的東西了，而菲克可能需要這樣的合作伙伴來彌補自己的戰略短板。在美國，菲克產品的燃油效率是最低的，它在自動駕駛等技術上的投資也少于規模較大的競爭對手。

剝離瑪莎拉蒂、阿爾法·羅密歐和包括Magneti Marelli、Teksid以及Comau在內的零部件業務可能有助于菲克實現到明年底削減債務42億歐元的目標。分析師估算，瑪莎拉蒂和阿爾法·羅密歐的價值有望高達70億歐元，而零部件業務或許最多能換回50億歐元。

股價飆升

上周三，菲克在美國和意大利的股票價格均收于歷史最高點。隨后一天這只股票繼續上揚，在米蘭意大利證交所一度上漲6.5%。在紐約，上午9點紐約證交所開盤前菲克已上揚4.3%。

希爾格特說，菲克將剝離業務的猜測讓更多投資者意識到該公司“的價值遭到了極度低估”。在米蘭，菲克仍是Stoxx 600汽車和零部件指數中估值水平最低的股票之一。

希爾格特指出：“現在我們開始看到其估值有所上揚，而且引起了更多關注。畢竟，這家公司還是有一些有價值資產的。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

The Italian-American automaker is forecasting Jeep’s annual sales to jump about 30 percent next year to 2 million vehicles and predicts the brand could eventually deliver 7 million units a year as appetite for SUVs surges worldwide, Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne has told analysts. That would continue impressive growth for a U.S.-focused off-road brand that had little more than 300,000 deliveries in 2009, when Fiat took control of Jeep as part of its acquisition of Chrysler.

Even if Marchionne has plenty of reasons to see more growth ahead for the sport utility vehicles, that level of expansion would be unprecedented. Jeep would need at least one model to sell more than 1 million a year. Only the Toyota Corolla, an affordable bread-and-butter compact that’s unlike anything Jeep offers, averaged that much global volume since the start of the decade, according to IHS Markit.

While Marchionne, 65, helped stoke speculation about Jeep’s future by saying Fiat Chrysler could spin off more divisions like it did with its Ferrari supercar unit, the brand is all but untouchable, despite drawing interest from China’s Great Wall Motor Co. Jeep has emerged as a the focal point of the automaker’s mass-market car plans, without which the company could scarcely attract a partner necessary to weather the disruption looming over the auto industry.

“I don’t see how FCA could sell it,” Maryann Keller, a longtime industry analyst and consultant, said of Jeep. “Whatever they got for it would hardly replace what they lost.”

Fiat Chrysler executives are considering options including a plan to spin off the upscale Maserati and Alfa Romeo divisions and its car-components operations, according to people familiar with the discussions. The company intends to keep Jeep to anchor the mass-market car business that also includes the Dodge and Ram brands, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. A Fiat Chrysler spokesman declined to comment.

Jeep, which is valued by Morgan Stanley at 23 billion euros ($27 billion), is already being transformed into a global player. SUV production started in India this year, following new plants in China, Brazil and Italy. Marchionne sees SUVs and crossovers as potentially becoming a third of the global industry, or as much as 35 million vehicles per year. With Jeep’s cachet and pedigree, it could capture a fifth of that market, he said on an earnings call on July 27.

The brand’s lineup will expand with the addition of the Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer and a pickup in the coming years, joining the Renegade, Compass, Cherokee and Grand Cherokee in showrooms. To reach Marchionne’s sales projection, those models would have to combine to sell about 50 percent more vehicles than what all of Fiat Chrysler delivered last year.

“It seems pretty pie-in-the-sky at this point,” Richard Hilgert, an autos analyst at Morningstar, said of Marchionne’s long-term projection. Still, he noted most observers were dubious years ago that Jeep could expand to 2 million in annual sales by 2018, a projection that now looks reachable.

Unsustainable Stump

Marchionne spoke plainly about the rationale against splitting Jeep from the rest of Fiat Chrysler on the earnings call, warning that the remainder of the company might not be healthy enough to survive.

“We do need to worry about the stump that’s left behind,” Marchionne said. “If we start picking away all the things that appear to be interesting to people, then I think we’re going to end up with a sub-optimal business that cannot run.”

And without a robust and global Jeep, Fiat Chrysler has little to offer a potential partner, which would be needed to address strategic weaknesses. The automaker has the least fuel-efficient fleet in the U.S., and it’s poured less investment into technology like autonomous driving than bigger rivals.

Spinning off Maserati, Alfa Romeo and parts divisions including Magneti Marelli, Teksid and Comau probably would help toward Fiat Chrysler’s goal to eliminate 4.2 billion euros in debt by the end of next year. The luxury-car operations could be worth as much as 7 billion euros, while the components businesses may fetch up to 5 billion euros, analysts estimate.

Share Surge

Fiat Chrysler’s shares in both the U.S. and Italy closed at record highs Wednesday. The rise continued Thursday with the stock gaining as much as 6.5 percent in Milan and climbing 4.3 percent as of 9 a.m. in New York, before the start of regular trading.

The deal speculation surrounding Fiat Chrysler has more investors realizing that the company is “exceedingly undervalued,” Hilgert said. The Milan-listed shares are still among the cheapest in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index.

“Now we’re starting to see the valuation perk up a bit and getting some interest,” Hilgert said. “There are some valuable assets in this organization after all”