據(jù)美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站Zillow Group的數(shù)據(jù)，18到34歲的青年一代已經(jīng)成為美國(guó)最大的買(mǎi)房群體，其中有近一半的人生活在城市郊區(qū)。隨著生娃的需求迫在眉睫，他們也越來(lái)越追求大戶型的房子，同時(shí)也更加鐘愛(ài)大尺寸的汽車(chē)。據(jù)福特公司估算，今年上半年，美國(guó)大型SUV的銷(xiāo)量躍升了11個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而中型和小型SUV的銷(xiāo)量只分別上漲了9%和4%。

購(gòu)車(chē)網(wǎng)站Autotrader分析師米歇爾·克雷布斯指出：“隨著青年人開(kāi)始購(gòu)房成家并且積攢起一定的財(cái)富，他們對(duì)大型SUV的需求也在增長(zhǎng)。他們的第一部車(chē)可能是緊湊型SUV，不過(guò)成家之后，他們的需求就發(fā)生了變化。”

Americans aged about 18 to 34 have become the largest group of homebuyers, and almost half live in the suburbs, according to Zillow Group data. As they shop for bigger homes to accommodate growing families, they’re upsizing their vehicles to match. U.S. industry sales of large SUVs have jumped 11 percent in the first half of the year, Ford Motor Co. estimates, compared with increases of 9 percent for midsize and 4 percent for small SUVs.

“We do see that demographic group driving larger sport utility sales as they acquire homes, create families and gain some wealth,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst at car-shopping website Autotrader. “They started with compact sport utilities and now, with families, they’re moving up.”

年輕人在郊區(qū)買(mǎi)房的熱潮也讓他們的父母感到很驚訝，美國(guó)的年輕人原本寧可不攢錢(qián)買(mǎi)房，也不愿意在吃上委屈自己的肚子。前幾年也就是“千禧一代”剛剛大學(xué)畢業(yè)那幾年，由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)整體疲軟，加上他們有一大堆助學(xué)貸款要還，很多年輕人都奉行晚婚晚育，也沒(méi)有將買(mǎi)房提上議事日程。隨著越來(lái)越多的年輕人漸漸克服了這些困難，他們也開(kāi)始想過(guò)上“嬰兒潮”一代父母的生活——生娃，在郊區(qū)買(mǎi)大房子，開(kāi)大排量SUV。

Zillow首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯文賈·古德?tīng)柋硎荆骸半S著越來(lái)越多的年輕人搬出父母的地下室——當(dāng)然還有不少仍然住在那里，我們認(rèn)為，對(duì)購(gòu)房的健康需求還會(huì)繼續(xù)持續(xù)。”去年千禧一代已經(jīng)占到了美國(guó)所有購(gòu)房者的42%?！耙郧?，‘千禧一代’推遲了買(mǎi)房、結(jié)婚和生子，但現(xiàn)在他們做出了與父母非常相似的選擇?！?/p>

嬰兒車(chē)，兒童床

很多美國(guó)年輕人都傾向于購(gòu)買(mǎi)三排座的大型SUV，好有足夠的空間放下孩子的嬰兒車(chē)和便捷式的兒童床。據(jù)研究機(jī)購(gòu)LMC Automotive預(yù)測(cè)，從現(xiàn)在起到2022年，中型SUV的銷(xiāo)量將增長(zhǎng)16個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而像福特征服者和雪佛蘭太浩這樣的全尺寸SUV的銷(xiāo)量則會(huì)猛增四分之一左右。

據(jù)福特公司今年六月進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，在“千禧一代”心目中，生孩子、在郊區(qū)買(mǎi)房、買(mǎi)一輛大號(hào)SUV的重要性，要高于居住在核心城市或者用其他交通手段出行。

福特的美國(guó)銷(xiāo)售分析師埃里?！つ嗽诓稍L中表示：“年輕人的結(jié)婚年齡無(wú)疑是推后了，但他們還是想要孩子的。只要他們開(kāi)始生兒育女，在孩子們成長(zhǎng)和交友的過(guò)程中，他們就需要更大的空間?！?/p>

今天，美國(guó)中型和大型SUV的最大買(mǎi)主是35到44歲之間的中年人。這代人又稱(chēng)做“X世代”，不過(guò)其人口總數(shù)顯著少于“千禧一代”的8000萬(wàn)人。

更多的買(mǎi)主

默克表示：“未來(lái)10到15年，又將有2500萬(wàn)人邁進(jìn)35到44歲的年齡階段。大型和中型SUV的銷(xiāo)量也將呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，這種趨勢(shì)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開(kāi)始了。”

最近幾年，緊湊型SUV的銷(xiāo)量已經(jīng)超過(guò)了豐田凱美瑞和本田雅閣等中型家轎。默克并沒(méi)有說(shuō)明福特公司是否認(rèn)為中大型SUV的銷(xiāo)量會(huì)反超緊湊型SUV。不過(guò)據(jù)福特公司預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)五到七年里，美國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)上SUV的占有率將從現(xiàn)在的40%上漲到45%。

其中，千禧一代將成為購(gòu)買(mǎi)SUV的絕對(duì)主力。據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心的數(shù)據(jù)，目前，美國(guó)30至34歲女性的生育率已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1964年以來(lái)的最高水平。

比如Zillow分析古德?tīng)柧唾I(mǎi)了一臺(tái)奧迪Q5：“以我為例，我當(dāng)然是需要大空間車(chē)型的，因?yàn)檐?chē)子如果小了，跟孩子一起出行是很不方便的?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

The shift to suburbia may surprise those who’ve chided millennials for being more interested in pricey avocado toast than in saving for a home. Much of the generation delayed marriage, childbearing and home ownership after graduating with heaping student-loan debt and entering a weak job market. As more millennials overcome this, many want the life of their baby-boomer parents -- the kids, the house in the ’burbs and the beefy SUV.

“As more people move out of their parents’ basement -- and there’s still quite a few living there -- we expect to see continued healthy demand for homes,” said Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow, which found millennials made up 42 percent of homebuyers last year. “Millennials delayed home ownership, just like they delayed getting married and having kids, but now they’re making very similar decisions to their parents.”

Strollers, Cribs

More millennials are expected to move up into bigger SUVs with three rows of seats and enough cargo space for strollers and portable cribs. Sales of midsize SUVs will grow by 16 percent between now and 2022, while deliveries of the biggest rigs -- think Ford Expeditions and Chevrolet Tahoes -- will jump 25 percent, according to a forecast by researcher LMC Automotive.

Millennials ranked having children, buying a suburban home and driving a big family vehicle higher in terms of importance than living in a major city or relying on alternate forms of transportation in a survey that Ford conducted in June.

“There’s no question people are waiting longer, but people still want to have children,” Erich Merkle, Ford’s U.S. sales analyst, said in an interview. “As long as people have children and those children grow and acquire friendships, it requires more space.”

Today, the largest group of midsize and large SUV buyers is between the ages of 35 and 44, Merkle said. That cohort, known as Gen X, is significantly smaller than millennials, who are about 80 million strong.

More Buyers

“There’s going to be an extra 25 million people passing into and through the 35- to 44-year-old demographic over the next 10 to 15 years,” Merkle said. “That’s going to lead to a gradual increase in the growth of large and midsize SUVs that’s already starting to happen.”

Merkle wouldn’t say if Ford expected sales of larger SUVs to eventually outpace compact utilities, a segment that’s surged past family sedans like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. Ford forecasts that SUVs will grow to 45 percent of the U.S. market in the next five to seven years, from 40 percent now.

Increasingly, that growth will be driven by millennials, the oldest of whom have lifted the annual birthrate for women 30 to 34 to the highest level since 1964, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“As a sample size of one, I certainly need a lot of space because it’s really tough to travel with a child,” said Zillow’s Gudell, who drives an Audi Q5 SUV.